2024 US Senate Races

Current Senate: 51 D and 49 R

Final Prediction: 50 D and 50 R
Democrats to pickup TX. Republicans to pickup MT and WV.

Overview: (6/20/23) Though confident for the moment of holding the White House and sanguine about regaining control of the House, the chances for the Democrats to hold the Senate after 2024 are slim. 23 seats currently held by the blue team are up for grabs versus only 11 for the GOP. Furthermore, the Democrats have a number of incumbents running for reelection in red states, while none of the sitting Republicans are in blue states.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. I put all open-seat races on the competitive list. This post will be updated continuously until election day.

Likely to be competitive and open-seat:

 

Arizona
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Independent: Krysten Sinema (incumbent)

Democrat: Congressman Ruben Gallego

Republican: Former Journalist Kari Lake?
Overview: (6/20/23) The bad news is Krysten Sinema, now an "independent" still caucusing with the Democrats, may run for reelection. Although she has no chance of winning, she might siphon enough votes from Ruben Gallego to hand this race to the GOP. The good news is that Gallego is a great candidate, Arizona is trending blue, and Arizona Republicans are having a hard time coming up with a strong candidate.
(12/3/23): So far it looks like Sinema is running as an independent, and Republicans will get stuck with batshit-crazy former journalist Kari Lake, who still believes she is the Governor of Arizona even though she it not. Polls suggest Lake and Sinema will split the conservative vote, allowing Ruben Gallego to win with a plurality.

California
Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Congressman Adam Schiff or Congresswoman Katie Porter (likely) (incumbent Laphonza Butler retiring)

Republican: ?
Overview: (12/3/23): California has a jungle primary, and it's looking like the runoff could be between two Democrats. That could give a big boost to Democrats in California up and down the ticket.

Delaware
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester  (incumbent tom Carper retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester will win.

Florida
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Rick Scott (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Overview 12/3/23: Scott is the overwhelming favorite at this point. There is the chance, however slim, that Florida will swing back to the left a bit. The Republican hegemony in Florida is increasingly unpopular.

Indiana
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Mike Braun retiring and running for Governor)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: Mike Braun (R) is retiring to run for Governor, but Democratic chances in Indiana have gone from slim to none.

 

Maryland

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George's County Executive (incumbent Ben Cardin retiring)

Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win.

Michigan

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin? Debbie Stabenow (incumbent Debbie Stabenow retiring)

Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?
Overview (6/20/23): This one's probably simple. Biden beat Trump by 3% in Michigan in 2020, and the Democrats are likely to field a stronger candidate than the Republicans.
(12/3/23): James Craig is the black former Detroit Chief of Police. The idea that he could cobble together a victory by uniting Michigan Republicans and some of the urban black vote is an intriguing one, but I'll believe it when I see it. Craig tried to run for Governor in 2022, and it went pretty badly. Democrat Elissa Slotkin is running a strong campaign.

Montana

Rating: Toss Up

Democrat: Jon Tester (incumbent)
Republican: Businessman Tim Sheehy
Overview (6/20/23): Republicans are more likely to win this seat than incumbent Jon Tester, but he's defied expectations in the past. In 2012, Tester won 48.6% to Republican Denny Rehberg's 44.9% with the Libertarian candidate taking 6.6%. This happened while Mitt Romney beat Obama by 14% in Montana. Tester pulled off an impressive 50.3% to 46.8% victory in 2018. But I think his luck might be about to run out. Democrats have preformed abysmally in the past couple of elections in the northern plains.
(12/3/23): It looks like Republicans are going with racist, misogynist homophobe and political novice Tim Sheehy. Tester is polling well against Sheehy, but he will need every possible break to win.

Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23) Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice with little fundraising ability as her opponent.

Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23) Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice with little fundraising ability as her opponent.

New Jersey
Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Congressman Andy Kim (likely)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): Incumbent Bob Menendez is going to jail. Although he hasn't said he's for sure not running for another term, it doesn't matter. The New Jersey Republican party is in bad shape and Democrats have little to fear in this race.

Texas
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democrat: Congressman Colin Allred (likely)
Overview (6/20/23): So Trump only carried Texas by 5 points in 2020. If the GOP ticket proves a total disaster in 2024 (Trump running from prison or something), Texas might actually go blue. That could spell trouble for Ted Cruz who only won by 3 points in 2018.
12/3/23: The $13 million Allred has raised sounds impressive until you realize that Cruz has raised $40 million. Democrats should not kid themselves about this one; it will take a miracle to win.

Utah
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: State House Speaker Brad Wilson? (incumbent Mitt Romney retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. The Republican will win.

West Virginia
Rating: Guaranteed Republican pickup
Democrat: ? (incumbent Joe Manchin retiring)
Republican: Governor Jim Justice (likely)
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Republican Jim Justice will win.

Wisconsin

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview (6/20/23): So far no Republican has announced to run against Tammy Baldwin. She's looking like a pretty good bet in Wisconsin, which, after trending red for years has started swinging back a bit towards blue. Janet Protasiewicz's 11 point win in this year's Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a good sign.
Overview (12/3/23): It's still the sound of silence on the Republican side. That's good - the less interested Wisconsin Republicans are in voting in 2024, the more likely Joe Biden wins.

 

Unlikely to be competitive:

Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D). Republicans have had high hopes for Connecticut some years ago. Those hopes wnet nowhere.

Hawai'i: Mazie Hirono (D). Even in Republican-leaning years, the GOP has gotten nowhere in Hawai'i congressional races.

Maine: Angus King (I-Democratic caucus). King is quite popular, and Maine seems to like incumbents. 

Massachusetts (D). The only way Elizabeth Warren is not still a U.S. Senator years from now is if she runs for higher office.

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D). Strong approval ratings protect Klobuchar from vulnerability. Minnesota has bucked the trend in the northern prairie and trended blue.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R). As I noted in a post in 2008, here's how voting works in Mississippi in statewide races: white people vote Republican, black people vote Democratic. The population demographics needed for a serious challenge to Wicker just aren't there.

Missouri: Josh Hawley (R) is a contemptible human being; Missouri doesn't care.

Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) is running for another full term and Pete Ricketts (R) is running in a special to complete the term to which he was appointed. Democrats hope in Nebraska to continue to carry the single electoral vote of the Omaha area (NE-2) and maybe some day win a House seat. But a Senate seat ain't happening.

 

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D) can expect an easy win as New Mexico trends blue.

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Extremely unlikely any Republican will win a statewide race in New York.

North Dakota. Kevin Cramer (R). Does this state even still have a Democratic party?

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. (D). Could become competitive but I'll believe it when I see it.

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Republicans have made serious inroads in a lot of what were considered blue states in the past few years. But not in Rhode Island.

Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) is the perfect representative of the ultra-right-wing politics that have gripped Tennessee.

Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I, Democratic caucus). There is no more popular Senator among his constituents than Bernie.

Virginia: Tim Caine (D). Democrats sometimes receive nasty shocks in Virginia, but with Biden likely to carry the state by double-digits this race is unlikely to be competitive.

Washington: Maria Cantwell (D). Republicans have become far less competitive in statewide races in Washington in recent years, and the blue team did great in 2022. The GOP nominee for this seat doesn't have a prayer.

Wyoming: John Barrasso (R). Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

 

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2022 Election Predictions

US Senate:
Current Senate: 50 D and 50 R 
Prediction: 51 D and 49 R
Democrats to pickup PA.

US House:
Current House: 222 D and 213 R
Prediction: 225 R and 210 D

Governor's Races:
Democrats to pickup: Maryland and Massachusetts

Random observations:
* Assuming that Democrats squeak by the hold the Senate, the biggest story of this election is whether Republicans win a big enough majority in the House to impeach Biden, hold the debt ceiling hostage and have a strong chance of keeping their majority after 2024.

* I'm assuming that in Nevada, Democrats will as usual slightly outperform the polls.

* Republicans have been flooding the landscape with poor-quality, right-leaning polls to make it appear that they have the momentum. The only question is, will those polls accidentally turn out to be right.

 

 

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2020 Election Predictions

Presidential:

Biden to win the popular vote 53% to 46%

US Senate:
Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats.

Prediction: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans (GA-Special to go to run off, Democrats predicted to win)

Democrats to pickup AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME, NC
Republicans to pickup AL

US House:
Democrats to increase their majority by 6 seats.

Gubernatorial:
11 races, all to be won by the incumbent party except Republicans picking up Montana.

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Predictions: 2018 Gubernatorial elections

Final Prediction, 11/4:

Democrats to pickup: Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Republicans: No pickups from Democrats, but Alaska will flip from independent Republican to regular Republican.
* Georgia, currently Republican, will go to a runoff.

In 2018, thirty-six states will hold an election for chief executive. Only nine of these offices are held by Democratic incumbents, as the blue team got clobbered in 2014. The Democrats would especially like to grab the top office in swing states like Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin that are currently dominated by Republicans. Why? Because winning in 2018 means having more say in the decennial redistricting of congressional and state legislative seats in 2021. You see the only reason that Republicans control the US House is because they were able to gerrymander so many states in the last congressional redistricting in 2011. Michigan, for example, elected 9 Republicans and only 5 Democrats to the House in 2012 despite the fact that President Obama beat Mitt Romney there by almost 10%.

The races are categorized as (1.) those that are competitive or at risk of being won by the party out of power (this includes all open-seat races), and (2.) those unlikely to become competitive. This post will be updated continuously until election day.

Competitive/at-risk races:

Alaska
Rating: Likely Republican pickup
Independent: Bill Walker (incumbent)
Republican: Former state Senator Mike Dunleavy (likely)
Democrat: Former Senator Mark Begich
Overview: (12/3/17) In 2014's weirdest election, Republican Bill Walker declared an independent candidacy, formed a "unity" ticket with Democrat Byron Mallot, and narrowly defeated the Republican nominee (with some help from the Constitution and Libertarian candidates, who ate some of the Republicans' lunch). The Walker/Mallot ticket is running again in 2018, but it faces an uphill battle as Walker is unpopular.
(7/17/18) In a surprise move, former Democratic Senator Mark Begich had jumped in. This makes is a tight 3-way race between the independent incumbent and the two major party candidates; long story short it looks like Republican Dunleavy has the best chance of winning.
(8/30/18) Barring some major change in this race, Dunleavy will win.

Arizona
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Doug Ducey (incumbent)
Democrat: Professor David Garcia (likely)
Overview: (12/3/17) Incumbent Doug Ducey is not popular, but top-tier Democrats have so far shown more interest in Arizona's open Senate race.
(7/17/18) A recent poll shows virtually unknown Arizona State Professor David Garcia with a 1-point lead over Doug Ducey. A upset this big is unlikely however; Ducey remains the favorite.
(10/14/18) Ducey is running a strong campaign, Garcia is not.

California
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom (incumbent Jerry Brown term-limited)
Republican: ?
Overview: This contest is listed as competitive only because it's an open-seat race. The Brown administration has been very successful and Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom comes into this election with a lot of wind at his back. Barring a political earthquake, he'll win.

Colorado
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Jared Polis (incumbent John Hickenlooper term-limited)
Republican: State Tresurer Walker Stapleton
Overview: (12/3/17) Everybody wants to be Governor of Colorado: The Democratic primary already has six announced candidates, and the Republicans have seven. Given that the Democrats managed to win this office in the nightmare year of 2014, they have the inside track in 2018 no matter who the candidates are.
(7/17/18) Both parties have likely nominees who are strong candidates for the general election. In what will be a Democratic year, Polis has the edge.
(10/14/18) Polis is comfortably ahead in the polls.

Connecticut
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Former Greenwich Selectman Ned Lamont (likely) (incumbent Dan Malloy term-limited)
Republican: Businessman Bob Stefanowski
Overview: (12/3/17) Dan Malloy has the distinction of being America's least-popular Governor. In a different year, that might be enough to flip this office to Republicans, but the Connecticut GOP has been on life support for a long time.
(7/17/18) Ned Lamont is a long-time popular figure in the Connecticut Democratic party and he has the edge over whomever gets the Republican nomination.
(10/14/18) Rumors of the Republican party's revival in Connecticut have been greatly exaggerated. Lamont is comfortably ahead.

Florida
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Congressman Ron DeSantis (incumbent Rick Scott term-limited)
Democrat: Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum
Overview: (12/3/17) The last two gubernatorial elections in Florida were very close, and I expect this one to be no different.
(7/17/18) Both parties have a lot of candidates; Gwen Graham probably has the edge in winning the Democratic nomination and she has good poll numbers versus the various Republicans.
(8/30/18) Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum came out of pretty much nowhere to win the Democratic nomination. Now the blue team will try to elect a little-known candidate as the state's first black Governor. While that seems like an uphill climb to me, Gillum leads in the first new poll since the primary, and Trump-loving Ron DeSantis has opened the general election season with a racial slur against Gillum. This one will be close.

Georgia
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Lt. Governor Casey Cagle (likely) (incumbent Nathan Deal term-limited)
Democrat: Former state Representative Stacey Abrams
Overview: (12/3/17) Republican Casey Cagle is a known quantity, and as no prominent Democrats appear to be looking at this open-seat race, this one is probably over before it begins.
(7/17/18) Cagle is working hard to blow this one. He took almost 40% of the vote in the Republican primary against only 25% for Secretary of State Brian Kemp, but polls now show the two tied in the runoff election, and things are quite bitter between them - Cagle recently said that Kemp has, "evil in his heart." Polling for the general election shows a very close race, but a Democratic win here would be a shocker.

Illinois
Rating: Likely Democratic pickup
Republican: Bruce Rauner (incumbent)
Democrat: Businessman J.B. Pritzker
Overview: (12/3/17) Unlike several other Republican Governors who managed to win election in blue states in 2014, Bruce Rauner has made no effort to create compromise or govern from the center. His term in office has been a total disaster, and polls show him losing to "generic Democrat" by as much as 15 points. Good riddance.
(7/17/18) Pritzker has a huge lead in the polls and unlimited resources. Game over.

Iowa
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Kim Reynolds (appointed incumbent)
Democrat: Business Fred Hubbell
Overview: (4/20/18) So, the state where I grew up and went to school was all-in for Trump in 2016. Iowa, what happened? Is there any hope? Well, Trump's approval rating is under water by 11% here, that's something I guess. Apparently Kim Reynolds' lead over likely nominee Fred Hubbell is fairly slim. The real question is, how can Iowans possibly be supporting her for election in 2018? An Iowa journalist just won the Pulitzer Prize for his work on Reynolds' disastrous Medicaid privatization. The state is dead-last in GDP growth under all-Republican control. C'mon Iowa, don't sink beneath my already incredibly-low expectations.
(10/14/18) Hubbell leads in what little polling we've seen. Note that the Libertarian candidate is showing substantial support - that's not good for the Republicans.

Kansas
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Secretary of State Kris Kobach (appointed incumbent) (incumbent Sam Brownback resigned)
Democrat: State Senator Laura Kelly
Independent: Businessman Greg Orman
Overview: (12/3/17) It would be difficult to overstate just what a complete wreck Governor Sam Brownback has made of Kansas. Now Brownback is apparently resigning for some phony-baloney job in the Trump administration, meaning Lt. Governor Jeff Coyler will run as an incumbent in 2018. And since it's apparently impossible for the Republicans to lose in Kansas, there you go.
(7/17/18) With Greg Orman mounting a strong independent candidacy, this race should be sort of interesting, but in the end the Republicans will win, just as they always do in Kansas.
(10/14/18) Much to my surprise, insane, disgraced Secretary of State Kris Kobach beat incumbent Governor Coyler by 350 votes (!) in the GOP primary. Polls show this race as a dead head between Kobach and Democrat Laura Kelly, with two independent candidates confusing the situation. Not clear who has momentum; this is a true toss up.

Maine
Rating: Likely Democratic pickup
Republican: Businessman Shawn Moody (incumbent Paul LePage)
Democrat: Attorney General Janet Mills
Overview: (12/3/17) Republican Paul LePage is a walking garbage can of racist craziness. The only reason why he was twice able to win election was due to two ill-advised independent candidacies by attorney Eliot Cutler that split the Democratic vote. While this will probably be a close race, the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track.
(7/17/18) Mills is a huge favorite over the largely unknown Shawn Moody.

Maryland
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Larry Hogan (incumbent)
Democrat: NAACP CEO Ben Jealous
Overview: (12/3/17) One month before the 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election, Democratic nominee Anthony Brown lead Republican Larry Hogan by 17 points in the CBS/NY Times poll. Hogan won any way. Hogan's approval ratings are sky-high. He's one of several Republican Governors in eastern blue states who are curiously popular, and he's a good bet for reelection.
(7/17/18) Ben Jealous pretty much came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nomination; he will now have the privilege of losing to Larry Hogan by 12 points or so.

Massachusetts
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Businessman Charlie Baker (incumbent)
Democrat: Businessman Jay Gonzalez
Overview: Massachusetts has a long tradition of electing moderate Republican Governors to create a balance of power with the Democrats who control everything else. Baker is very popular, and should cruise to reelection.

Michigan
Rating: Leans Democratic Pickup
Republican: Attorney General Bill Schuette (incumbent Rick Snyder term-limited)
Democrat: Former state Senator Gretchen Whitmer
Overview: (12/3/17) The Republicans have a top-tier recruit in Attorney General Bill Schuette, but Schuette comes with the baggage of being part of the scandal-plagued and deeply unpopular Snider administration. Democrats desperately want to win this one, and I like their chances.
(10/14/18) Whitmer's running a great campaign, Schuette's running a terrible one. Whitmer comfortably ahead in the polls.

Minnesota
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Tim Walz (incumbent Mark Dayton retiring)
Republican: County Commissioner Jeff Johnson
Overview: (12/3/17) Republicans captured the Minnesota House and Senate in 2016, and Trump narrowly missed pulling off a shock victory there as well. Democrats wants to reverse the situation before the state goes red like Iowa and Wisconsin. Several top-tier Democrats have announced for this race, whereas the Republican candidates are more second-tier. There's a good chance the blue team can win this race and recapture both houses of the legislature.
(7/17/18) Republicans managed to coax former Governor Tim Pawlenty out of retirement, he will probably make it a close race but still lose to Swanson.
(10/14/18) Polls showed Pawlenty easily winning the GOP primary, but Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson beat him by a big margin. Polls suggest the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor party making a big comeback this year from the drubbing it took in 2016.

Nevada
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Attorney General Adam Laxalt (incumbent Brian Sandoval term-limited)
Democrat: Country Commissioner Steve Sisolak
Overview: (12/3/17) Laxalt is a great recruit for the GOP, and I think this race will be his to lose. Trump is not popular in Nevada, but he isn't showing the kind of unpopularity there that would suggest a huge wave for Democrats.
(10/14/18) Polls show a dead heat; but the Libertarian candidate is polling in the high single-digits and I think Sisolak has a (slight) edge here.

New Hampshire
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Chris Sununu (incumbent)
Democrat: Former state Senator Molly Kelly (likely)
Overview: (12/3/17) There's no polling for this race, but it will likely turn on the size of the Democratic wave: a small wave means Sununu gets another term, a big one sweeps him out.
(10/14/18) Democrats not making much of an effort here. Sununu will win.

New Mexico
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Congressman Steve Pearce (incumbent Susana Martinez term-limited)
Democrat: Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham
Overview: (12/3/17) Outgoing Governor Martinez is deeply unpopular, and although both parties should have top-tier nominees, the prevailing winds favor a Democratic pickup in New Mexico.
(7/17/18) Grisham has a comfortable lead in the polls; this one's probably over.

Ohio
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: State Attorney General Mike DeWine (likely) (incumbent John Kasich term-limited)
Democrat: Former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray
Overview: (7/17/18) Mike DeWine is a political heavyweight and I suspect nothing less than a Democratic tidal wave can keep the Republicans from winning this race. Cordray is a love--or-hate-him candidate as the former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; polls currently show a toss up.

Oklahoma
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Businessman Kevin Stitt (incumbent Mary Fallin term-limited)
Democrat: State Attorney General Drew Edmondson
Overview: (8/30/18) Political nobody Kevin Stitt is the Republican nominee to replace unpopular Governor Mary Fallin. Stitt somewhat surprisingly beat both the Lt. Governor and the former Mayor of Oklahoma City for the nomination; he's probably weaker as a candidate in the general election than either of the guys he beat. Stitt will face the only real heavyweight for the Democratic party in the state, four-term Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Polling suggests a close race.
(10/14/18) The polls show a low ceiling for Edmondson; they're just aren't enough Democrats in Oklahoma. Unless his polling gets better I'm calling this one for the GOP.

Oregon
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Kate Brown (incumbent)
Republican: State Representative Knute Buehler
Overview: (12/3/17) Democrat Kate Brown's polling numbers could be better, but so far no big-name Republican has declared for this race, and as this is deep-blue Oregon I expect Brown to be reelected.
(10/14/18) The polls show a pretty close race but I'm confident Brown will win.

Pennsylvania
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Tom Wolf (incumbent)
Republican: State Senator Scott Wagner
Overview: (12/3/17) One of the only bright spots on election night 2014 was Tom Wolf's narrow pickup of Pennsylvania for the blue team. PA is one of the most gerrymandered states at both the federal and state level, and Democrats very much want to be holding on to this office the next time legislative districts are drawn in 2021. Wolf's approval ratings aren't great, but his chances for reelection are solid.
(7/17/18) Wolf is crushing Wagner in the polls; this one's probably over.
(10/14/18): Republican Wagner to Governor Wolf: "I'm going to stomp all over your face with golf spikes." That's the political quote of the election.

South Dakota
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Congresswoman Kristi Noem (incumbent Dennis Dugaard term-limited)
Democrat: State Senator Billie Sutton
Overview: (10/14/18) Democratic Billie Sutton keeps releasing internal polls showing him slightly ahead of Republican Kristi Noem. Most of the pundits apparently find Sutton's polls unconvincing, although the Cook Political Report has moved this race to "tossup." There's a Libertarian in the mix who should take a few votes from Noem, but I'll need to see more evidence that this race is as close as Sutton claims before I'll believe Democrats have a chance here.

Wisconsin
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Scott Walker (incumbent)
Democrat: State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers?
Overview: (12/3/17) It's chilling to think of Republican Scott Walker actually being elected to a third term in what's expected to be a big year for Democrats, yet the big-name pundits are currently calling this race "lean" or "likely" Republican. Walker currently trails a generic Democratic in polls, and given that his two terms in office have been a total disaster for Wisconsin's economy, its workers, its environment for civil rights and pretty much everything else, you'd think he wouldn't have a prayer of winning another election. Yet when I look at the group of second-tier names seeking the Democratic nomination, I can see Walker winning another term.
(7/17/18) The only recent poll of this race shows Walker leading the most likely Democratic nominee Tony Evers by 4. Evers is a good candidate, still, he'll need every break to beat Walker.

Races unlikely to become competitive:
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Nebraska, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Wyoming have incumbent Republican Governors who are likely to win reelection in 2018.

Hawai'i, New York, and Rhode Island have incumbent Democratic Governors who are likely to win reelection in 2018.

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Predictions: 2018 Senate Races

Final Prediction 11/5:

Current Senate: 51 R and 49 D 
 
Current Prediction: 50 D and 50 R
 Democrats to pick up AZ and NV
Republicans to pickup ND

Overview update: (12/15/17) Democrat Doug Jones won the special election in Alabama for US Senate this week. It would be difficult to overstate the value of this victory for the Democratic party:
* Before the Alabama win, Democrats had virtually no chance of winning control of the Senate next year. Now I'd say they're about even-money.
* Not only has the Republican Senate majority been cut from two seats to one, the shock of losing in deep-red Alabama is having a chilling effect on Republican prospects for next year. We're likely to see more congressional incumbents retire, and likely to see Republicans continue to have recruiting struggles in Democratic Senate seats that were expected to be likely turnovers in 2018, such as Montana and North Dakota.

Overview: (11/25/16). The story of the 2018 Senate races was going to be that of historic gains for the Republican party. Democrats hold 25 of the seats up for election compared to only 8 for the GOP, and the party out of power always does well in the mid-term elections. Of course I expected Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump to become President. So now it's the Democrats who are the party out of power, and, quite possibly, Democratic voters will be more fired up than their Republican opponents in 2018. Of course it may not matter how energized Democrats are, given the increasing effectiveness of Republican voter suppression laws. This may be an election where few if any seats change hands. Retirements will be key.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. This post will be updated continuously until election day.

Likely to be competitive:

Arizona

Rating: Leans Democratic takeover

Republican: US Representative Martha McSally or former state Senator Kelli Ward or former Sheriff Joe Arpaio (incumbent Jeff Flake retiring)

Democrat: US Representative Krysten Sinema (likely)

Overview: (11/25/16) For years now, Democrats have found themselves tantalizingly close to winning statewide elections in Arizona, without actually winning any of them. Jeff Flake's approval rating is only 35% (he doesn't like Donald Trump), making him vulnerable to a challenge from the right. If Flake loses his primary to some right-wing yahoo, the door is open for a competitive race. If Flake is renominated, he's a pretty safe bet for reelection.

(8/12/17) Flake's approval ratings are not just poor, they seem impossibly bad for anyone not a convicted felon. Worse, there is major PAC money backing Flake's primary challenger, former state Senator Kelli Ward. Democrats will counter with popular Congresswoman Krysten Sinema. I like Sinema's chances.

(12/13/17) Flake is out. Republicans have a good candidate in Congresswoman McSally, but first she has to get past uber-crazy Kelli Ward. Among other things, Ward believes in the "chemtrails" conspiracy that condensation left in the sky by airliners are a secret government plot to emit harmful chemicals into the atmosphere. Polls show Democrat Krysten Sinema slightly ahead of both Ward and McSally and I like her chances.
(4/20/18) Sort-of good news for Republicans: former Sheriff and well-known criminal Joe Arpaio has entered the Republican primary. Although Republicans don't particularly want Arpaio grabbing headlines with his special brand of crazy racism, having him in the race makes it much more likely that the party's preferred candidate, Martha McSally, will win the nomination. Despite already burning through most of the money she's raised, McSally however trails Democrat Krysten Sinema in polls.

Florida

Rating: Leans Democratic hold 

Democrat: Bill Nelson (incumbent)

Republican: Governor Rick Scott (likely)

Overview: (11/25/16) Republican Governor Rick Scott is term-limited out of office after 2018, and, having nothing better to do, apparently he'd like to continue ruining the state of Florida by becoming a US Senator. If he runs, Scott would be the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP nomination. His approval ratings are however underwater, so for the time being I like Nelson to win another term.
(12/15/17) Scott may be getting cold feet about running next year after the shock Republican loss in Alabama. Since Scott is the presumptive nominee, if he doesn't run that means that Republicans will start out that much further behind in building momentum in this race.
(4/20/18) Yep, it's Rick Scott. While Scott will certainly make this a tough race, current polling suggests that if Nelson doesn't make any major mistakes, he'll be reelected.
(10/3/18) Scott showed a small lead in most late-summer polls, but his momentum had stalled. Nelson consistently leads in current polls, and Scott's getting no help from the top of the ticket, where Republican nominee Ron DeSantis is trailing Democrat Andrew Gillum.

Indiana

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Joe Donnelly (incumbent)

Republican: US Representative Luke Messer or US Representative Todd Rokita or former state Representative Mike Braun

Overview:  (11/25/16) How the heck did Democrat Joe Donnelly win a Senate seat in Indiana? Well, it seems his opponent, State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, suggested during the campaign that women impregnated by rapists must not have abortions, because their pregnancies are something, "God intended to happen."  Can Donnelly draw another opponent as repellent as Mourdock? I wouldn't count on it, and Indiana is a red state going redder.

(8/12/17) Both of the Indiana Congressmen running for the GOP nomination would be strong candidates against Donnelly, and he'll need every possible break to win this race.
(4/20/18) Current polling suggests a surprise on the Republican side: Mike Braun, a businessman who briefly served in the Indiana House leads both Messer and Rokita for the nomination. This same poll shows Democrat Donnelly ahead -quite comfortably in fact- against both Messer and Rokita, but it failed to poll a Donnelly-Braun matchup. In any case, I had Donnelly pegged as the most-endangered Democratic incumbent but as of today his chances of reelection look pretty good.
(10/3/18) This one will be close but I like Donnelly's chances; he has a small lead in the polls, and, the Libertarian candidate is showing some strength in the polls; usually the Libertarian take votes from the Republicans.

Michigan

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Debbie Stabenow (incumbent)

Republican: Businessman Sandy Pensler (likely)

Overview: Stabenow is running for a fourth term, and has easily defeated past Republican opponents. On the other hand, if Michigan can go for Trump just four years after giving President Obama a 10-point victory over Michigan boy Mitt Romney, anything is possible.
(4/20/18) This race is turning into a non-event. Stabenow has a big lead in the most recent poll against the likely Republican nominee, little-known businessman Sandy Pensler.

Minnesota (special) 

Rating: Likely Democratic hold 

Democrat: Tina Smith (incumbent) (incumbent Al Franken resigning)

Republican:

Overview: (12/13/17): Goodbye, Al Franken. Republicans did very well in in Minnesota in 2016, but no matter how you slice it Democrats have the edge in retaining this seat in next year's special election.

Mississippi-Special

Rating: Leans Republican hold

Republican: Appointed imcumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith or State Senator Chris McDaniel (incumbent Thad Cochran retiring)

Democrat: Former Congressman Mike Espy
Overview (3/19/18): Another big headache for Republicans as Thad Cochran has decided to retire from the Senate 21 months before his term in office ends. There are no party primary elections for this race; on election day in November all candidates will appear on one ballot. If no candidate gets 50% of all the ballots cast (as is likely), there will be a runoff between the top two finishers. The Republican vote will probably be split down the middle between Tea Party darling Chris McDaniel and whomever is chosen by the state's Governor to be Senator for the rest of this year. McDaniel is loathed by the Republican establishment, so sparks are sure to fly. In a runoff, Democrats would prefer to have their top vote-getter face off against McDaniel rather than a less polarizing candidate, but it's hard to be very sanguine about the blue team's chances here. Our best bet would be if several Republicans ran and only two Democrats, then theoretically the two Democrats could face each other in the runoff.
(10/3/18): A recent poll shows McDaniel leading Hyde-Smith by 5 points. If McDaniel catches her and makes it to the runoff against Democrat Espy, the blue team has a chance. If it's an Espy v. Hyde-Smith ruoff, we'll lose.

Missouri

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Claire McCaskill (incumbent)

Republican: State Attorney General Josh Hawley

Overview: (11/25/16) Nobody thought Claire McCaskill had a chance of winning another term in the Senate in 2012. As expected, Mitt Romney beat President Obama by a large margin in Missouri. McCaskill however skillfully helped ensure that the Republican nomination would go to the most extreme candidate in the race, Congressmen Todd Akin. Akin then obliged McCaskill by making some truly birzarre comments on rape and pregnancy, and she beat him by 15% on election day. Well, that was then. McCaskill might get lucky again and face a truly terrible opponent, but I wouldn't count on it.
(4/20/18) Claire McCaskill is getting all the breaks in this race. Her opponent Josh Hawley is seen as running a very lackluster campaign. Worse for Republicans, Governor Eric Greitens has refused to resign despite multiple felony indictments. McCaskill has a tiny lead in the polls.

Montana

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Jon Tester (incumbent)

Republican: Sate Auditor Matt Ronsendale

Libertarian: Rick Breckenridge

Overview: (11/25/16) Tester ran a brilliant campaign in 2012, and won a race that Republicans were counting on. It didn't hurt that the Libertarian candidate ate some of the Republicans' lunch by taking 6.5% of the vote. Tester won't be easy to beat in 2018, but it wouldn't surprise me that much if he lost.
(10/3/18) This is a close race, but Tester has raised far more money and has a small lead in the polls.

Nebraska

Rating: Likely Republican hold

Republican: Deb Fischer (incumbent)

Democrat: Lincoln Councilwoman Jane Raybould (likely)

Overview: (11/25/16) In 2012, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning was expected to win this race, but State Senator Deb Fischer surprised most by winning the Republican nomination. She then proceeded to campaign so badly in her race against former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey that Republicans were forced to inject last-minute campaign funds into a race that should have seen Fischer able to sleepwalk to victory. More recently, she made the brilliant move of calling on Donald Trump to step down from the Presidential nomination after the release of the Billy Bush tape, only to endorse him for President 3 days later. To summarize, it wouldn't surprise me if the inept Fischer were to lose renomination to another Republican. But nothing short of a miracle would make a Democrat competitive in this race.

(12/13/17) Fischer's approval ratings stink. According to a recent poll, Jane Raybould is larger unknown to voters, however, "After being given Democrat Jane Raybould’s background and asked again who they would vote for," Raybould leads: 38% to 35%. That's enough for me to think that this will at least be a close race.

(10/3/18) Raybould has not mounted much of a campaign, Fischer will win.

Nevada

Rating: Leans Democratic pickup

Republican: Dean Heller (incumbent)

Democrat: Congresswoman Jacky Rosen

Overview: (11/25/16) Heller narrowly beat a scandal-tarred opponent in 2012. Nevada is trending blue, and if the Democrats nominate a good candidate, this will be a close race.

(8/12/17) Heller's approval ratings have hit rock-bottom, he's barely leading perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian for renomination in the GOP primary, and he's already trailing Democratic Congresswoman Jacky Rosen in general election polls. At this point I think Rosen will pickup this seat for the blue team.
(4/20/18) Rosen is ahead in the most recent poll.

New Jersey

Rating: Likley Democratic hold

Democrat: Bob Menendez (incumbent)

Republican: ?

Overview: (11/25/16) Menendez is facing federal corruption charges. Whether this actually opens the door for Republicans to win a Senate seat in New Jersey remains to be seen. It's hard to imagine voters turning out in a big way for New Jersey Republicans in 2018 given their loathing of Govenor Chris Christie, and the recent convictions in the Bridgegate scandal.
(4/20/18) The feds have dropped the charges against Menendez. He'll win this race.

New Mexico

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Martin Heinrich (incumbent)

Republican: ?

Overview: Martin Heinrich has decent approval ratings. He also kind of looks like a model. New Mexico is trending blue, and I don't think Democrats have much too much to worry about here.

North Dakota

Rating: Leans Republican Pickup

Democrat: Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent)

Republican: Congressman Kevin Cramer

Overview: (11/25/16) Time was when North Dakota elected liberal Democrats to Congress even as it voted strongly for Republicans at the Presidential level. It looked like those days were over in 2012, however, Heidi Heitkamp miraculously beat her Republican opponent by 3,000 votes even as Mitt Romney beat President Obama by 64,000 votes in North Dakota. This will be a close race, but I think Heitkamp has the popularity to win another term.
(4/20/18) Republicans think they had a winner in the form of the state's only US House member, Kevin Cramer. Cramer, is facing ethics problems as well as the fallout from some nasty public remarks, and I'm not so sure how strong a candidate he is given that he's suggested he'd make Heitkamp's vote against the Trump tax cut the focus of his campaign. The first poll since Cramer jumped in shows Heitkamp with a small lead.
(10/3/18) Unless the polls are wrong, Heitkamp is going to lose. She's raising a lot more money than Cramer, but it seems North Dakota has moved far enough to the right to make Heitkamp the one vulnerable Democrat who can't be helped by the blue wave.

Ohio

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Sherrod Brown (incumbent)

Republican: Congressman Jim Renacc

Overview: (11/25/16) In 2012, Republicans had high hopes that Mitt Romney would carry Ohio, and that "rising star" Republican state Treasurer Scott Mandel would defeat incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown. Neither happened, however, Donald Trump's big win in Ohio in 2016 should give Democrats pause. Brown may be a bit too liberal for increasingly conservative Ohio. But his approval ratings are pretty good, and he has a strong chance to win another term.

(8/12/17) Five years after Brown beat Mandel, Mandel is still Secretary of State in Ohio, and is seeking a rematch. Frustratingly, he's also leading Brown in the polls. President Trump's approval rating in Ohio isn't good, but it's also not bad enough to suggest that Brown should automatically get a boost in this race. This will be a closely fought contest.
(4/20/18) So much for the big Brown-Mandel rematch, Mandel has dropped out. Likely GOP nominee Congressman Jim Renacci trails substantially in a recent poll. I like Brown's chances to win another term.
(10/3/18) Brown is cruising to victory.

Pennsylvania

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent)

Republican: Congressman Lou Barletta

Overview: (11/25/16) Bob Casey has good approval ratings and I like his chances to win another term.
(10/3/18) Easy win for incumbent Casey.

Tennessee

Rating: Leans Democratic takeover

Republican: US Representative Marsha Blackburn (likely) (incumbent Bob Corker retiring). 

Democrat: Former Governor Phil Bredesen

Overview: (12/13/17) Corker is out. This may be the most interest content to watch in 2018. Democrats are rejoicing that former Governor Phil Bredesen, who won nearly 70% of the vote in his 2006 race, has entered this contest. His opponent will likely be the ultra-conservative Marsha Blackburn. In almost any other state, I'd give Bredesen the edge (the first poll of this race shows him with a 2-point lead over Blackburn), but there are a lot of factors that will weigh him down. One, he was Governor during the Great Recession, two, he'll be 74 years old and his last race was a long time ago, three, this is Tennessee where President Trump still holds an approval rating around 50%.
(4/20/18) Recent polling shows Bredesen ahead in this race, and Senator Corker has said pretty nice things about him. If Bredesen can maintain momentum, I see no reason why he can't win.

Texas

Rating: Leans Republican hold

Republican: Ted Cruz (incumbent)

Democrat: US Representative Beto O'Rourke (likely)

Overview: (8/12/17) Hard to believe, but a current poll shows President Trump's approval rating underwater in Texas, and Ted Cruz tied with Congressman Beto O'Rourke in this race. Texas is o-so-slowly trending blue, and some day a Democrat will win a statewide election. Probably not this one, but some day.
(4/20/18) O'Rouke is raising a ton of money, and staying very close to Cruz in the polls. I'm not conceding this race to Cruz yet.

Virginia

Rating: Likely Democratic hold

Democrat: Tim Kaine (incumbent)

Republican: County Board of Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart

Overview: (11/25/16) Even with popular former Governor and Senator Tim Kaine on the Clinton ticket, she barely carried Virginia. Oh well, moving on. While I expect Republicans to mount a serious challenge here, Kaine is a good bet to win another term.
(10/3/18) Forget Republicans mounting a serious challenge, their nominee is white supremacist Corey Stewart.

West Virginia

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Joe Manchin (incumbent)

Republican: State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey

Overview: Joe Manchin is easily the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. Will that be enough to win another term in very conservative West Virginia? His approval ratings suggest it will.
(10/3/18) Somehow, Manchin has a comfortable lead in the polls. It doesn't hurt that the Libertarian and Constitution parties are both in the mix, they tend to take votes from the Republicans.

Wisconsin

Rating: Leans Democratic hold

Democrat: Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)

Republican: State Senator Leah Vukmir

Overview: (11/25/16) I don't know what to say about Wisconsin any more. Barrack Obama carried it easily, now it goes for Trump. Republican Ron Johnson is probably the worst member of the Senate, he has terrible approval ratings, and yet he defeats Democrat Russ Feingold. Republican Governor Scott Walker is a total disaster for the state, yet he easily wins reelection. On paper, liberal Democrat Tammy Baldwin is a good bet for reelection. In reality, given what's happened in Wisconsin in recent elections, who knows?
(4/20/18) Baldwin is polling very well against likely GOP nominee Kevin Nicholson and will probably cruise to victory.
(10/3/18) Baldwin cruising to victory. Let's hope the lack of interest in this race among Republicans will cause them to stay home and not vote for incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott.

Unlikely to be competitive:

California: Dianne Feinstein (D) may not run for reelection (she'll be 85), but California is likely to stay blue.

Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D). Republicans have had high hopes for Connecticut in recent elections; those hopes have gone nowhere.

Delaware: Tom Carper (D) has sky-high approval ratings and is in no danger.

Hawai'i: Mazie Hirono (D). Even in Republican-leaning years, the GOP has gotten nowhere in Hawai'i congressional races.

Maine: Angus King (I-Democratic caucus). King is quite popular, and Maine seems to like incumbents. 

Massachusetts (D). The only way Elizabeth Warren is not still a U.S. Senator years from now is if she runs for higher office.

Maryland: Ben Cardin (D). Maryland is too blue for Republicans to make a go of it here.

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D). Strong approval ratings protect Klobuchar from vulnerability.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R). As I noted in a post in 2008, here's how voting works in Mississippi in statewide races: white people vote Republican, black people vote Democratic. The population demographics needed for a serious challenge to Wicker just aren't there.

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Extremely unlikely any Republican will win a statewide race in New York.

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Republicans have made serious inroads in a lot of what were considered blue states in the past few years. But not in Rhode Island.

Utah: Orrin Hatch (R-retiring). (4/20/18) Normally I put all open seat races in the "competitive" list, but this time I won't bother. Mitt Romney will win this race. He will be an improvement over Orrin Hatch.

Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I, member of the Democratic caucus). There is no more popular Senator among his constituents than Bernie.

Washington: Maria Cantwell (D). Republicans have become far less competitive in statewide races in Washington is the past couple of decades, and with Trump in office, the GOP nominee for this seat doesn't have a prayer.

Wyoming: John Barrasso (R). Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

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