Predictions: 2020 US Senate Races

Recent Updates: AK, GA-special, IA, MI

Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats

Current Prediction: 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
Republicans to pickup AL
Democrats to pickup AZ, CO, ME, NC and two of the following:
AK, GA, IA, KS, KY, MT, SC

Overview: (12/22/18) To gain control of the Senate in 2020, Democrats need to net at least four seats. That is, given that there's nearly a 100% chance that incumbent Democrat Doug Jones will lose in Alabama, four pickups for the blue team would mean 50 Senators each for both parties, with Democrats holding the tie-breaker presuming they win the Presidency. A very difficult task, but not impossible.

If you'd like to read what I wrote about this same class of Senators the last time they were up for reelection in 2014, click here. Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. This post will be updated continuously through election day.

Races likely to be competitive:

Alabama
Rating: Likely Republican pickup
Democrat: Doug Jones (incumbent)
Republican: Former Senator Jeff Sessions or football coach Tommy Tuberville
Overview: (12/22/18) Doug Jones ran in a special election to fill Alabama's open seat in 2017, and in a year that favored Democrats and against a Republican who is an insane, criminal pedophile, Jones still won by only 1.7%. There just isn't a plausible scenario where Jones wins this race.
(7/11/19) Republicans aren't thrilled that pedophile Roy Moore is running for this seat again, but I think they have little to worry about it. The chances of Moore getting the nomination are small, and I think if he someone got, he'd probably win.
(12/9/19) Jeff Sessions wants his old job back. He'll probably get it.
(5/10/20) The race for the GOP nomination is a runoff, with Sessions and Tuberville tied in polls. This race is more about Jones being able to keep the race close enough (will certainly still losing) to force Republicans to burn some capital here.

Alaska
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican:  Dan Sullivan (incumbent)
Democrat: Dr. Al Gross
Overview: (7/10/20) Cool! I almost never get to move a race from the 'noncompetitive' list to the 'competitive' list just a few month before the election. A new poll shows that Alaska is another state where the Republican ticket has reached a tipping point: Biden trails Trump by only 3, and little-known surgeon Dr. Al Gross trails Dan Sullivan by only 5. The same poll tantalizingly shows Democrat Alyse Galvin actually leading Don Young for Alaska's lone US House seat. (Young is the "Dean" of the House, having been in office since 1973.)

Arizona (special to fill the remaining two years of John McCain's term)
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Appointed incumbent Martha McSally
Democrat: Astronaut Mark Kelly (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) McSally was appointed to this seat despite losing the open Senate seat race in Arizona in 2018, a somewhat odd choice given that she ran a poor campaign and the voters took a pass on her. I expect Arizona to be competitive at the Presidential level.
(7/11/19) The field seems to be clear for astronaut and husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords to capture this nomination. I'm skeptical of the idea of a political novice running for US Senate, but polling shows this race a toss up and Kelly has a good chance to win.
(5/10/20) Arizona turning blue: Kelly and Biden both lead in current polls.

Colorado
Rating: Likely Democratic pickup
Republican: Cory Gardner (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Governor John Hickenlooper (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) In 2014, Democratic heavyweight picked the wrong year to run a bad campaign, and lost to right-winger Cory Gardner by 2% in what is increasingly a blue state. Colorado is the number one Democratic target.
(12/9/19) Former Govenor John Hickenlooper is in. He's almost a lock to win this race.

Georgia
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican:  David Perdue (incumbent)
Democrat: Journalist Jon Ossoff (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) Democrats have been making a lot of noise in trying to turn red-state Georgia more competitive, yet they continue to lose. A strong candidate for the blue team will make this a competitive race, but again, Georgia is still a red state, and incredibly effective in suppressing the Democratic vote.
(12/9/19) No top-tier Democrat has announced; should be easy for Perdue.
(5/10/20) Democrat Jon Ossoff is a good fundraiser and good at seizing the news cycle. This race will be competitive but it will take a Democratic tidal wave (including Biden carrying Georgia) for Ossoff to win.

Georgia (special to fill the remaining two years of Johnny Isakson's term)
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican:  appointed incumbent Kelly Loeffler Or Congressman Doug Collins (likely)
Democrat: The Reverend Ralph Warnock?
Overview: (1/29/20) Democrats are sanguine about running a competitive race against Trump in Georgia. On paper, that should also make this Senate race competitive. But until a top-tier Democrat announces for this race, Republicans are favored. One thing to make this interesting: The November election will be "jungle" style, with all candidates on one ticket and the top-two finishers forced to a runoff if no one gets 50% of the vote. A runoff is likely with two Republicans in the race.
(5/10/20) Collins is the likely nominee for the GOP, as Loeffler is mired in an insider stock trading scandal. The Democrats running are nobodies (Senator Joe Lieberman's son?); this seat is safe for the GOP.
(7/10/20) Democrat Ralph Warnock is polling pretty well vs. the scandal-plagued Kelly Loeffler, but I'm not sanguine about Democrats' chances here. First there's some possibility that Republicans Loeffler and Collins will actually finish first and second in the November primary, creating a runoff between the two. Second, a runoff election between a Republican and a Democrat will tend to favor the GOP.

Iowa
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Joni Ernst (incumbent)
Democrat: Businesswoman Theresa Greenfield
Overview: (12/22/18) Senator Tom Harkin was a hero of mine. When he retired in 2014, it looked at first like this would be an easy hold for Democrats. Then we were introduced to Joni Ernst. Among her many fine qualities, she opposed the Farm Bill, and she wants to abolish minimum wage, privatize social security, and prohibit same-sex marriage. On paper Ernst is beatable. On the other hand, Iowa's incredibly bad Republican Governor Kim Reynolds was just reelected, so I really don't have much hope for this race.
(7/11/19) Trump's trade war is deeply unpopular in Iowa. That should give hope to the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020, but I'm not holding out for that to spell trouble for Joni Ernst. Ernst is a very adept politician with a surprisingly high approval rating, and it increasingly appears that she'll face a third-tier opponent in 2020.
(12/9/19) Ernst has been revealed as flagrantly violating campaign finance law. But I'm not holding out an hope that Iowans are going to get their sanity back any time soon. How's that trade war working out for you?
(5/10/20) A recent poll shows the virtually unknown Theresa Greenfield only a point behind Ernst, and Biden trailing Trump by only two in Iowa. With Trump's reelection prospects starting to look like those of Iowa's own Herbert Hoover in 1932, I'm starting to have hope for this seat to go blue.
(7/29/20) Interesting thing about the last Des Moines Register poll. I've assumed that the only way for Greenfield to win is for Biden to carry Iowa for a big enough margin to compensate for conservative voters who refuse to support Trump but still vote for Ernst. But the DMR poll suggests this is not a concern - it shows Trump leading Biden by 1, but Greenfield leading Ernst by 3. If Ernst is that unpopular, I've reason to be optimistic Greenfield will win.

Kansas
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: State Treasurer Jake LaTurner or former Secretary of State Kris Kobach (incumbent Pat Roberts retiring)
Democrat: State Senator Barbara Bollier (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) Democrats haven't elected a Senator in Kansas since 1932. There is however a possibility that Roberts will retire, and while even an open-seat race is unlikely to be competitive, a strong third-party candidacy could shake things up. In 2014, Roberts was widely expected to lose to independent Greg Orman, but alas that was not to be.
(7/11/19) A lot of Kansas Republicans would like to be rid of Kris Kobach, who lost them to 2018 gubernatorial race and who has been fined by a federal judge for making "patently misleading representations to the court" regarding his insane theories about voter fraud. But like a bad penny, Kobach keeps turning up and may capture the Senate nomination. For the Democrats to have a chance here it will probably require Kobach as the GOP nominee, a Democrat who runs a flawless campaign, and probably a third-party candidacy that draws disaffected Republicans away from Kobach. Don't count on all that happening.
(5/10/20) There's every indication Kobach will be the GOP nominee. Democrat Bollier leads him in two recent polls. We could see polls showing the Democratic nominee leading right up to election day and I'd be disinclined to believe them.


Kentucky
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Mitch McConnell (incumbent)
Democrat: Marine Corps pilot Amy McGrath
Overview: (12/22/18) In 2008 McConnell was nearly beaten by third-tier candidate Democrat Bruce Lunsford. If the blue team had nominated a stronger candidate, they would have won. Too bad. And in 2014 McConnell faced a surprisingly strong challenge from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. But Kentucky has moved hard to the right, and McConnell is Senate majority leader.
(7/11/19) It's great to see Amy McGrath challenge McConnell. I'm sure she'll give him a run for his money. But while McConnell has an approval rating lower than most diseases, he's still highly likely to win.

Maine:
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Susan Collins (incumbent).
Democrat: State Speaker of the House Sarah Gideon
Overview: (12/22/18) Democrats think Collins is vulnerable. They've thought that before, and always been wrong.
(12/9/19) Collins' approval rating has plummeted. An October poll showed her trailing a generic Democrat. Democrats should finally get the competitive race against Collins they've been hoping for.
(5/10/20) Gideon is polling well. Polls are also suggesting Biden could carry Maine by double digits; a 10-point margin at the top of the ticket would virtually guarantee a Democratic victory in this race.

Michigan
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Gary Peters (incumbent)
Republican: Businessman John James
Overview: (12/9/19) This race is probably a lock, but that's what they said about Hillary Clinton winning Michigan in 2016.
(7/29/20) The GOP has a good candidate in John James. If this were the 2014 election, there's a good chance he'd win. But polls indicate that Biden is ahead about 8 points in Michigan so Peters is pretty safe.

Minnesota
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Tina Smith (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview: Donald Trump nearly carried Minnesota in 2016, but in 2018 the state seemed to recover from its swing to the right, and I doubt Smith will be in trouble in 2020.

Montana
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Steve Daines (incumbent)
Democrat: Governor Steve Bullock
Overview: (12/9/19) Democrats somewhat improbably hold the Governor's office and the other Senate seat in Montana, so maybe a really great candidate could beat Daines? It's not impossible.
(5/10/20): Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is owning the news cycle every day with his state's excellent response to the covid crisis. He's ahead in recent polls. If Biden can lose Montana by only a few points to Trump (and polls suggest he can), Bullock look good to win this race.

North Carolina
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: State House Speaker Thom Tillis
Democrat: Former state Senator Cal Cunningham (likely)
Libertarian: ?
Overview: (12/22/18) North Carolina incumbent Senators lose a lot when they run for reelection. Democrats intend to pull out all the stops to win this one, as there just aren't a lot of incumbent Republicans who appear vulnerable.
(7/11/19) Tillis must be unpopular indeed; two recent polls show him losing to two Democrats who don't have particularly high name recognition.
(5/10/20) North Carolina's other Republican Senator Richard Burr is mired in a stock trading scandal. Burr isn't Tillis, but some of the negativity of the Burr scandal may be spreading, as Cunningham is showing large leads in the polls against Tillis. Recent polls even show Biden carrying North Carolina. Feeling good about this one.

South Carolina
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Lindsey Graham (incumbent)
Democrat: DNC Associate Chairman Jaime Harrison
Overview: (7/11/19) If this race is competitive, it's probably the Republican primary that makes it so. Lindsey Graham seems to have lost his mind. Of course, since when do Republicans care about that? Possibly a big name will emerge to challenge him for the nomination.
(5/10/20) Jaime Harrison is running a fine campaign. He's not going to win, but I think he'll force Republicans to waste resources here that they'd rather spend somewhere else.

Tennessee:
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Lamar Alexander retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview: This open-seat race is competitive in name only. Democrats thought they finally had a chance in Tennessee in 2018 when popular former Governor Phil Bredesen ran in the open-seat Senate race against ultra-righ-winger Marsha Blackburn. Yet Bredesen lost by over 10%.

Wyoming:
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Mike Enzi retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview: (7/11/19) Another open-seat race competitive in name only. The sun may go red giant before the Democrats win a Senate race in Wyoming. The fact that not one of the Democrats being talked about for this nomination is a current office holder should tell you something.


Races unlikely to become competitive:

Arkansas: Republican Tom Cotton incumbent. Unbeatable.

Delaware: Democrat Chris Coons incumbent. The Republican party is no longer much of a competitor in Delaware.

Hawai'i: Democrat Brian Schatz incumbent. Unbeatable.

Idaho: Republican Jim Risch incumbent. Unbeatable.

Illinois: Democrat Dick Durbin incumbent. Unbeatable.

Louisiana: Republican Bill Cassidy incumbent. It's funny that Cassidy is the first Republican to hold this seat since reconstruction, because it's hard to imagine a Democrat ever winning here again.

Massachusetts: Democrat Ed Markey incumbent. Unbeatable.

Mississippi: Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith incumbent. Hyde-Smith just won a special election to this seat in 2018, and now that the voters have gotten used to her there's no chance the Democrats are going to make this one competitive.

Nebraska: Republican Ben Sasse incumbent. Sasse is a "moderate", in that he supports everything Trump does while criticizing him on Twitter. Democrats did worse than hoped in Nebraska in 2018, and I think it will be a long time before we win a statewide election there.

New Hampshire: Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen incumbent. New Hampshire is trending blue.

New Jersey: Democrat: Cory Booker incumbent. Unbeatable.

New Mexico: Democrat Tom Udall incumbent. Udall has avoided any controversies that would tend to bring his approval ratings down, and the Republican bench in New Mexico is so thin you practically can’t see it.

Oklahoma: Republican James Inhofe incumbent. Inhofe will be 86 years old. Can't we please, please be spared another six years of the man who calls climate change the, "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people"?

Oregon: Democrat Jeff Merkley incumbent. The Oregon GOP is totally inept, and Trump unpopularity on the west coast isn't doing them any favors. 

Rhode Island: Democrat Jack Reed incumbent. Blue-state Rhode Island is, if possible, becoming even more blue. Reed is one of the most popular, if least talked about, members of the Senate.

South Dakota: Republican Mike Rounds incumbent. Barring some kind of third-party candidacy that can take a lot of Republican votes from Rounds, I can't see a scenario where he loses.

Texas: Republican John Cornyn incumbent. Texas is slowly moving from red-state to purple-state, but Cornyn has little to worry about. As Republican Senators go, his crazy-quotient is fairly low.

Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner incumbent. Warner’s popularity makes him a good bet for another term, Virginia continues to trend blue.

West Virginia: Republican Shelley Moore Capito incumbent. Few West Virginians vote Democratic in Presidential election years.

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