Current Senate: 51 D and 49 R
Final Prediction: 50 D and 50 R
Democrats to pickup TX. Republicans to pickup MT and WV.
Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. I put all open-seat races on the competitive list. This post will be updated continuously until election day.
Likely to be competitive and open-seat:
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Independent: Krysten Sinema (incumbent)
Democrat: Congressman Ruben Gallego
Republican: Former Journalist Kari Lake?
Overview: (6/20/23) The bad news is Krysten Sinema, now an "independent" still caucusing with the Democrats, may run for reelection. Although she has no chance of winning, she might siphon enough votes from Ruben Gallego to hand this race to the GOP. The good news is that Gallego is a great candidate, Arizona is trending blue, and Arizona Republicans are having a hard time coming up with a strong candidate.
(12/3/23): So far it looks like Sinema is running as an independent, and Republicans will get stuck with batshit-crazy former journalist Kari Lake, who still believes she is the Governor of Arizona even though she it not. Polls suggest Lake and Sinema will split the conservative vote, allowing Ruben Gallego to win with a plurality.
Overview: (6/20/23) The bad news is Krysten Sinema, now an "independent" still caucusing with the Democrats, may run for reelection. Although she has no chance of winning, she might siphon enough votes from Ruben Gallego to hand this race to the GOP. The good news is that Gallego is a great candidate, Arizona is trending blue, and Arizona Republicans are having a hard time coming up with a strong candidate.
(12/3/23): So far it looks like Sinema is running as an independent, and Republicans will get stuck with batshit-crazy former journalist Kari Lake, who still believes she is the Governor of Arizona even though she it not. Polls suggest Lake and Sinema will split the conservative vote, allowing Ruben Gallego to win with a plurality.
California
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win.
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Adam Schiff or Congresswoman Katie Porter (likely) (incumbent Laphonza Butler retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: (12/3/23): California has a jungle primary, and it's looking like the runoff could be between two Democrats. That could give a big boost to Democrats in California up and down the ticket.
Overview: (12/3/23): California has a jungle primary, and it's looking like the runoff could be between two Democrats. That could give a big boost to Democrats in California up and down the ticket.
Delaware
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester (incumbent tom Carper retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester will win.
Florida
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Rick Scott (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Overview 12/3/23: Scott is the overwhelming favorite at this point. There is the chance, however slim, that Florida will swing back to the left a bit. The Republican hegemony in Florida is increasingly unpopular.
Indiana
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Mike Braun retiring and running for Governor)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: Mike Braun (R) is retiring to run for Governor, but Democratic chances in Indiana have gone from slim to none.
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester (incumbent tom Carper retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester will win.
Florida
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Rick Scott (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Overview 12/3/23: Scott is the overwhelming favorite at this point. There is the chance, however slim, that Florida will swing back to the left a bit. The Republican hegemony in Florida is increasingly unpopular.
Indiana
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Mike Braun retiring and running for Governor)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: Mike Braun (R) is retiring to run for Governor, but Democratic chances in Indiana have gone from slim to none.
Maryland
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George's County Executive (incumbent Ben Cardin retiring)
Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win.
Michigan
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin? Debbie Stabenow (incumbent Debbie Stabenow retiring)
Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?
Overview (6/20/23): This one's probably simple. Biden beat Trump by 3% in Michigan in 2020, and the Democrats are likely to field a stronger candidate than the Republicans.
(12/3/23): James Craig is the black former Detroit Chief of Police. The idea that he could cobble together a victory by uniting Michigan Republicans and some of the urban black vote is an intriguing one, but I'll believe it when I see it. Craig tried to run for Governor in 2022, and it went pretty badly. Democrat Elissa Slotkin is running a strong campaign.
MontanaOverview (6/20/23): This one's probably simple. Biden beat Trump by 3% in Michigan in 2020, and the Democrats are likely to field a stronger candidate than the Republicans.
(12/3/23): James Craig is the black former Detroit Chief of Police. The idea that he could cobble together a victory by uniting Michigan Republicans and some of the urban black vote is an intriguing one, but I'll believe it when I see it. Craig tried to run for Governor in 2022, and it went pretty badly. Democrat Elissa Slotkin is running a strong campaign.
Rating: Toss Up
Democrat: Jon Tester (incumbent)
Republican: Businessman Tim Sheehy
Overview (6/20/23): Republicans are more likely to win this seat than incumbent Jon Tester, but he's defied expectations in the past. In 2012, Tester won 48.6% to Republican Denny Rehberg's 44.9% with the Libertarian candidate taking 6.6%. This happened while Mitt Romney beat Obama by 14% in Montana. Tester pulled off an impressive 50.3% to 46.8% victory in 2018. But I think his luck might be about to run out. Democrats have preformed abysmally in the past couple of elections in the northern plains.
(12/3/23): It looks like Republicans are going with racist, misogynist homophobe and political novice Tim Sheehy. Tester is polling well against Sheehy, but he will need every possible break to win.
Republican: Businessman Tim Sheehy
Overview (6/20/23): Republicans are more likely to win this seat than incumbent Jon Tester, but he's defied expectations in the past. In 2012, Tester won 48.6% to Republican Denny Rehberg's 44.9% with the Libertarian candidate taking 6.6%. This happened while Mitt Romney beat Obama by 14% in Montana. Tester pulled off an impressive 50.3% to 46.8% victory in 2018. But I think his luck might be about to run out. Democrats have preformed abysmally in the past couple of elections in the northern plains.
(12/3/23): It looks like Republicans are going with racist, misogynist homophobe and political novice Tim Sheehy. Tester is polling well against Sheehy, but he will need every possible break to win.
Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23) Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice with little fundraising ability as her opponent.
Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview
(6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the
Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23)
Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have
declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice
with little fundraising ability as her opponent.
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Andy Kim (likely)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): Incumbent Bob Menendez is going to jail. Although he hasn't said he's for sure not running for another term, it doesn't matter. The New Jersey Republican party is in bad shape and Democrats have little to fear in this race.
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): Incumbent Bob Menendez is going to jail. Although he hasn't said he's for sure not running for another term, it doesn't matter. The New Jersey Republican party is in bad shape and Democrats have little to fear in this race.
Texas
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democrat: Congressman Colin Allred (likely)
Overview (6/20/23): So Trump only carried Texas by 5 points in 2020. If the GOP ticket proves a total disaster in 2024 (Trump running from prison or something), Texas might actually go blue. That could spell trouble for Ted Cruz who only won by 3 points in 2018.
12/3/23: The $13 million Allred has raised sounds impressive until you realize that Cruz has raised $40 million. Democrats should not kid themselves about this one; it will take a miracle to win.
Utah
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: State House Speaker Brad Wilson? (incumbent Mitt Romney retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. The Republican will win.
West Virginia
Rating: Guaranteed Republican pickup
Democrat: ? (incumbent Joe Manchin retiring)
Republican: Governor Jim Justice (likely)
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Republican Jim Justice will win.
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): So far no Republican has announced to run against Tammy Baldwin. She's looking like a pretty good bet in Wisconsin, which, after trending red for years has started swinging back a bit towards blue. Janet Protasiewicz's 11 point win in this year's Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a good sign.
Overview (12/3/23): It's still the sound of silence on the Republican side. That's good - the less interested Wisconsin Republicans are in voting in 2024, the more likely Joe Biden wins.
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): So far no Republican has announced to run against Tammy Baldwin. She's looking like a pretty good bet in Wisconsin, which, after trending red for years has started swinging back a bit towards blue. Janet Protasiewicz's 11 point win in this year's Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a good sign.
Overview (12/3/23): It's still the sound of silence on the Republican side. That's good - the less interested Wisconsin Republicans are in voting in 2024, the more likely Joe Biden wins.
Unlikely to be competitive:
Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D). Republicans have had high hopes for Connecticut some years ago. Those hopes wnet nowhere.
Hawai'i: Mazie Hirono (D). Even in Republican-leaning years, the GOP has gotten nowhere in Hawai'i congressional races.
Maine: Angus King (I-Democratic caucus). King is quite popular, and Maine seems to like incumbents.
Massachusetts (D). The only way Elizabeth Warren is not still a U.S. Senator years from now is if she runs for higher office.
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D). Strong approval ratings protect Klobuchar from vulnerability. Minnesota has bucked the trend in the northern prairie and trended blue.
Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R). As I noted in a post in 2008,
here's how voting works in Mississippi in statewide races: white people
vote Republican, black people vote Democratic. The population
demographics needed for a serious challenge to Wicker just aren't there.
Missouri: Josh Hawley (R) is a contemptible human being; Missouri doesn't care.
Missouri: Josh Hawley (R) is a contemptible human being; Missouri doesn't care.
Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) is running for another full term and Pete Ricketts (R) is running in a special to complete the term to which he was appointed. Democrats hope in Nebraska to continue to carry the single electoral vote of the Omaha area (NE-2) and maybe some day win a House seat. But a Senate seat ain't happening.
New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D) can expect an easy win as New Mexico trends blue.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Extremely unlikely any Republican will win a statewide race in New York.
North Dakota. Kevin Cramer (R). Does this state even still have a Democratic party?
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. (D). Could become competitive but I'll believe it when I see it.
North Dakota. Kevin Cramer (R). Does this state even still have a Democratic party?
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. (D). Could become competitive but I'll believe it when I see it.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D).
Republicans have made serious inroads in a lot of what were considered
blue states in the past few years. But not in Rhode Island.
Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) is the perfect representative of the ultra-right-wing politics that have gripped Tennessee.
Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) is the perfect representative of the ultra-right-wing politics that have gripped Tennessee.
Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I, Democratic caucus). There is no more popular Senator among his constituents than Bernie.
Virginia: Tim Caine (D). Democrats sometimes receive nasty shocks in Virginia, but with Biden likely to carry the state by double-digits this race is unlikely to be competitive.
Virginia: Tim Caine (D). Democrats sometimes receive nasty shocks in Virginia, but with Biden likely to carry the state by double-digits this race is unlikely to be competitive.
Washington: Maria Cantwell (D).
Republicans have become far less competitive in statewide races in
Washington in recent years, and the blue team did great in 2022. The
GOP nominee for this seat doesn't have a prayer.
Wyoming: John Barrasso (R). Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.
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