Predictions: 2018 Gubernatorial elections

Final Prediction, 11/4:

Democrats to pickup: Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Republicans: No pickups from Democrats, but Alaska will flip from independent Republican to regular Republican.
* Georgia, currently Republican, will go to a runoff.

In 2018, thirty-six states will hold an election for chief executive. Only nine of these offices are held by Democratic incumbents, as the blue team got clobbered in 2014. The Democrats would especially like to grab the top office in swing states like Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin that are currently dominated by Republicans. Why? Because winning in 2018 means having more say in the decennial redistricting of congressional and state legislative seats in 2021. You see the only reason that Republicans control the US House is because they were able to gerrymander so many states in the last congressional redistricting in 2011. Michigan, for example, elected 9 Republicans and only 5 Democrats to the House in 2012 despite the fact that President Obama beat Mitt Romney there by almost 10%.

The races are categorized as (1.) those that are competitive or at risk of being won by the party out of power (this includes all open-seat races), and (2.) those unlikely to become competitive. This post will be updated continuously until election day.

Competitive/at-risk races:

Alaska
Rating: Likely Republican pickup
Independent: Bill Walker (incumbent)
Republican: Former state Senator Mike Dunleavy (likely)
Democrat: Former Senator Mark Begich
Overview: (12/3/17) In 2014's weirdest election, Republican Bill Walker declared an independent candidacy, formed a "unity" ticket with Democrat Byron Mallot, and narrowly defeated the Republican nominee (with some help from the Constitution and Libertarian candidates, who ate some of the Republicans' lunch). The Walker/Mallot ticket is running again in 2018, but it faces an uphill battle as Walker is unpopular.
(7/17/18) In a surprise move, former Democratic Senator Mark Begich had jumped in. This makes is a tight 3-way race between the independent incumbent and the two major party candidates; long story short it looks like Republican Dunleavy has the best chance of winning.
(8/30/18) Barring some major change in this race, Dunleavy will win.

Arizona
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Doug Ducey (incumbent)
Democrat: Professor David Garcia (likely)
Overview: (12/3/17) Incumbent Doug Ducey is not popular, but top-tier Democrats have so far shown more interest in Arizona's open Senate race.
(7/17/18) A recent poll shows virtually unknown Arizona State Professor David Garcia with a 1-point lead over Doug Ducey. A upset this big is unlikely however; Ducey remains the favorite.
(10/14/18) Ducey is running a strong campaign, Garcia is not.

California
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom (incumbent Jerry Brown term-limited)
Republican: ?
Overview: This contest is listed as competitive only because it's an open-seat race. The Brown administration has been very successful and Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom comes into this election with a lot of wind at his back. Barring a political earthquake, he'll win.

Colorado
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Jared Polis (incumbent John Hickenlooper term-limited)
Republican: State Tresurer Walker Stapleton
Overview: (12/3/17) Everybody wants to be Governor of Colorado: The Democratic primary already has six announced candidates, and the Republicans have seven. Given that the Democrats managed to win this office in the nightmare year of 2014, they have the inside track in 2018 no matter who the candidates are.
(7/17/18) Both parties have likely nominees who are strong candidates for the general election. In what will be a Democratic year, Polis has the edge.
(10/14/18) Polis is comfortably ahead in the polls.

Connecticut
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Former Greenwich Selectman Ned Lamont (likely) (incumbent Dan Malloy term-limited)
Republican: Businessman Bob Stefanowski
Overview: (12/3/17) Dan Malloy has the distinction of being America's least-popular Governor. In a different year, that might be enough to flip this office to Republicans, but the Connecticut GOP has been on life support for a long time.
(7/17/18) Ned Lamont is a long-time popular figure in the Connecticut Democratic party and he has the edge over whomever gets the Republican nomination.
(10/14/18) Rumors of the Republican party's revival in Connecticut have been greatly exaggerated. Lamont is comfortably ahead.

Florida
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Congressman Ron DeSantis (incumbent Rick Scott term-limited)
Democrat: Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum
Overview: (12/3/17) The last two gubernatorial elections in Florida were very close, and I expect this one to be no different.
(7/17/18) Both parties have a lot of candidates; Gwen Graham probably has the edge in winning the Democratic nomination and she has good poll numbers versus the various Republicans.
(8/30/18) Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum came out of pretty much nowhere to win the Democratic nomination. Now the blue team will try to elect a little-known candidate as the state's first black Governor. While that seems like an uphill climb to me, Gillum leads in the first new poll since the primary, and Trump-loving Ron DeSantis has opened the general election season with a racial slur against Gillum. This one will be close.

Georgia
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Lt. Governor Casey Cagle (likely) (incumbent Nathan Deal term-limited)
Democrat: Former state Representative Stacey Abrams
Overview: (12/3/17) Republican Casey Cagle is a known quantity, and as no prominent Democrats appear to be looking at this open-seat race, this one is probably over before it begins.
(7/17/18) Cagle is working hard to blow this one. He took almost 40% of the vote in the Republican primary against only 25% for Secretary of State Brian Kemp, but polls now show the two tied in the runoff election, and things are quite bitter between them - Cagle recently said that Kemp has, "evil in his heart." Polling for the general election shows a very close race, but a Democratic win here would be a shocker.

Illinois
Rating: Likely Democratic pickup
Republican: Bruce Rauner (incumbent)
Democrat: Businessman J.B. Pritzker
Overview: (12/3/17) Unlike several other Republican Governors who managed to win election in blue states in 2014, Bruce Rauner has made no effort to create compromise or govern from the center. His term in office has been a total disaster, and polls show him losing to "generic Democrat" by as much as 15 points. Good riddance.
(7/17/18) Pritzker has a huge lead in the polls and unlimited resources. Game over.

Iowa
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Kim Reynolds (appointed incumbent)
Democrat: Business Fred Hubbell
Overview: (4/20/18) So, the state where I grew up and went to school was all-in for Trump in 2016. Iowa, what happened? Is there any hope? Well, Trump's approval rating is under water by 11% here, that's something I guess. Apparently Kim Reynolds' lead over likely nominee Fred Hubbell is fairly slim. The real question is, how can Iowans possibly be supporting her for election in 2018? An Iowa journalist just won the Pulitzer Prize for his work on Reynolds' disastrous Medicaid privatization. The state is dead-last in GDP growth under all-Republican control. C'mon Iowa, don't sink beneath my already incredibly-low expectations.
(10/14/18) Hubbell leads in what little polling we've seen. Note that the Libertarian candidate is showing substantial support - that's not good for the Republicans.

Kansas
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Secretary of State Kris Kobach (appointed incumbent) (incumbent Sam Brownback resigned)
Democrat: State Senator Laura Kelly
Independent: Businessman Greg Orman
Overview: (12/3/17) It would be difficult to overstate just what a complete wreck Governor Sam Brownback has made of Kansas. Now Brownback is apparently resigning for some phony-baloney job in the Trump administration, meaning Lt. Governor Jeff Coyler will run as an incumbent in 2018. And since it's apparently impossible for the Republicans to lose in Kansas, there you go.
(7/17/18) With Greg Orman mounting a strong independent candidacy, this race should be sort of interesting, but in the end the Republicans will win, just as they always do in Kansas.
(10/14/18) Much to my surprise, insane, disgraced Secretary of State Kris Kobach beat incumbent Governor Coyler by 350 votes (!) in the GOP primary. Polls show this race as a dead head between Kobach and Democrat Laura Kelly, with two independent candidates confusing the situation. Not clear who has momentum; this is a true toss up.

Maine
Rating: Likely Democratic pickup
Republican: Businessman Shawn Moody (incumbent Paul LePage)
Democrat: Attorney General Janet Mills
Overview: (12/3/17) Republican Paul LePage is a walking garbage can of racist craziness. The only reason why he was twice able to win election was due to two ill-advised independent candidacies by attorney Eliot Cutler that split the Democratic vote. While this will probably be a close race, the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track.
(7/17/18) Mills is a huge favorite over the largely unknown Shawn Moody.

Maryland
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Larry Hogan (incumbent)
Democrat: NAACP CEO Ben Jealous
Overview: (12/3/17) One month before the 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election, Democratic nominee Anthony Brown lead Republican Larry Hogan by 17 points in the CBS/NY Times poll. Hogan won any way. Hogan's approval ratings are sky-high. He's one of several Republican Governors in eastern blue states who are curiously popular, and he's a good bet for reelection.
(7/17/18) Ben Jealous pretty much came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nomination; he will now have the privilege of losing to Larry Hogan by 12 points or so.

Massachusetts
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Businessman Charlie Baker (incumbent)
Democrat: Businessman Jay Gonzalez
Overview: Massachusetts has a long tradition of electing moderate Republican Governors to create a balance of power with the Democrats who control everything else. Baker is very popular, and should cruise to reelection.

Michigan
Rating: Leans Democratic Pickup
Republican: Attorney General Bill Schuette (incumbent Rick Snyder term-limited)
Democrat: Former state Senator Gretchen Whitmer
Overview: (12/3/17) The Republicans have a top-tier recruit in Attorney General Bill Schuette, but Schuette comes with the baggage of being part of the scandal-plagued and deeply unpopular Snider administration. Democrats desperately want to win this one, and I like their chances.
(10/14/18) Whitmer's running a great campaign, Schuette's running a terrible one. Whitmer comfortably ahead in the polls.

Minnesota
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Tim Walz (incumbent Mark Dayton retiring)
Republican: County Commissioner Jeff Johnson
Overview: (12/3/17) Republicans captured the Minnesota House and Senate in 2016, and Trump narrowly missed pulling off a shock victory there as well. Democrats wants to reverse the situation before the state goes red like Iowa and Wisconsin. Several top-tier Democrats have announced for this race, whereas the Republican candidates are more second-tier. There's a good chance the blue team can win this race and recapture both houses of the legislature.
(7/17/18) Republicans managed to coax former Governor Tim Pawlenty out of retirement, he will probably make it a close race but still lose to Swanson.
(10/14/18) Polls showed Pawlenty easily winning the GOP primary, but Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson beat him by a big margin. Polls suggest the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor party making a big comeback this year from the drubbing it took in 2016.

Nevada
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Attorney General Adam Laxalt (incumbent Brian Sandoval term-limited)
Democrat: Country Commissioner Steve Sisolak
Overview: (12/3/17) Laxalt is a great recruit for the GOP, and I think this race will be his to lose. Trump is not popular in Nevada, but he isn't showing the kind of unpopularity there that would suggest a huge wave for Democrats.
(10/14/18) Polls show a dead heat; but the Libertarian candidate is polling in the high single-digits and I think Sisolak has a (slight) edge here.

New Hampshire
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Chris Sununu (incumbent)
Democrat: Former state Senator Molly Kelly (likely)
Overview: (12/3/17) There's no polling for this race, but it will likely turn on the size of the Democratic wave: a small wave means Sununu gets another term, a big one sweeps him out.
(10/14/18) Democrats not making much of an effort here. Sununu will win.

New Mexico
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Congressman Steve Pearce (incumbent Susana Martinez term-limited)
Democrat: Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham
Overview: (12/3/17) Outgoing Governor Martinez is deeply unpopular, and although both parties should have top-tier nominees, the prevailing winds favor a Democratic pickup in New Mexico.
(7/17/18) Grisham has a comfortable lead in the polls; this one's probably over.

Ohio
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: State Attorney General Mike DeWine (likely) (incumbent John Kasich term-limited)
Democrat: Former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray
Overview: (7/17/18) Mike DeWine is a political heavyweight and I suspect nothing less than a Democratic tidal wave can keep the Republicans from winning this race. Cordray is a love--or-hate-him candidate as the former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; polls currently show a toss up.

Oklahoma
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Businessman Kevin Stitt (incumbent Mary Fallin term-limited)
Democrat: State Attorney General Drew Edmondson
Overview: (8/30/18) Political nobody Kevin Stitt is the Republican nominee to replace unpopular Governor Mary Fallin. Stitt somewhat surprisingly beat both the Lt. Governor and the former Mayor of Oklahoma City for the nomination; he's probably weaker as a candidate in the general election than either of the guys he beat. Stitt will face the only real heavyweight for the Democratic party in the state, four-term Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Polling suggests a close race.
(10/14/18) The polls show a low ceiling for Edmondson; they're just aren't enough Democrats in Oklahoma. Unless his polling gets better I'm calling this one for the GOP.

Oregon
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Kate Brown (incumbent)
Republican: State Representative Knute Buehler
Overview: (12/3/17) Democrat Kate Brown's polling numbers could be better, but so far no big-name Republican has declared for this race, and as this is deep-blue Oregon I expect Brown to be reelected.
(10/14/18) The polls show a pretty close race but I'm confident Brown will win.

Pennsylvania
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Tom Wolf (incumbent)
Republican: State Senator Scott Wagner
Overview: (12/3/17) One of the only bright spots on election night 2014 was Tom Wolf's narrow pickup of Pennsylvania for the blue team. PA is one of the most gerrymandered states at both the federal and state level, and Democrats very much want to be holding on to this office the next time legislative districts are drawn in 2021. Wolf's approval ratings aren't great, but his chances for reelection are solid.
(7/17/18) Wolf is crushing Wagner in the polls; this one's probably over.
(10/14/18): Republican Wagner to Governor Wolf: "I'm going to stomp all over your face with golf spikes." That's the political quote of the election.

South Dakota
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Congresswoman Kristi Noem (incumbent Dennis Dugaard term-limited)
Democrat: State Senator Billie Sutton
Overview: (10/14/18) Democratic Billie Sutton keeps releasing internal polls showing him slightly ahead of Republican Kristi Noem. Most of the pundits apparently find Sutton's polls unconvincing, although the Cook Political Report has moved this race to "tossup." There's a Libertarian in the mix who should take a few votes from Noem, but I'll need to see more evidence that this race is as close as Sutton claims before I'll believe Democrats have a chance here.

Wisconsin
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Scott Walker (incumbent)
Democrat: State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers?
Overview: (12/3/17) It's chilling to think of Republican Scott Walker actually being elected to a third term in what's expected to be a big year for Democrats, yet the big-name pundits are currently calling this race "lean" or "likely" Republican. Walker currently trails a generic Democratic in polls, and given that his two terms in office have been a total disaster for Wisconsin's economy, its workers, its environment for civil rights and pretty much everything else, you'd think he wouldn't have a prayer of winning another election. Yet when I look at the group of second-tier names seeking the Democratic nomination, I can see Walker winning another term.
(7/17/18) The only recent poll of this race shows Walker leading the most likely Democratic nominee Tony Evers by 4. Evers is a good candidate, still, he'll need every break to beat Walker.

Races unlikely to become competitive:
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Nebraska, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Wyoming have incumbent Republican Governors who are likely to win reelection in 2018.

Hawai'i, New York, and Rhode Island have incumbent Democratic Governors who are likely to win reelection in 2018.

Tweet