2026 Final Election Predictions

2026 Final Election Predictions

US Senate

Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D

2026 Prediction: 53 D, 47 R

Democrats to pickup Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and one of the following: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina.

Notes:
* I'm going with Troy Jackson to flip Maine even though Susan Collins has a history of outperforming the polls. I will not be surprised if Collins wins.
* The final polls show the Democratic candidates leading in both Iowa and Kansas, a tiny edge for the independent candidate opposing the Republican incumbent in Nebraska, and a tie in South Carolina. But given the Republican lean to those states, I'm think the blue team has a strong chance of picking up one of those 4. Winning 2 is not out of the question.

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US House

Current Senate: 220 R, 215 D

2026 Prediction: 233 D, 202 R

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Governor's Races

Democrats to pickup Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Nevada.

Notes: Here I'm playing it a little aggressively for the Democrats.
* Georgia has a dead heat race, but I'm calling this one as a flip to the blue team based on low enthusiasm among Republicans. It looks like Democrat Jon Ossoff might win reelection to the Senate by 10 points or more, and there are only so many Ossoff voters who might vote for the Republican candidate in the gubernatorial race there.
* Kansas has looked all year like it's going to flip to the Republicans. Two high quality polls have just been released. Emerson has the Republican up by 5, while the Washington Post has the Democrat up by 6. So what the heck, I'll call this one a Democratic hold.
* There hasn't been much polling in Nevada and the incumbent Republican has looked tough to beat. But Democratic turnout looks good so far and the only recent quality poll of this race shows the Democrat up by 4.

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2024 Final Predictions. I'm Calling It A Blue Wave. Here's Why.

Harris to win the electoral college 325 to 213.

Here's why I'm calling all the swing states for Harris:
** More than one-third of the vote is already in. We know the demographics of which groups are turning out in force and which are not. We also have high-quality exit polls.
** Women are voting far more than men. Even a massive turnout by men on election day is hardly likely to close the gap. Harris leads female voters by 14% while Trump leads by only 6% with men.

** The vote is showing extraordinary crossover support for Harris by registered Republicans. Here's an example:
North Carolina:
Actual early voters: 55% Harris, 43% Trump, 3% others
Early voter party ID: Dem 33%, GOP 34%, Ind 33%
- Assuming virtually Democrats and about 60% of independents are voting for Harris, to get to 55% of the total vote Harris must be getting in excess of 10% of Republicans. PA and WI show similar rates of defection of Republican voters. The rate is even higher in AZ, GA and MI.

** Harris is doing well with the most crucial voting block: seniors. Minorities are not defecting to Trump the way Republicans have hoped. Younger men are not turning out the way Trump needs.

** Harris has outstanding get-out-the-vote operations. Trump's are a disaster.

** Harris has a massive fundraising lead.

** Democrats are way ahead in voter enthusiasm in a key Gallup poll.

** Late-deciders are breaking for Harris.

** And finally, a bombshell poll dropped yesterday: Harris by 3% in Iowa. This is from the highly-respected Selzer organization, who, for example, correctly predicted that Trump would win Iowa by 14% in 2020. If Harris is doing anything like as well as this poll suggests, Democrats will have a good night on Tuesday.

The Senate

Current Senate: 51 D, 49 R

New Senate: 50 D, 50 R

This forecast for the Senate may be overly-optimistic, but here we go.
* The Republicans will pick up West Virginia.
* Jon Tester has survived close contests before in Montana, but I think this one is out of reach. The Republican will probably win. (Or maybe Tester survives but we lose NV or OH).
* I'm calling Texas for Democrat Colin Allred. The polls are within the margin of error, and I expect Harris to lose Texas by only 3 points or so. That's close enough for Allred to knock off Ted Cruz, whom nobody likes.

The House

Current House: 221 R, 214 D

New House: 222 D, 213 R

Gubernatorial

Democrats to pickup North Carolina.

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2024 US Senate Races

Current Senate: 51 D and 49 R

Final Prediction: 50 D and 50 R
Democrats to pickup TX. Republicans to pickup MT and WV.

Overview: (6/20/23) Though confident for the moment of holding the White House and sanguine about regaining control of the House, the chances for the Democrats to hold the Senate after 2024 are slim. 23 seats currently held by the blue team are up for grabs versus only 11 for the GOP. Furthermore, the Democrats have a number of incumbents running for reelection in red states, while none of the sitting Republicans are in blue states.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. I put all open-seat races on the competitive list. This post will be updated continuously until election day.

Likely to be competitive and open-seat:

 

Arizona
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Independent: Krysten Sinema (incumbent)

Democrat: Congressman Ruben Gallego

Republican: Former Journalist Kari Lake?
Overview: (6/20/23) The bad news is Krysten Sinema, now an "independent" still caucusing with the Democrats, may run for reelection. Although she has no chance of winning, she might siphon enough votes from Ruben Gallego to hand this race to the GOP. The good news is that Gallego is a great candidate, Arizona is trending blue, and Arizona Republicans are having a hard time coming up with a strong candidate.
(12/3/23): So far it looks like Sinema is running as an independent, and Republicans will get stuck with batshit-crazy former journalist Kari Lake, who still believes she is the Governor of Arizona even though she it not. Polls suggest Lake and Sinema will split the conservative vote, allowing Ruben Gallego to win with a plurality.

California
Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Congressman Adam Schiff or Congresswoman Katie Porter (likely) (incumbent Laphonza Butler retiring)

Republican: ?
Overview: (12/3/23): California has a jungle primary, and it's looking like the runoff could be between two Democrats. That could give a big boost to Democrats in California up and down the ticket.

Delaware
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester  (incumbent tom Carper retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester will win.

Florida
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Rick Scott (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Overview 12/3/23: Scott is the overwhelming favorite at this point. There is the chance, however slim, that Florida will swing back to the left a bit. The Republican hegemony in Florida is increasingly unpopular.

Indiana
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Mike Braun retiring and running for Governor)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: Mike Braun (R) is retiring to run for Governor, but Democratic chances in Indiana have gone from slim to none.

 

Maryland

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George's County Executive (incumbent Ben Cardin retiring)

Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win.

Michigan

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin? Debbie Stabenow (incumbent Debbie Stabenow retiring)

Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?
Overview (6/20/23): This one's probably simple. Biden beat Trump by 3% in Michigan in 2020, and the Democrats are likely to field a stronger candidate than the Republicans.
(12/3/23): James Craig is the black former Detroit Chief of Police. The idea that he could cobble together a victory by uniting Michigan Republicans and some of the urban black vote is an intriguing one, but I'll believe it when I see it. Craig tried to run for Governor in 2022, and it went pretty badly. Democrat Elissa Slotkin is running a strong campaign.

Montana

Rating: Toss Up

Democrat: Jon Tester (incumbent)
Republican: Businessman Tim Sheehy
Overview (6/20/23): Republicans are more likely to win this seat than incumbent Jon Tester, but he's defied expectations in the past. In 2012, Tester won 48.6% to Republican Denny Rehberg's 44.9% with the Libertarian candidate taking 6.6%. This happened while Mitt Romney beat Obama by 14% in Montana. Tester pulled off an impressive 50.3% to 46.8% victory in 2018. But I think his luck might be about to run out. Democrats have preformed abysmally in the past couple of elections in the northern plains.
(12/3/23): It looks like Republicans are going with racist, misogynist homophobe and political novice Tim Sheehy. Tester is polling well against Sheehy, but he will need every possible break to win.

Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23) Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice with little fundraising ability as her opponent.

Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23) Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice with little fundraising ability as her opponent.

New Jersey
Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Congressman Andy Kim (likely)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): Incumbent Bob Menendez is going to jail. Although he hasn't said he's for sure not running for another term, it doesn't matter. The New Jersey Republican party is in bad shape and Democrats have little to fear in this race.

Texas
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democrat: Congressman Colin Allred (likely)
Overview (6/20/23): So Trump only carried Texas by 5 points in 2020. If the GOP ticket proves a total disaster in 2024 (Trump running from prison or something), Texas might actually go blue. That could spell trouble for Ted Cruz who only won by 3 points in 2018.
12/3/23: The $13 million Allred has raised sounds impressive until you realize that Cruz has raised $40 million. Democrats should not kid themselves about this one; it will take a miracle to win.

Utah
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: State House Speaker Brad Wilson? (incumbent Mitt Romney retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. The Republican will win.

West Virginia
Rating: Guaranteed Republican pickup
Democrat: ? (incumbent Joe Manchin retiring)
Republican: Governor Jim Justice (likely)
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Republican Jim Justice will win.

Wisconsin

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): So far no Republican has announced to run against Tammy Baldwin. She's looking like a pretty good bet in Wisconsin, which, after trending red for years has started swinging back a bit towards blue. Janet Protasiewicz's 11 point win in this year's Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a good sign.
Overview (12/3/23): It's still the sound of silence on the Republican side. That's good - the less interested Wisconsin Republicans are in voting in 2024, the more likely Joe Biden wins.

 

Unlikely to be competitive:

Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D). Republicans have had high hopes for Connecticut some years ago. Those hopes wnet nowhere.

Hawai'i: Mazie Hirono (D). Even in Republican-leaning years, the GOP has gotten nowhere in Hawai'i congressional races.

Maine: Angus King (I-Democratic caucus). King is quite popular, and Maine seems to like incumbents. 

Massachusetts (D). The only way Elizabeth Warren is not still a U.S. Senator years from now is if she runs for higher office.

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D). Strong approval ratings protect Klobuchar from vulnerability. Minnesota has bucked the trend in the northern prairie and trended blue.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R). As I noted in a post in 2008, here's how voting works in Mississippi in statewide races: white people vote Republican, black people vote Democratic. The population demographics needed for a serious challenge to Wicker just aren't there.

Missouri: Josh Hawley (R) is a contemptible human being; Missouri doesn't care.

Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) is running for another full term and Pete Ricketts (R) is running in a special to complete the term to which he was appointed. Democrats hope in Nebraska to continue to carry the single electoral vote of the Omaha area (NE-2) and maybe some day win a House seat. But a Senate seat ain't happening.

 

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D) can expect an easy win as New Mexico trends blue.

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Extremely unlikely any Republican will win a statewide race in New York.

North Dakota. Kevin Cramer (R). Does this state even still have a Democratic party?

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. (D). Could become competitive but I'll believe it when I see it.

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Republicans have made serious inroads in a lot of what were considered blue states in the past few years. But not in Rhode Island.

Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) is the perfect representative of the ultra-right-wing politics that have gripped Tennessee.

Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I, Democratic caucus). There is no more popular Senator among his constituents than Bernie.

Virginia: Tim Caine (D). Democrats sometimes receive nasty shocks in Virginia, but with Biden likely to carry the state by double-digits this race is unlikely to be competitive.

Washington: Maria Cantwell (D). Republicans have become far less competitive in statewide races in Washington in recent years, and the blue team did great in 2022. The GOP nominee for this seat doesn't have a prayer.

Wyoming: John Barrasso (R). Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

 

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2022 Election Predictions

US Senate:
Current Senate: 50 D and 50 R 
Prediction: 51 D and 49 R
Democrats to pickup PA.

US House:
Current House: 222 D and 213 R
Prediction: 225 R and 210 D

Governor's Races:
Democrats to pickup: Maryland and Massachusetts

Random observations:
* Assuming that Democrats squeak by the hold the Senate, the biggest story of this election is whether Republicans win a big enough majority in the House to impeach Biden, hold the debt ceiling hostage and have a strong chance of keeping their majority after 2024.

* I'm assuming that in Nevada, Democrats will as usual slightly outperform the polls.

* Republicans have been flooding the landscape with poor-quality, right-leaning polls to make it appear that they have the momentum. The only question is, will those polls accidentally turn out to be right.

 

 

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Predictions: 2018 Senate Races

Final Prediction 11/5:

Current Senate: 51 R and 49 D 
 
Current Prediction: 50 D and 50 R
 Democrats to pick up AZ and NV
Republicans to pickup ND

Overview update: (12/15/17) Democrat Doug Jones won the special election in Alabama for US Senate this week. It would be difficult to overstate the value of this victory for the Democratic party:
* Before the Alabama win, Democrats had virtually no chance of winning control of the Senate next year. Now I'd say they're about even-money.
* Not only has the Republican Senate majority been cut from two seats to one, the shock of losing in deep-red Alabama is having a chilling effect on Republican prospects for next year. We're likely to see more congressional incumbents retire, and likely to see Republicans continue to have recruiting struggles in Democratic Senate seats that were expected to be likely turnovers in 2018, such as Montana and North Dakota.

Overview: (11/25/16). The story of the 2018 Senate races was going to be that of historic gains for the Republican party. Democrats hold 25 of the seats up for election compared to only 8 for the GOP, and the party out of power always does well in the mid-term elections. Of course I expected Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump to become President. So now it's the Democrats who are the party out of power, and, quite possibly, Democratic voters will be more fired up than their Republican opponents in 2018. Of course it may not matter how energized Democrats are, given the increasing effectiveness of Republican voter suppression laws. This may be an election where few if any seats change hands. Retirements will be key.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. This post will be updated continuously until election day.

Likely to be competitive:

Arizona

Rating: Leans Democratic takeover

Republican: US Representative Martha McSally or former state Senator Kelli Ward or former Sheriff Joe Arpaio (incumbent Jeff Flake retiring)

Democrat: US Representative Krysten Sinema (likely)

Overview: (11/25/16) For years now, Democrats have found themselves tantalizingly close to winning statewide elections in Arizona, without actually winning any of them. Jeff Flake's approval rating is only 35% (he doesn't like Donald Trump), making him vulnerable to a challenge from the right. If Flake loses his primary to some right-wing yahoo, the door is open for a competitive race. If Flake is renominated, he's a pretty safe bet for reelection.

(8/12/17) Flake's approval ratings are not just poor, they seem impossibly bad for anyone not a convicted felon. Worse, there is major PAC money backing Flake's primary challenger, former state Senator Kelli Ward. Democrats will counter with popular Congresswoman Krysten Sinema. I like Sinema's chances.

(12/13/17) Flake is out. Republicans have a good candidate in Congresswoman McSally, but first she has to get past uber-crazy Kelli Ward. Among other things, Ward believes in the "chemtrails" conspiracy that condensation left in the sky by airliners are a secret government plot to emit harmful chemicals into the atmosphere. Polls show Democrat Krysten Sinema slightly ahead of both Ward and McSally and I like her chances.
(4/20/18) Sort-of good news for Republicans: former Sheriff and well-known criminal Joe Arpaio has entered the Republican primary. Although Republicans don't particularly want Arpaio grabbing headlines with his special brand of crazy racism, having him in the race makes it much more likely that the party's preferred candidate, Martha McSally, will win the nomination. Despite already burning through most of the money she's raised, McSally however trails Democrat Krysten Sinema in polls.

Florida

Rating: Leans Democratic hold 

Democrat: Bill Nelson (incumbent)

Republican: Governor Rick Scott (likely)

Overview: (11/25/16) Republican Governor Rick Scott is term-limited out of office after 2018, and, having nothing better to do, apparently he'd like to continue ruining the state of Florida by becoming a US Senator. If he runs, Scott would be the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP nomination. His approval ratings are however underwater, so for the time being I like Nelson to win another term.
(12/15/17) Scott may be getting cold feet about running next year after the shock Republican loss in Alabama. Since Scott is the presumptive nominee, if he doesn't run that means that Republicans will start out that much further behind in building momentum in this race.
(4/20/18) Yep, it's Rick Scott. While Scott will certainly make this a tough race, current polling suggests that if Nelson doesn't make any major mistakes, he'll be reelected.
(10/3/18) Scott showed a small lead in most late-summer polls, but his momentum had stalled. Nelson consistently leads in current polls, and Scott's getting no help from the top of the ticket, where Republican nominee Ron DeSantis is trailing Democrat Andrew Gillum.

Indiana

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Joe Donnelly (incumbent)

Republican: US Representative Luke Messer or US Representative Todd Rokita or former state Representative Mike Braun

Overview:  (11/25/16) How the heck did Democrat Joe Donnelly win a Senate seat in Indiana? Well, it seems his opponent, State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, suggested during the campaign that women impregnated by rapists must not have abortions, because their pregnancies are something, "God intended to happen."  Can Donnelly draw another opponent as repellent as Mourdock? I wouldn't count on it, and Indiana is a red state going redder.

(8/12/17) Both of the Indiana Congressmen running for the GOP nomination would be strong candidates against Donnelly, and he'll need every possible break to win this race.
(4/20/18) Current polling suggests a surprise on the Republican side: Mike Braun, a businessman who briefly served in the Indiana House leads both Messer and Rokita for the nomination. This same poll shows Democrat Donnelly ahead -quite comfortably in fact- against both Messer and Rokita, but it failed to poll a Donnelly-Braun matchup. In any case, I had Donnelly pegged as the most-endangered Democratic incumbent but as of today his chances of reelection look pretty good.
(10/3/18) This one will be close but I like Donnelly's chances; he has a small lead in the polls, and, the Libertarian candidate is showing some strength in the polls; usually the Libertarian take votes from the Republicans.

Michigan

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Debbie Stabenow (incumbent)

Republican: Businessman Sandy Pensler (likely)

Overview: Stabenow is running for a fourth term, and has easily defeated past Republican opponents. On the other hand, if Michigan can go for Trump just four years after giving President Obama a 10-point victory over Michigan boy Mitt Romney, anything is possible.
(4/20/18) This race is turning into a non-event. Stabenow has a big lead in the most recent poll against the likely Republican nominee, little-known businessman Sandy Pensler.

Minnesota (special) 

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Tina Smith (incumbent) (incumbent Al Franken resigning)

Republican:

Overview: (12/13/17): Goodbye, Al Franken. Republicans did very well in in Minnesota in 2016, but no matter how you slice it Democrats have the edge in retaining this seat in next year's special election.

Mississippi-Special

Rating: Leans Republican hold

Republican: Appointed imcumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith or State Senator Chris McDaniel (incumbent Thad Cochran retiring)

Democrat: Former Congressman Mike Espy
Overview (3/19/18): Another big headache for Republicans as Thad Cochran has decided to retire from the Senate 21 months before his term in office ends. There are no party primary elections for this race; on election day in November all candidates will appear on one ballot. If no candidate gets 50% of all the ballots cast (as is likely), there will be a runoff between the top two finishers. The Republican vote will probably be split down the middle between Tea Party darling Chris McDaniel and whomever is chosen by the state's Governor to be Senator for the rest of this year. McDaniel is loathed by the Republican establishment, so sparks are sure to fly. In a runoff, Democrats would prefer to have their top vote-getter face off against McDaniel rather than a less polarizing candidate, but it's hard to be very sanguine about the blue team's chances here. Our best bet would be if several Republicans ran and only two Democrats, then theoretically the two Democrats could face each other in the runoff.
(10/3/18): A recent poll shows McDaniel leading Hyde-Smith by 5 points. If McDaniel catches her and makes it to the runoff against Democrat Espy, the blue team has a chance. If it's an Espy v. Hyde-Smith ruoff, we'll lose.

Missouri

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Claire McCaskill (incumbent)

Republican: State Attorney General Josh Hawley

Overview: (11/25/16) Nobody thought Claire McCaskill had a chance of winning another term in the Senate in 2012. As expected, Mitt Romney beat President Obama by a large margin in Missouri. McCaskill however skillfully helped ensure that the Republican nomination would go to the most extreme candidate in the race, Congressmen Todd Akin. Akin then obliged McCaskill by making some truly birzarre comments on rape and pregnancy, and she beat him by 15% on election day. Well, that was then. McCaskill might get lucky again and face a truly terrible opponent, but I wouldn't count on it.
(4/20/18) Claire McCaskill is getting all the breaks in this race. Her opponent Josh Hawley is seen as running a very lackluster campaign. Worse for Republicans, Governor Eric Greitens has refused to resign despite multiple felony indictments. McCaskill has a tiny lead in the polls.

Montana

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Jon Tester (incumbent)

Republican: Sate Auditor Matt Ronsendale

Libertarian: Rick Breckenridge

Overview: (11/25/16) Tester ran a brilliant campaign in 2012, and won a race that Republicans were counting on. It didn't hurt that the Libertarian candidate ate some of the Republicans' lunch by taking 6.5% of the vote. Tester won't be easy to beat in 2018, but it wouldn't surprise me that much if he lost.
(10/3/18) This is a close race, but Tester has raised far more money and has a small lead in the polls.

Nebraska

Rating: Likely Republican hold

Republican: Deb Fischer (incumbent)

Democrat: Lincoln Councilwoman Jane Raybould (likely)

Overview: (11/25/16) In 2012, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning was expected to win this race, but State Senator Deb Fischer surprised most by winning the Republican nomination. She then proceeded to campaign so badly in her race against former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey that Republicans were forced to inject last-minute campaign funds into a race that should have seen Fischer able to sleepwalk to victory. More recently, she made the brilliant move of calling on Donald Trump to step down from the Presidential nomination after the release of the Billy Bush tape, only to endorse him for President 3 days later. To summarize, it wouldn't surprise me if the inept Fischer were to lose renomination to another Republican. But nothing short of a miracle would make a Democrat competitive in this race.

(12/13/17) Fischer's approval ratings stink. According to a recent poll, Jane Raybould is larger unknown to voters, however, "After being given Democrat Jane Raybould’s background and asked again who they would vote for," Raybould leads: 38% to 35%. That's enough for me to think that this will at least be a close race.

(10/3/18) Raybould has not mounted much of a campaign, Fischer will win.

Nevada

Rating: Leans Democratic pickup

Republican: Dean Heller (incumbent)

Democrat: Congresswoman Jacky Rosen

Overview: (11/25/16) Heller narrowly beat a scandal-tarred opponent in 2012. Nevada is trending blue, and if the Democrats nominate a good candidate, this will be a close race.

(8/12/17) Heller's approval ratings have hit rock-bottom, he's barely leading perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian for renomination in the GOP primary, and he's already trailing Democratic Congresswoman Jacky Rosen in general election polls. At this point I think Rosen will pickup this seat for the blue team.
(4/20/18) Rosen is ahead in the most recent poll.

New Jersey

Rating: Likley Democratic hold

Democrat: Bob Menendez (incumbent)

Republican: ?

Overview: (11/25/16) Menendez is facing federal corruption charges. Whether this actually opens the door for Republicans to win a Senate seat in New Jersey remains to be seen. It's hard to imagine voters turning out in a big way for New Jersey Republicans in 2018 given their loathing of Govenor Chris Christie, and the recent convictions in the Bridgegate scandal.
(4/20/18) The feds have dropped the charges against Menendez. He'll win this race.

New Mexico

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Martin Heinrich (incumbent)

Republican: ?

Overview: Martin Heinrich has decent approval ratings. He also kind of looks like a model. New Mexico is trending blue, and I don't think Democrats have much too much to worry about here.

North Dakota

Rating: Leans Republican Pickup

Democrat: Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent)

Republican: Congressman Kevin Cramer

Overview: (11/25/16) Time was when North Dakota elected liberal Democrats to Congress even as it voted strongly for Republicans at the Presidential level. It looked like those days were over in 2012, however, Heidi Heitkamp miraculously beat her Republican opponent by 3,000 votes even as Mitt Romney beat President Obama by 64,000 votes in North Dakota. This will be a close race, but I think Heitkamp has the popularity to win another term.
(4/20/18) Republicans think they had a winner in the form of the state's only US House member, Kevin Cramer. Cramer, is facing ethics problems as well as the fallout from some nasty public remarks, and I'm not so sure how strong a candidate he is given that he's suggested he'd make Heitkamp's vote against the Trump tax cut the focus of his campaign. The first poll since Cramer jumped in shows Heitkamp with a small lead.
(10/3/18) Unless the polls are wrong, Heitkamp is going to lose. She's raising a lot more money than Cramer, but it seems North Dakota has moved far enough to the right to make Heitkamp the one vulnerable Democrat who can't be helped by the blue wave.

Ohio

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Sherrod Brown (incumbent)

Republican: Congressman Jim Renacc

Overview: (11/25/16) In 2012, Republicans had high hopes that Mitt Romney would carry Ohio, and that "rising star" Republican state Treasurer Scott Mandel would defeat incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown. Neither happened, however, Donald Trump's big win in Ohio in 2016 should give Democrats pause. Brown may be a bit too liberal for increasingly conservative Ohio. But his approval ratings are pretty good, and he has a strong chance to win another term.

(8/12/17) Five years after Brown beat Mandel, Mandel is still Secretary of State in Ohio, and is seeking a rematch. Frustratingly, he's also leading Brown in the polls. President Trump's approval rating in Ohio isn't good, but it's also not bad enough to suggest that Brown should automatically get a boost in this race. This will be a closely fought contest.
(4/20/18) So much for the big Brown-Mandel rematch, Mandel has dropped out. Likely GOP nominee Congressman Jim Renacci trails substantially in a recent poll. I like Brown's chances to win another term.
(10/3/18) Brown is cruising to victory.

Pennsylvania

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent)

Republican: Congressman Lou Barletta

Overview: (11/25/16) Bob Casey has good approval ratings and I like his chances to win another term.
(10/3/18) Easy win for incumbent Casey.

Tennessee

Rating: Leans Democratic takeover

Republican: US Representative Marsha Blackburn (likely) (incumbent Bob Corker retiring). 

Democrat: Former Governor Phil Bredesen

Overview: (12/13/17) Corker is out. This may be the most interest content to watch in 2018. Democrats are rejoicing that former Governor Phil Bredesen, who won nearly 70% of the vote in his 2006 race, has entered this contest. His opponent will likely be the ultra-conservative Marsha Blackburn. In almost any other state, I'd give Bredesen the edge (the first poll of this race shows him with a 2-point lead over Blackburn), but there are a lot of factors that will weigh him down. One, he was Governor during the Great Recession, two, he'll be 74 years old and his last race was a long time ago, three, this is Tennessee where President Trump still holds an approval rating around 50%.
(4/20/18) Recent polling shows Bredesen ahead in this race, and Senator Corker has said pretty nice things about him. If Bredesen can maintain momentum, I see no reason why he can't win.

Texas

Rating: Leans Republican hold

Republican: Ted Cruz (incumbent)

Democrat: US Representative Beto O'Rourke (likely)

Overview: (8/12/17) Hard to believe, but a current poll shows President Trump's approval rating underwater in Texas, and Ted Cruz tied with Congressman Beto O'Rourke in this race. Texas is o-so-slowly trending blue, and some day a Democrat will win a statewide election. Probably not this one, but some day.
(4/20/18) O'Rouke is raising a ton of money, and staying very close to Cruz in the polls. I'm not conceding this race to Cruz yet.

Virginia

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Tim Kaine (incumbent)

Republican: County Board of Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart

Overview: (11/25/16) Even with popular former Governor and Senator Tim Kaine on the Clinton ticket, she barely carried Virginia. Oh well, moving on. While I expect Republicans to mount a serious challenge here, Kaine is a good bet to win another term.
(10/3/18) Forget Republicans mounting a serious challenge, their nominee is white supremacist Corey Stewart.

West Virginia

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Joe Manchin (incumbent)

Republican: State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey

Overview: Joe Manchin is easily the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. Will that be enough to win another term in very conservative West Virginia? His approval ratings suggest it will.
(10/3/18) Somehow, Manchin has a comfortable lead in the polls. It doesn't hurt that the Libertarian and Constitution parties are both in the mix, they tend to take votes from the Republicans.

Wisconsin

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)

Republican: State Senator Leah Vukmir

Overview: (11/25/16) I don't know what to say about Wisconsin any more. Barrack Obama carried it easily, now it goes for Trump. Republican Ron Johnson is probably the worst member of the Senate, he has terrible approval ratings, and yet he defeats Democrat Russ Feingold. Republican Governor Scott Walker is a total disaster for the state, yet he easily wins reelection. On paper, liberal Democrat Tammy Baldwin is a good bet for reelection. In reality, given what's happened in Wisconsin in recent elections, who knows?
(4/20/18) Baldwin is polling very well against likely GOP nominee Kevin Nicholson and will probably cruise to victory.
(10/3/18) Baldwin cruising to victory. Let's hope the lack of interest in this race among Republicans will cause them to stay home and not vote for incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott.

Unlikely to be competitive:

California: Dianne Feinstein (D) may not run for reelection (she'll be 85), but California is likely to stay blue.

Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D). Republicans have had high hopes for Connecticut in recent elections; those hopes have gone nowhere.

Delaware: Tom Carper (D) has sky-high approval ratings and is in no danger.

Hawai'i: Mazie Hirono (D). Even in Republican-leaning years, the GOP has gotten nowhere in Hawai'i congressional races.

Maine: Angus King (I-Democratic caucus). King is quite popular, and Maine seems to like incumbents. 

Massachusetts (D). The only way Elizabeth Warren is not still a U.S. Senator years from now is if she runs for higher office.

Maryland: Ben Cardin (D). Maryland is too blue for Republicans to make a go of it here.

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D). Strong approval ratings protect Klobuchar from vulnerability.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R). As I noted in a post in 2008, here's how voting works in Mississippi in statewide races: white people vote Republican, black people vote Democratic. The population demographics needed for a serious challenge to Wicker just aren't there.

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Extremely unlikely any Republican will win a statewide race in New York.

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Republicans have made serious inroads in a lot of what were considered blue states in the past few years. But not in Rhode Island.

Utah: Orrin Hatch (R-retiring). (4/20/18) Normally I put all open seat races in the "competitive" list, but this time I won't bother. Mitt Romney will win this race. He will be an improvement over Orrin Hatch.

Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I, member of the Democratic caucus). There is no more popular Senator among his constituents than Bernie.

Washington: Maria Cantwell (D). Republicans have become far less competitive in statewide races in Washington is the past couple of decades, and with Trump in office, the GOP nominee for this seat doesn't have a prayer.

Wyoming: John Barrasso (R). Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

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