2026 Senate Race Predictions

Most recent updates: 8/24/26: AL, AK, FL, GA, IA, KS, ME, MI, NE, SC, TX
 
Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D

Overview, 5/18/25: In 2005, Republicans controlled the Senate 56 to 44. Then Democrats netted 8 seats in 2006 and another 8 in 2008 for an incredible 60 to 40 majority. Alas, nothing like that is going to happen in the next four years. Even if the blue team does well, there are very few Republican Senate seats that will see competitive races. The goal of course is to net at least 3 seats in the next two elections so as to have a 50 to 50 majority with the vice presidential tie breaker in 2029, assuming the Democratic nominee wins the Presidency.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. This post will be updated continuously through election day.

Competitive and open seat races:

Alabama
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Congressman Barry Moore (Tommy Tuberville incumbent retiring)
Democrat: Perennial candidate Everett Wess
Overview (5/18/25): Tommy Tuberville isn't just the stupidest Senator, he's possibly the stupidest person alive. This race will not be competitive unless Republicans nominate pedophile Roy Moore again.
(4/19/26): Someday a Democratic will win something in Alabama. But not in 2026.
(8/24/26) Democrats have declined to even try. Someday...

Alaska
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Dan Sullivan incumbent
Democrat: Former congresswoman Mary Peltola
Overview (5/18/25): Alaska's ranked-choice voting system narrowly survived a challenge in the 2024 election. In theory, ranked-choice give Democrats a shot in any statewide race in Alaska in the same manner as Democrat Mary Peltola scored an unlikely win there in 2022. If only one Democrat enters the race, and multiple Republicans do, some Republican voters are likely to vote for the Democrat rather than another Republican as their "second choice". But more likely is an easy win for Sullivan in this race.
(4/19/26): Polls suggest Peltola is winning this race. I like her chances.
(8/24/26): Jungle primary results: Peltola 48.1%, Sullivan 42.7%. The two of them and the 3rd and 4th place candidates move on to the November ballot. I am very happy with the primary results - all indications are Peltola will win with room to spare.

Florida 2026 Special
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Ashley Moody (appointed incumbent)
Democrat: State Representative Angie Nixon Former
Overview (5/18/25): Incumbent Marco Rubio left this seat to join the Trump cabinet and Ashley Moody was appointed for the last two years of Rubio's term. She is running in 2028 for a full term. The chances of a Democrat winning in Florida any time soon are negligible.
(4/19/26): Polls suggest this race is within the margin of error. Of course that always seems to be the case in Florida, then the Democrat gets crushed. This could be the sleeper race of the year.
(8/24/26) Presumptive democratic nominee Alex Vindman raised $16 million and lost the primary to lefty candidate Angie Nixon, a virtual unknown who raised almost no money at all. Well, that just goes to show that winning statewide in Florida has become a fool's errand for Democrats. We might as well nominate the democratic socialist candidate. As least she'll get some people excited before she goes on to lose by double-digits.

Georgia
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jon Ossoff (incumbent)
Republican: Congressman Mike Collins
Overview (5/18/25): Georgia is a reddish-purple state, but Ossoff has gotten lucky in that Republican Governor Brian Kemp has declined to run in this race.
(4/19/26): Ossoff is looking good while several Republicans tear each other to pieces in the GOP primary.
(8/24/26): Ossoff is leading by about 8% in the polls. The fact that this race is nowhere near competitive is a good sign for Democrats.

Illinois
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton (incumbent Dick Durbin retiring)
Republican: Former Republican state Party Chairman Don Tracy
Overview (5/18/25): The Republicans looking at this race are all minor-leaguers. I'm not worried about this one.
(4/19/26): Stratton is a lock.

Iowa
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (incumbent Republican Joni Ernst retiring)
Democrat: State Representative Josh Turek
Overview (5/18/25): Republican Joni Ernst incumbent. I grew up in Iowa. It's unrecognizable to me now. No matter how disastrous Republicans policies are for the state, the GOP just keeps winning. There actually is some hope for the gubernatorial race in Iowa in 2026. But Iowans love them some Ernst for some reason.
(4/19/26): Ernst is out thank God. On the one hand, the polls show Republican Hinson with a slight edge. On the other hand, red-state Iowa seems somewhat tired of its incompetent Republican leadership. Over in the Iowa gubernatorial race, state Auditor and Democrat Rob Sand is polling a considerable lead over Republican Congressman Randy Feenstra. If Sand wins that race by 8 points, there might be enough coattails to carry Zach Wahls to victory in this Senate race.
(6/4/26) The biggest development here is actually in the gubernatorial race. Presumptive GOP nominee narrowly lost to "some guy" from Kansas, an anti-vaccine nut named Zach Lahn. If Democrat Rob Sand crushes Lahn at the top of ticket, Democrat John Turek will probably win this Senate race.
(8/24/26) Polls show Hinson leading by about 1%. Meanwhile, over in the gubernatorial race Democrat Rob Sand is leading crazy Kansas Republican Zach Lahn by about 5%. It's hard to believe that we could get a "split decision" on those two races, but it wouldn't surprise me. This race is too close to call, but if nothing changes I'll call it for Turek.

Kansas
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Roger Marshall (incumbent)
Democrat: Adam Hamilton, Methodist Minister
Overview (5/18/25): Quiz question: Who was George McGill? Answer: Mr. McGill was the last Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas. That was in...get ready...1932!
(8/24/26): A recent poll shows Marshall winning this race by only 1%. Marshall is very, very likely to win. But it's fun to have this race on the competitive list.

Kentucky
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Congressman Andy Barr (incumbent Mitch McConnell retiring)
Democrat: Charles Booker
Overview (5/18/25): Popular Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is not running in this race, so there's about a 99% chance the Republican nominee will win.
(4/19/26): Andy Barr has the charisma of pond scum. Democrats should be running a competitive race here, but it ain't gonna happen.

Maine
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Susan Collins incumbent
Democrat: Former state Senator Troy Jackson
Overview (5/18/25): In one of the most frustrating races of all time, Democrats were very confident of beating Susan Collins in 2020. Polls showed Democratic nominee ahead by about 5%; she lost by 8.6%. This race will attract a lot of attention and money, but Collins is likely unbeatable.
(4/19/26): After getting off to a slow start, it looks like Democrat Graham Platner is going to defeat Governor Janet Mills in the primary. Polls show Platner leading incumbent Susan Collins comfortably. Of course we've been burned by that before. I'll probably end up predicting a Platner win then not being surprised when Collins holds on. Again.
(8/24/26) Jackson is ahead by around 3% in the polls. Nate Silver is currently given him a 70% likelihood of winning. 

Michigan
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (incumbent Gary Peters retiring)
Republican: Congressman Mike Rogers
Overview (5/18/25): Democrats managed to elect Elaine Slotkin to the open Senate seat here despite Trump's narrow win in 2024. The blue team has the edge in this race, but a win is far from guaranteed.
(4/19/26): Polls show the race for the Democratic nomination to be very close. Same goes for the general election. But it's hard to be believe the Republicans could flip this seat this year.
(8/24/26): Certainly the weirdest phenomenon this year is out-of-nowhere, lefty Muslim candidate winning the Democratic primary. The blue team is lucky Mike Rogers is just not a good candidate. El-Sayed is ahead in the polls and Nate Silver gives him a 68% chance of winning.

Minnesota
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Angie Craig (likely) (incumbent Tina Smith retiring)
Republican: Journalist Michele Tafoya
Overview (5/18/25): I'm encouraged by the fact that the Democrats will probably have a top-tier candidate in this race while the Republicans will not.
(4/19/26): Thanks to the ICE invasion of Minnesota this year, the Republican party is toxic there.

Mississippi
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)
Democrat: District Attorney Scott Colom
Overview (6/4/26): Do I think Democrat Scott Colom will win? No. But just the fact that Republicans have to make a serious effort this year to defend seats like Florida, Nebraska and Mississippi means they have fewer resources to spend on the close races in other states. 

Nebraska
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Pete Ricketts (incumbent)
Independent/Democrat: Retired Naval Officer Dan Osborn
Overview (5/18/25): In a state that just passed a constitutional amendment severely limiting abortion, I'm not sanguine about the Democratic party's chances, or about an independent candidacy threatening Ricketts.
(8/24/26): Though there are no recent polls, Dan Osborn is keeping this race close. Like Kansas, this race is another headache for Republicans when it should be a piece of cake.

New Hampshire
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Chris Pappas (incumbent Jean Shaheen retiring)
Republican: Former Senator John Sununu
Overview (5/18/25): Yet another Democratic retirement. Sigh. OK, well, Chris Pappas has the edge here over the second and third-tier Republicans looking at this race.
(4/19/26): Former Senator Sununu coming out of retirement to try to win back his old seat is a bit of a curve ball for Democrats. But I like Pappas' chances.

North Carolina
Rating: Likely Democratic pickup
Republican: Michael Watley (incumbent Thom Tillis retiring)
Democrat: Former Governor Roy Cooper
Overview: Democrats saw crushing disappointments in North Carolina in 2020, including losing a Senate race that every poll said they would win. The blue team starts the 2026 election cycle with some hope here, as Democrat Josh Stein just won the gubernatorial election by 15 points. Any hope of winning back the Senate goes through North Carolina.
(7/2/25): Tillis is out. If the Democrats have a good nominee, and the Republicans anything less than a near-perfect nominee, this race will lean blue.
(8/14/25): Cooper is in. I like his chances.
(4/19/26): This race will not be close.

Ohio:
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Jon Husted (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Senator Sherrod Brown
Overview (5/18/25): Republican Jon Husted was appointed to this seat. Appointed incumbents don't have a particularly good track record when it comes to winning a full term in the next election. Sherrod Brown had a kind of magic, winning three races in red-state Ohio before losing by 3 last year as Trump carried the state by 11 points. It will take a blue wave and then some for Brown to complete a come back.
(4/19/26): Nominating MAGA lunatic Vivek Ramaswamy for Governor will probably turn out to be a bad move for Ohio Republicans. I think Democrat Amy Acton is going to win that race. That means Democrats also have a good chance in this Senate race. The polls are close, but Brown is running a great campaign while Husted is being dragged down by a bribery scandal.
(6/4/26) A new Fox poll shows Brown leading by 8. If that's true in November, I'll be calling this race for Brown.

Oklahoma
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: Appointed incumbent David Hern (incumbent Markwayne Mullin retired)
Democrat: ?
Overview (5/18/25): Senator Markwayne Mullin's biggest accomplishment is trying to start a fistfight with the President of the Teamsters in a congressional hearing. Great job, Oklahoma.
(4/19/26): Mullin has quit the Senate to run DHS. Some other right-wing nut will win this race; I'm not going to bother writing any more about it.

South Carolina
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Appointed incumbent Darline Graham or Congressman Ralph Norman
Democrat: Doctor Annie Andrews
Overview (8/24/26): Suffice to say that I don't miss the last Senator Lindsey Graham. "National security is not my thing," says his sister Darline who was appointed to this seat. She'd rather talk about transgender athletes, though there are no transgender athletes in South Carolina. Democrat Annie Andrews is a fine candidate and this race could maybe, possibly be close by election day.

Texas
Rating: Toss up
Republican: State Attorney General Ken Paxton (defeated incumbent John Cornyn)
Democrat: State Representative James Talarico
Libertarian: Ted Brown
Overview: (5/1/25) Democrats will tell you they are playing the long game in Texas. A very, very long game. Population demographics keep changing in ways which would seem to favor Democrats, and Beto O'Rourke keeping registering new voters, yet the blue team just keeps getting stomped. And frankly, Democrats are getting tired of trying to get excited about statewide races in Texas (and Florida) only to lose every time. I would not even be writing about this race except for the fact that it looks like relatively-sane incumbent John Cornyn is going to lose a primary challenge to criminal nut-job Ken Paxton. In theory, this means Democrats have a chance. But come on, it's Texas.
(4/19/26): "Republicans are speeding toward doomsday scenario in Texas". That's the headline on Dailykos, and I happen to agree.
1. Republicans Cornyn and Paxton are locked in a bitter runoff.
2. Neither is raising a lot of money, and what they are raising they have to spend fighting each other.
3. Paxton seems to be the favorite to win the runoff, and "Most concerning of all is that, if Paxton were the nominee, a whopping 24% of Cornyn voters said they would be either very or somewhat likely to vote for Democratic candidate James Talarico."
(6/4/26) Polling shows Talarico with a small lead over Paxton. Libertarian Ted Brown may play the spoiler. He also ran for Senate in 2024, taking 2.4% of the vote.
(8/24/26) Nate Silver is showing Talarico 59% likely to win this race. Paxton is not raising any serious money. If nothing changes, I'll be calling this one for the blue team.

Races unlikely to become competitive:

Arkansas: Republican Tom Cotton incumbent. An age may unfold ere there is another competitive statewide race here.

Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper incumbent. Colorado is surrounded by seven very red states, but I expect no trouble in this race.

Delaware: Democrat Chris Coons incumbent. At a time when transgender people are hated in America, it was nice to see Delaware elect Sarah McBride to Congress. This seat is safely blue.

Idaho: Republican Jim Risch incumbent. I've been to Idaho, it's beautiful. Let's quit while we're ahead.

Louisiana: Republican Bill Cassidy incumbent defeated by Julia Letlow for the GOP nomination. Elections in Louisiana used to be interesting affairs with colorful candidates. Not any more.

Massachusetts: Ed Markey incumbent. Nothing to see here.

Montana: Republican Steve Daines incumbent. (5/18/25): Montana used to be a somewhat purple state. Not any more. 4/19/26: Five minutes before the filing deadline, Steve Daines dropped out and former US Attorney Kurt Alme jumped in. Whatever. Alme will win. While the Democratic party has shown signs of life in many red states this year, in Montana it has not.

New Jersey: Cory Booker incumbent. Trump got 46% in New Jersey, good grief. Nevertheless, I don't think Booker is in any trouble.

New Mexico: Ben Ray Luján incumbent. The New Mexico Republican party is pretty weak stuff. They didn't mount much of an offense in the 2024 Senate race there even though Trump made the race fairly close.

Oregon: Jeff Merkley incumbent. Merkley is probably running and thus will win another term.

Rhode Island: Jack Reed incumbent. Reed is running and will win another term.

South Dakota: Republican Mike Rounds incumbent. The Dakotas just keep moving to the right.

Tennessee: Republican Bill Hagerty incumbent. Outlook: The Democratic party doesn't even bother to try to field serious candidates in statewide races any more. They might as well go with the strategy of letting Hagerty run unopposed, hoping that reduced Republican turnout will help Democrats in other races.

Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner incumbent. Virginia's not all that blue, but I anticipate no trouble here. Trump trying to hurt Virginia's large federal worker population isn't doing the GOP any favors.

West Virginia: Republican Shelley Moore Capito incumbent. The Republican will win another term with about 70% of the vote.

Wyoming: Republican Cynthia Lummis incumbent. Republicans control the Wyoming state Senate 29 to 2 and state House 56 to 6. So yeah.

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