Saturday, November 05, 2022

2022 Election Predictions

US Senate:
Current Senate: 50 D and 50 R 
Prediction: 51 and 49 R
Democrats to pickup PA.

US House:

Current House: 222 D and 213 R
Prediction: 225 R and 210 D

Governor's Races:
Democrats to pickup: Maryland and Massachusetts

Random observations:
* Assuming that Democrats squeak by the hold the Senate, the biggest story of this election is whether Republicans win a big enough majority in the House to impeach Biden, hold the debt ceiling hostage and have a strong chance of keeping their majority after 2024.

* I'm assuming that in Nevada, Democrats will as usual slightly outperform the polls.

* Republicans have been flooding the landscape with poor-quality, right-leaning polls to make it appear that they have the momentum. The only question is, will those polls accidentally turn out to be right.

 

 

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