Friday, November 06, 2026

2026 Election Results: The Good Riddance Report

The 2026 election is over, and my predictions for a medium-size blue wave turned out to be far too conservative. It was a big blue tsunami! Before we consider anything else, let's take some time to celebrate the departure of all the crazy, racist, bigoted, homophobic, criminal, corrupt Republicans who are now out of power. It's the Good Riddance Report! Let's go alphabetically by state:

California
A fixture of odious conservative politics since the 1990s, America is finally rid of congressman Darrell Issa, who chose not to run for reelection. As I wrote in 2014, Issa was the Republican's point man in its phony, lying investigation of the IRS: "So, to summarize Congressman Issa's actions so far. In May, 2013 the Inspector General released the results of its skewed investigation. Issa then used the results of that investigation, along with excerpts from interviews with IRS agents that he refused to release publicly, to make demonstrably false statements about what the IRS was and was not doing, then made additional false accusations against the White House based on those false statements."

Colorado
MAGA favorite congresswoman Lauren Boebert has lost her ruby-red district to Democrat Eileen Laubacher. Boebert represented the absolute worst of bigoted White nationalist rhetoric, among other things.

Iowa
As a former intern for Democratic Senator Tom Harkin, I was deeply disappointed by the loss of his seat in 2014 to the hyper-conservative Joni Ernst. Ernst is now mostly remembered for her inappropriate relationships with top military men who lobbied before her Senate committee. Ernst is gone now, her seat won by Democrat Josh Turek following her retirement.

Iowa is also finally rid of congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who for years has been a hard-right figure in the swing district where I used to live. MMM's seat was won on Tuesday by Democrat Christina Bohannon.

Kansas
"I didn't send people to jail because they couldn't pay small medical debts. I hired other people to do it." The never popular Senator Roger Marshall lost his reelection bid in the first Senate race win for Kansas Democrats since 1932. Marshall sounded a lot like a mafia boss when he attempted to defend his actions in suing hundreds of people over medical debts of as little as $101 and having them arrested when they failed to make court appearances.

Republican Attorney General Kris Kobach also lost his reelection bid. From Charlie Pierce of Esquire.com: "
Kris Kobach of Kansas—and never has a phrase with three K’s been more apt—is one of the founding weasels of the modern voter-suppression effort. If there is an odious policy position concocted since 2008, Kobach has run the laboratory that produced it. Imaginary voter fraud? Kobach led the farcical election-integrity commission during Trump I that fell apart after a contentious 2017 hearing in New Hampshire at which Kobach’s contentions were disemboweled by Maine secretary of state Matthew Dunlap. Draconian immigration policies? As Kansas secretary of state, Kobach tried to initiate a "proof of citizenship" law that lined him up on the wrong side of the League of Women Voters. Outright racism? Kobach told a radio program that the Obama administration was not far from a call for an end to all prosecutions of African Americans. If there was an ur-Trumper before Trump, it was Kris Kobach."

Maryland
From boltsmag.org: "Chuck Jenkins, the notoriously anti-immigrant Maryland sheriff who boasts of having helped deport 2,000 people, was wiped out in Tuesday’s blue wave. Voters in Frederick County, a fast-growing and increasingly liberal area north of Washington, D.C., denied his bid for a sixth term. They opted for his opponent, Democrat Karl Bickel, by a margin of 56 to 44 percent. César Díaz, president of the city council in Frederick, which is the county’s largest city, called Jenkins’s defeat “a repudiation of evil."

Maine
As long last, we're rid of Senator Susan Collins, who was defeated in her bid for a sixth term in the Senate. From Planned Parenthood: "Collins has spent the entirety of Trump’s second term falling in line by confirming 94% of his anti-abortion judges alongside dangerously unqualified people to lead key healthcare agencies. To put it simply, Susan Collins is a threat to abortion access and cannot be trusted with protecting Mainers’ rights."

New Jersey
Elected as a Democrat in New Jersey's second congressional district., Jeff Van Drew flipped to the Republicans in 2020, promising Trump his "undying support". Despite the district being redrawn to make it more Republican, Van Drew was defeated on Tuesday by Democrat Zach Mullock.

Nevada
David Flippo lost his bid to win the very red second congressional district in Nevada. NV-02 has never elected a Democrat before. Flippo is known for "stolen valor", claiming military honors he never won. Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson defeated Flippo 50% to 44%.

North Carolina
Republican congresswoman Virginia Foxx was so complacent she didn't bother to seriously campaign this year. Rabid homophobe Foxx lost to Chuck Hubbard, who campaigned to represent LGBTQ+ concerns. Earlier this year when a 10-year old boy wrote to Foxx regarding his thoughts on the electric vehicle tax credit, she responded with a letter suggesting he was being indoctrinated with propaganda at school.

The blue wave also claimed 
Republican congressman Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Hudson was closely associated with North Carolina's infamous "bathroom bill" targeting the rights of transgender people.

Ohio
Republicans in Ohio must be asking themselves what they were thinking when they nominated the totally unqualified MAGA favorite Vivek Ramaswamy for Governor. For some reason, Ramaswamy thought it wise to run a campaign ad featuring his opponent 
Democrat Dr. Amy Acton’s estranged mother. From The Ohio Capitol Journal: "In the ad, the biological mom, Donna Arthur, calls the Democrat a liar. Court documents show Acton’s stepfather was arrested for raping her as a child, and Arthur lost custody. The couple fled the state to avoid a trial. Acton said she has not seen her mother in nearly 50 years."

Ohio is also rid of congressman Max Miller, who refused to step aside following allegations that he had violently abused his ex-wife and young daughter. Miller was defeated by Democrat Brian Poindexter.

South Carolina
Congresswoman Nancy Mace is leaving Washington. Mace unsuccessfully sought the Governor's office in South Carolina this year rather than run for another term in the US House. Mace is remembered for 
her effort to ban transgender women from using female bathrooms at the U.S. Capitol in a direct response to the election of Sarah McBride, the first openly transgender person in Congress.

Texas
Where to begin? Democrats swept the statewide races, even going 4-for-4 in ousting Texas Supreme Court Justices.

The biggest wins of the night are the defeats of three-term Governor Greg Abbott and powerful Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. From The New York Times: "For a dozen years, Republicans forced Texas further to the right. Conservative legislators outlawed abortion, banned diversity offices in colleges, legalized the open carrying of firearms on their campuses, and stripped rights from the state’s gay community. They targeted big cities, all run by Democrats, by restricting local control. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick led those efforts."

Democrat James Talarico won a U.S. Senate seat, ending the GOP’s 32-year Texas statewide winning streak. Where to even begin with Republican Ken Paxton? From securities fraud and bribery to spending some of the 2026 campaign season vacationing with a mistress in England, Paxton was one of the most corrupt politicians in American history.

Washington DC
Harmeet Dhillon resigned as the U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Civil Rights Division on November 5, 2026, following a deeply controversial tenure and the aftermath of the midterm elections. She spearheaded aggressive investigations and settlements against universities targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives and pro-Palestinian demonstrations, famously stating, "Either DEI will end on its own or we will kill it". Critics and former DOJ career attorneys accused her of reversing the core mission of the Civil Rights Division. Her tenure included dropping over 50 desegregation cases, ending police department investigations, and halting various Biden-era consent decrees.

Wisconsin
Democrat Rebecca Cooke defeated Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District on Tuesday, on her third try in three elections. Van Orden consistently made himself odious, including such behaviors as creating AI deepfake videos of his Democratic opponent and calling teenage congressional pages "pieces of shit."


Good bye and good riddance all!




Friday, October 30, 2026

2026 Final Election Predictions

2026 Final Election Predictions

US Senate

Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D

2026 Prediction: 53 D, 47 R

Democrats to pickup Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and one of the following: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina.

Notes:
* I'm going with Troy Jackson to flip Maine even though Susan Collins has a history of outperforming the polls. I will not be surprised if Collins wins.
* The final polls show the Democratic candidates leading in both Iowa and Kansas, a tiny edge for the independent candidate opposing the Republican incumbent in Nebraska, and a tie in South Carolina. But given the Republican lean to those states, I'm think the blue team has a strong chance of picking up one of those 4. Winning 2 is not out of the question.

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US House

Current Senate: 220 R, 215 D

2026 Prediction: 233 D, 202 R

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Governor's Races

Democrats to pickup Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Nevada.

Notes: Here I'm playing it a little aggressively for the Democrats.
* Georgia has a dead heat race, but I'm calling this one as a flip to the blue team based on low enthusiasm among Republicans. It looks like Democrat Jon Ossoff might win reelection to the Senate by 10 points or more, and there are only so many Ossoff voters who might vote for the Republican candidate in the gubernatorial race there.
* Kansas has looked all year like it's going to flip to the Republicans. Two high quality polls have just been released. Emerson has the Republican up by 5, while the Washington Post has the Democrat up by 6. So what the heck, I'll call this one a Democratic hold.
* There hasn't been much polling in Nevada and the incumbent Republican has looked tough to beat. But Democratic turnout looks good so far and the only recent quality poll of this race shows the Democrat up by 4.




Monday, August 24, 2026

A Few Links to Dispel Conservative Myths, Part 24: Transgender Athletes

In a recent debate for this November's South Carolina Senate race, appointed incumbent Senator Darline Graham Nordone was asked about her stance on security concerns in the South China Sea. Her response was, "I'm not that informed on national security." Attempting to clarify this baffling statement, Graham later said, "I think people in South Carolina are more worried about making ends meet, they’re concerned about boys in girls’ sports. One lady talked to me extensively about that today."

I appreciated this response to Graham from Alex Bollinger of LGBTQNation: "This raises more even questions. South Carolina banned trans kids from participating in sports teams matching their gender in 2022. There are no known trans girls playing school sports on girls’ teams in the state. The NCAA now bans trans athletes in college sports, and the president has pressured the Olympics and other amateur sports leagues to no longer let trans women participate. So in what world are South Carolina Republicans "concerned" about trans athletes? What was that "one lady" – if she even exists – talking to Graham Nordone "extensively" about? Like, what could she actually say on the matter? The right won, at least in South Carolina. They banned trans people at every level in the state from playing sports. What more could they want?"

I think what Graham and other Republicans want is to milk the transgender athlete issue for all it's worth, for the simple reason that it's just about the only issue about which Americans agree more with Republicans than they do with Democrats. Sadly, only one in four Americans agree with trans women participating in female sports in a yes/no question.


Furthermore, Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post noted in late 2024 that two-thirds or more of Americans favor:
* Green energy subsidies
* Increased wealth taxes
* Protecting and expanding both Obamacare and Medicare
* Providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children
* Reaffirming our commitment to NATO
* Protecting abortion rights
* Gay marriage
* Expanded infrastructure spending
* Banning assault weapons
* Reforming the Supreme Court
* Teaching black history
* Stopping book bans
* Legalizing marijuana

So expect Republicans to continue to talk a whole lot about the tiny number of transgender girls and women in girl's and women's sports. Also expect them to continue to spread a lot on untruths to get political mileage. Here are three.

1. From Chase Strangio and Gabriel Arkles of the American Civil Liberties Union:
Myth: Trans athletes’ physiological characteristics provide an unfair advantage over cis athletes.
Fact: Trans athletes do not have an unfair advantage in sports.
"A person’s genetic make-up and internal and external reproductive anatomy are not useful indicators of athletic performance," according to Dr. Joshua D. Safer. "For a trans woman athlete who meets NCAA standards, "there is no inherent reason why her physiological characteristics related to athletic performance should be treated differently from the physiological characteristics of a non-transgender woman."

The Transgender Initiatives Office of San Francisco's city government also notes that, "A 2024 study, funded in part by the IOC and published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, concluded that transgender women athletes may actually have several physical disadvantages when competing with cisgender women." Some of the study’s key findings were that transgender women performed worse than cisgender women and men in tests measuring lower-body strength, lung function, fat-free mass and handgrip strength. Transgender women’s bone density was found to be equivalent to that of cisgender women, which is linked to muscle strength and there were no meaningful differences found between the two groups’ hemoglobin profiles (a key factor in athletic performance).

2. Also from Strangio and Arkles of the ACLU:
Myth: Sex is binary, apparent at birth, and identifiable through singular biological characteristics. 
Fact: Trans girls are girls.
"A person’s sex is made up of multiple biological characteristics and they may not all align as typically male or female in a given person," says Dr. Joshua D. Safer. Further, many people who are not trans can have hormones levels outside of the range considered typical of a cis person of their assigned sex."

3. I recently had a lengthy argument with some MAGA types regarding transgender girls and was repeatedly told:
Myth: A DNA test can determine from birth whether every person is a boy or a girl.
Fact: From Jeffrey Kluger of Time: "Decades of scientific research have shown, that kind of test does not remotely exist. It likely never will.

It’s easy enough to determine basic physical sex with a quick scan for X and Y chromosomes. That can also determine some gender disorders, most commonly XXY—or a person who is superficially male, but carries an extra X, or female, chromosome. The condition, known as Klinefelter syndrome, can result in a range of problems, including delayed or incomplete puberty, comparatively weak bones and undescended testicles. X and Y chromosomes, however, tell you absolutely nothing about gender identity, which is a vastly more complicated matter.

The genes that live on the chromosomes may play some role in determining gender identity—just as they do in determining height and weight and heart disease and athleticism—but it’s a limited one. For example, identical twins share effectively identical genomes, but there are nevertheless cases in which one twin is transgender and the other is not. (It does appear to be likelier that identical twins will have matching gender identities, and the small sample group of ones who are mismatched makes it hard to establish conclusive answers.) In all transgender people, twins or not, womb environment, hormonal factors and differences in brain architecture may be involved as well."

My home state of Washington still allows transgender girls to play girls sports. But that may change. From LaVendrick Smith of the ACLU: "Instead of focusing on solutions that keep kids safe and engaged in the classroom, the group Let’s Go Washington is sponsoring ballot initiatives that invite bullying and discrimination into our children’s schools.

Washington voters will see two of these harmful initiatives on their ballots this fall. One initiative, IL26-638, discriminates against transgender girls by banning them from playing girls’ sports in public schools. The other initiative, IL26-001, seeks to partially repeal a key student privacy law that protects students’ access to counselors and health care."


I'm praying the blue wave this November will keep these initiatives from passing. Things are currently pretty bleak in this country for transgender people. But progressive action had brought positive change before. And as Dr. King said the arc of history is long but it bends towards justice.