All Competitive Races updated 4/19/26
Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D
Overview, 5/18/25: In 2005, Republicans controlled the Senate 56 to 44. Then Democrats netted 8 seats in 2006 and another 8 in 2008 for an incredible 60 to 40 majority. Alas, nothing like that is going to happen in the next four years. Even if the blue team does well, there are very few Republican Senate seats that will see competitive races. The goal of course is to net at least 3 seats in the next two elections so as to have a 50 to 50 majority with the vice presidential tie breaker in 2029, assuming the Democratic nominee wins the Presidency.
Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. This post will be updated continuously through election day.
Competitive and open seat races:
Alabama
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Congressman Barry Moore (likely) (Tommy Tuberville incumbent retiring)
Democrat: Businessman Kyle Sweetser (likely)
Overview (5/18/25): Tommy Tuberville isn't just the stupidest Senator, he's possibly the stupidest person alive.
This race will not be competitive unless Republicans nominate pedophile Roy Moore again.
(4/19/26): Someday a Democratic will win something in Alabama. But not in 2026.
Alaska
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Dan Sullivan incumbent
Democrat: Former congresswoman Mary Peltola
Overview (5/18/25): Alaska's ranked-choice voting system narrowly survived a challenge in the 2024 election.
In theory, ranked-choice give Democrats a shot in any statewide race in
Alaska in the same manner as Democrat Mary Peltola scored an unlikely
win there in 2022. If only one Democrat enters the race, and multiple
Republicans do, some Republican voters are likely to vote for the
Democrat rather than another Republican as their "second choice". But
more likely is an easy win for Sullivan in this race.
(4/19/26): Polls suggest Peltola is winning this race. I like her chances.
Florida 2026 Special
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Ashley Moody (appointed incumbent)
Democrat: Former US National Security Council official Alex Vindman
Overview (5/18/25): Incumbent Marco Rubio left this seat to join the Trump cabinet and Ashley Moody was appointed for the last two years of Rubio's term. She is running in 2028 for a full term. The chances of a Democrat winning in Florida any time soon are negligible.
(4/19/26): Polls suggest this race is within the margin of error. Of course that always seems to be the case in Florida, then the Democrat gets crushed. This could be the sleeper race of the year.
Georgia
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Jon Ossoff (incumbent)
Republican: Congressman Buddy Carter?
Libertarian: ?
Overview (5/18/25): Georgia is a reddish-purple state, but Ossoff has gotten lucky in that Republican Governor Brian Kemp has declined to run in this race.
(4/19/26): Ossoff is looking good while several Republicans tear each other to pieces in the GOP primary.
Illinois
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton (incumbent Dick Durbin retiring)
Republican: Former Republican state Party Chairman Don Tracy
Overview (5/18/25): The Republicans looking at this race are all minor-leaguers. I'm not worried about this one.
(4/19/26): Stratton is a lock.
Iowa
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (incumbent Republican Joni Ernst retiring)
Democrat: State Representative Zach Wahls (likely)
Overview (5/18/25): Republican Joni Ernst incumbent. I grew up in Iowa. It's unrecognizable to me now. No matter how disastrous Republicans policies are for the state,
the GOP just keeps winning. There actually is some hope for the
gubernatorial race in Iowa in 2026. But Iowans love them some Ernst for
some reason.
(4/19/26): Ernst is out thank God. On the one hand, the polls show Republican Hinson with a slight edge. On the other hand, red-state Iowa seems somewhat tired of its incompetent Republican leadership. Over in the Iowa gubernatorial race, state Auditor and Democrat Rob Sands is polling a considerable lead over Republican Congressman Randy Feenstra. If Sands wins that race by 8 points, there might be enough coattails to carry Zach Wahls to victory in this Senate race.
Kentucky
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Congressman Andy Barr (incumbent Mitch McConnell retiring)
Democrat: Charles Booker (likely)
Overview (5/18/25): Popular Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is not running in this race, so there's about a 99% chance the Republican nominee will win.
(4/19/26): Andy Barr has the charisma of pond scum. Democrats should be running a competitive race here, but it ain't gonna happen.
Maine
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Susan Collins incumbent
Democrat: Graham Platner (likely)
Overview (5/18/25): In one of the most frustrating races of all time, Democrats were very confident of beating Susan Collins in 2020. Polls showed Democratic nominee ahead by about 5%; she lost by 8.6%. This race will attract a lot of attention and money, but Collins is likely unbeatable.
(4/19/26): After getting off to a slow start, it looks like Democrat Graham Platner is going to defeat Governor Janet Mills in the primary. Polls show Platner leading incumbent Susan Collins comfortably. Of course we've been burned by that before. I'll probably end up predicting a Platner win then not being surprised when Collins holds on. Again.
Michigan
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Mallory McMorrow? (incumbent Gary Peters retiring)
Republican: Congressman Mike Rogers
Overview (5/18/25): Democrats managed to elect Elaine Slotkin to the open Senate seat here despite Trump's narrow win in 2024. The blue team has the edge in this race, but a win is far from guaranteed.
(4/19/26): Polls show the race for the Democratic nomination to be very close. Same goes for the general election. But it's hard to be believe the Republicans could flip this seat this year.
Minnesota
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Angie Craig (likely) (incumbent Tina Smith retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview (5/18/25): I'm encouraged by the fact that the Democrats will probably have a top-tier candidate in this race while the Republicans will not.
(4/19/26): Thanks to the ICE invasion of Minnesota this year, the Republican party is toxic in that state.
New Hampshire
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Chris Pappas (likely) (incumbent Jean Shaheen retiring)
Republican: Former Senator John Sununu?
Overview (5/18/25): Yet another Democratic retirement. Sigh. OK, well, Chris Pappas has the edge here over the second and third-tier Republicans looking at this race.
(4/19/26): Former Senator Sununu coming out of retirement to try to win back his old seat is a bit of a curve ball for Democrats. But I like Pappas' chances.
North Carolina
Rating: Likely Democratic takeover
Republican: Michael Watley (incumbent Thom Tillis retiring)
Democrat: Former Governor Roy Cooper (likely)
Overview: Democrats saw crushing disappointments in North Carolina in 2020, including losing a Senate race that every poll said they would win. The blue team starts the 2026 election cycle with some hope here, as Democrat Josh Stein just won the gubernatorial election by 15 points. Any hope of winning back the Senate goes through North Carolina.
(7/2/25): Tillis is out. If the Democrats have a good nominee, and the Republicans anything less than a near-perfect nominee, this race will lean blue.
(8/14/25): Cooper is in. I like his chances.
(4/19/26): This race will not be close.
Ohio:
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Jon Husted (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Senator Sherrod Brown
Overview (5/18/25): Republican Jon Husted was appointed to this seat. Appointed incumbents don't have a particularly good track record when it comes to winning a full term in the next election. Sherrod Brown had a kind of magic, winning three races in red-state Ohio before losing by 3 last year as Trump carried the state by 11 points. It will take a blue wave and then some for Brown to complete a come back.
(4/19/26): Nominating MAGA lunatic Vivek Ramaswamy for Governor will probably turn out to be a bad move for Ohio Republicans. I think Democrat Amy Acton is going to win that race. That means Democrats also have a good chance in this Senate race. The polls are close, but Brown is running a great campaign while Husted is being dragged down by a bribery scandal.
Oklahoma
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Markwayne Mullin retired)
Democrat: ?
Overview (5/18/25): Senator Markwayne Mullin's biggest accomplishment is trying to start a fistfight with the President of the Teamsters in a congressional hearing. Great job, Oklahoma.
(4/19/26): Mullin has quit the Senate to run DHS. Some other right-wing nut will win this race; I'm not going to bother writing any more about it.
Texas
Rating: Toss up
Republican: John Cornyn (incumbent) or state Attorney General Ken Paxton
Democrat: ?
Overview: Democrats will tell you they are playing the long game in Texas. A very, very long game. Population demographics keep changing in ways which would seem to favor Democrats, and Beto O'Rourke keeping registering new voters, yet the blue team just keeps getting stomped. And frankly, Democrats are getting tired of trying to get excited about statewide races in Texas (and Florida) only to lose every time. I would not even be writing about this race except for the fact that it looks like relatively-sane incumbent John Cornyn is going to lose a primary challenge to criminal nut-job Ken Paxton. In theory, this means Democrats have a chance. But come on, it's Texas.
(4/19/26): "Republicans are speeding toward doomsday scenario in Texas". That's the headline on Dailykos, and I happen to agree.
1. Republicans Cornyn and Paxton are locked in a bitter runoff.
2. Neither is raising a lot of money, and what they are raising they have to spend fighting each other.
3. Paxton seems to be the favorite to win the runoff, and "Most concerning of all is that, if Paxton were the nominee, a whopping
24% of Cornyn voters said they would be either very or somewhat likely
to vote for Democratic candidate James Talarico."
Races unlikely to become competitive:
Arkansas: Republican Tom Cotton incumbent. An age may unfold ere there is another competitive statewide race here.
Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper incumbent. Colorado is surrounded by seven very red states, but I expect no trouble in this race.
Delaware: Democrat Chris Coons incumbent. At a time when transgender people are hated in America, it was nice to see Delware elect Sarah McBride to Congress. This seat is safely blue.
Idaho: Republican Jim Risch incumbent. I've been to Idaho, it's beautiful. Let's quit while we're ahead.
Kansas: Republican Roger Marshall incumbent. Quiz question: Who was George McGill? Answer: Mr. McGill was the last Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas. That was in..get ready...1932!
Louisiana: Republican Bill Cassidy incumbent. Elections in Louisiana used to be interesting affairs with colorful candidates. Not any more.
Massachusetts: Ed Markey incumbent. Nothing to see here.
Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith incumbent. Studies often show that Mississippi is America's worst state to live in. So keep reelecting all its incumbents, right?
Montana: Republican Steve Daines incumbent. (5/18/25): Montana used to be a somewhat purple state. Not any more. 4/19/26: Five minutes before the filing deadline, Steve Daines dropped out and former US Attorney Kurt Alme jumped in. Whatever. Alme will win. While the Democratic party has shown signs of life in many red states this year, in Montana it has not.
Nebraska: Republican Pete Ricketts. In a state that just passed a constitutional amendment severely limiting abortion, I'm not sanguine about the Democratic party's chances, or about an independent candidacy threatening Ricketts.
New Jersey: Cory Booker incumbent. Trump got 46% in New Jersey, good grief. Nevertheless, I don't think Booker is in any trouble.
New Mexico: Ben Ray Luján incumbent. The New Mexico Republican party is pretty weak stuff. They didn't mount much of an offense in the 2024 Senate race there even though Trump made the race fairly close.
Oregon: Jeff Merkley incumbent. Merkley is probably running and thus will win another term.
Rhode Island: Jack Reed incumbent. Reed is running and will win another term.
South Carolina: Republican Lindsey Graham incumbent. Graham's approval rating in South Carolina hovers around 30%. You'd think that would make him vulnerable. Well, this state is not known for its primary challenges even to the most unpopular politicians. And I can't remember the last time the Democrats fielded a competitive candidate in any statewide race here.
South Dakota: Republican Mike Rounds incumbent. The Dakotas just keep moving to the right.
Tennessee: Republican Bill Hagerty incumbent. Outlook: The Democratic party doesn't even bother to try to field serious candidates in statewide races any more. They might as well go with the strategy of letting Hagerty run unopposed, hoping that reduced Republican turnout will help Democrats in other races.
Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner incumbent. Virginia's not all that blue, but I anticipate no trouble here. Trump trying to hurt Virginia's large federal worker population isn't doing the GOP any favors.
West Virginia: Republican Shelley Moore Capito incumbent. The Republican will win another term with about 70% of the vote.
Wyoming: Republican Cynthia Lummis incumbent. Republicans control the Wyoming state Senate 29 to 2 and state House 56 to 6. So yeah.
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