Friday, January 19, 2024

A Few Links to Dispel Conservative Myths Part Twenty: COVID-19

The pandemic is now endemic. Last week, there were more hospitalizations from Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2 than there were per week during the fall of 2020, a time when vaccination against COVID was not yet available. 

For the past four years, red state Americans have resisted government solutions to prevent the spread of COVID, cope with its effects and vaccinate against it. And, not surprisingly for a group of people known to reject science, red state Americans have and continue to spread lies and misinformation about COVID, with deadly consequences.

A picture is worth a thousand words. This chart, courtesy of ABC News, graphs death rate per capita from COVID versus percent of the population immunized against it from April 2021 through February, 2022. In red states such as Wyoming, Tennessee, West Virginia, where vaccination rates barely exceeded 50%, COVID deaths per capita were more than double that of blue states such as Vermont, Hawaii, and Connecticut where vaccination rates exceeds 75%.















For red-staters, resistance to vaccines followed years of resistance to taking any precautions at all against the spread of COVID. A good place to start is this meme created by a Canadian political activist named Gregory Allen Elliott.


 










Myth: Masking is not effective in preventing the spread of COVID. The Cochrane Review proved it!
Fact: In 2023, a commentary from the Cochrane Library database of health care reviews suggested that when authorities introduced mask mandates, and people largely ignored those mandates and did not mask, then COVID spread rapidly. Well heck, I could have told you that without any data.
Fact: In 2022, the CDC published a study that found that consistently wearing a mask in public reduces the risk of Covid between 56% and 83% depending on the quality of the mask worn. LINK.

Myth: Social distancing is not effective in preventing the spread of COVID.
Fact: A 2020 study showed that countries that implemented social distances policies quickly saw a 65% reduction in new COVID cases.

Myth: The vaccines were "rushed" making them unsafe.
Fact: From Anisa M. Ibrahim, MD: "Although widespread use of mRNA vaccines is new, the technology to make the vaccine has been studied for decades before the pandemic. Scientists also have spent decades studying coronaviruses, like the one that causes COVID-19." "There were no shortcuts. Once they knew what virus was causing the pandemic, it was more straightforward for them to make a vaccine. That's why the COVID-19 vaccine works similarly to other vaccines your child has had. All safety processes were followed and none were rushed."

Myth: Many people have died from the COVID vaccines themselves, possibly more than from the virus. (A poll in 2023 showed that 33% of Americans believe that it is definitely or probably true that, "The COVID-19 vaccines have caused thousands of sudden deaths in otherwise healthy people.")
Fact: There have been no deaths directly caused by the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Three people died in 2021 from blood clots after receiving the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. LINK. These were persons who already had low blood platelet health concerns.

Another set of myths regarding prevention of COVID revolves around things "we were told" that turned out to not be true. But all that's turned out to not be true was that we were ever told these things in the first place. For example, just this week an embittered Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, going off-topic while speaking about his failed campaign for the Republican presidential nomination said:

"They lied to us about the COVID shot. Remember? They said if you take a COVID shot you will not get COVID? How true was that? Not at all. Now, every booster you take you’re more likely to get COVID as a result of it. And they would never talk about any type of side effects. Think about this. Any pharmaceutical that is put on the market when they run these commercials, it’s like the first 30 seconds of the commercial, it’s usually like a married couple, probably like 60 to 65, just walking on the beach, whatever, laughing, having fun, because of this miracle drug, right? And then the next 30 seconds is, like, ‘you could die, heart attack, this, stroke.’ They list all the possible side effects because they're covering their rear ends. But yet when the mRNA shots came out, they said with a very short lead time, ‘Oh, yeah, you know, no problem, you can’t have any questions,’ and that’s just not the way these things go."

A lot of myths here in one oration. Here's a good response to the Governor from blogger Aldous J Pennyfarthing of dailykos:
"Shall we break it down? No one ever said you couldn’t get COVID-19 if you got vaccinated against it. Even early on, health officials acknowledged there would be breakthrough cases. Secondly, the idea that people taking boosters are actually more susceptible to COVID is easily debunked nonsense, much like DeSantis himself. Finally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has always been upfront about side effects, going so far as to pause the administration of the Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine to evaluate a blood-clotting disorder that occurred in just six women who had taken the shot. What we do know for sure is that the vaccines have saved millions of lives worldwide and that taking the jab(s) significantly decreases one’s chance of dying from COVID-19."

There are actually more myths about COVID and its treatments and vaccines than I care to cover, but here are some "best of the rest" examples:

Myth: COVID vaccines contain microchips that allow the vaccinated to be tracked.
Fact: No they don't.

Myth: Ivermectin is an effective treatment for COVID.
Fact: Horse dewormer is not effective to treat COVID, and not healthy for humans.

Myth: Hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment for COVID.
Fact: "In June 2020, the FDA ended the emergency use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for treatment of COVID-19. Over time, clinical trials showed hydroxychloroquine:
1. Led to serious heart problems in some people.
2. Did not effectively treat COVID-19.
3. Did not prevent infection with the virus that causes COVID-19." - The Mayo Clinic

And finally, who can forget:
Myth: President Donald Trump, April, 2020: "So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it's ultraviolet or just a very powerful light — and I think you said that hasn't been checked because of the testing." "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or some other way, and I think you said you're going to test that, too."
"I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."
Fact: "There is some evidence that, in general, viruses on surfaces die more quickly when exposed directly to sunlight." "This is only about infected objects and surfaces - not about what happens once the virus is inside your body." - BBC News
"This notion of injecting or ingesting any type of cleansing product into the body is irresponsible and it’s dangerous." "It’s a common method that people utilize when they want to kill themselves." - Dr. Vin Gupta

Good night, and good luck.



Tuesday, June 20, 2023

2024 US Senate Races

Most recent updates: 12/3/23: All competitive races updated

Current Senate: 51
D and 49 R

Overview: (6/20/23) Though confident for the moment of holding the White House and sanguine about regaining control of the House, the chances for the Democrats to hold the Senate after 2024 are slim. 23 seats currently held by the blue team are up for grabs versus only 11 for the GOP. Furthermore, the Democrats have a number of incumbents running for reelection in red states, while none of the sitting Republicans are in blue states.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. I put all open-seat races on the competitive list. This post will be updated continuously until election day.


Likely to be competitive and open-seat:
 
Arizona
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Independent: Krysten Sinema (incumbent)
Democrat: Congressman Ruben Gallego (likely)
Republican: Former Journalist Kari Lake?
Overview: (6/20/23) The bad news is Krysten Sinema, now an "independent" still caucusing with the Democrats, may run for reelection. Although she has no chance of winning, she might siphon enough votes from Ruben Gallego to hand this race to the GOP. The good news is that Gallego is a great candidate, Arizona is trending blue, and Arizona Republicans are having a hard time coming up with a strong candidate.
(12/3/23): So far it looks like Sinema is running as an independent, and Republicans will get stuck with batshit-crazy former journalist Kari Lake, who still believes she is the Governor of Arizona even though she it not. Polls suggest Lake and Sinema will split the conservative vote, allowing Ruben Gallego to win with a plurality.

California
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Adam Schiff or Congresswoman Katie Porter (likely) (incumbent Laphonza Butler retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: (12/3/23): California has a jungle primary, and it's looking like the runoff could be between two Democrats. That could give a big boost to Democrats in California up and down the ticket.

Delaware
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold
Democrat: Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester  (incumbent tom Carper retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester will win.

Florida
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Rick Scott (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (likely)
Overview 12/3/23: Scott is the overwhelming favorite at this point. There is the chance, however slim, that Florida will swing back to the left a bit. The Republican hegemony in Florida is increasingly unpopular.

Indiana
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Mike Braun retiring and running for Governor)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: Mike Braun (R) is retiring to run for Governor, but Democratic chances in Indiana have gone from slim to none.
 
Maryland
Rating: Guaranteed Democratic hold 
Democrat: Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George's County Executive (incumbent Ben Cardin retiring)
Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win.

Michigan
Rating: Likely Democratic hold 
Democrat: Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin? Debbie Stabenow (incumbent Debbie Stabenow retiring)
Republican: Former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig?
Overview (6/20/23): This one's probably simple. Biden beat Trump by 3% in Michigan in 2020, and the Democrats are likely to field a stronger candidate than the Republicans.
(12/3/23): James Craig is the black former Detroit Chief of Police. The idea that he could cobble together a victory by uniting Michigan Republicans and some of the urban black vote is an intriguing one, but I'll believe it when I see it. Craig tried to run for Governor in 2022, and it went pretty badly. Democrat Elissa Slotkin is running a strong campaign.

Montana
Rating: Toss Up
Democrat: Jon Tester (incumbent)
Republican
: Businessman Tim Sheehy?
Overview (6/20/23): Republicans are more likely to win this seat than incumbent Jon Tester, but he's defied expectations in the past. In 2012, Tester won 48.6% to Republican Denny Rehberg's 44.9% with the Libertarian candidate taking 6.6%. This happened while Mitt Romney beat Obama by 14% in Montana. Tester pulled off an impressive 50.3% to 46.8% victory in 2018. But I think his luck might be about to run out. Democrats have preformed abysmally in the past couple of elections in the northern plains.
(12/3/23): It looks like Republicans are going with racist, misogynist homophobe and political novice Tim Sheehy. Tester is polling well against Sheehy, but he will need every possible break to win.

Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican
: ?
Overview (6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23) Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice with little fundraising ability as her opponent.

Nevada
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Republican
: ?
Overview (6/20/23): Rosen is vulnerable in light-blue Nevada, but so far the Republicans haven't been able to find a top-tier candidate.
(12/3/23) Rosen is benefiting from the fact that big-name Nevada Republicans have declined to join this race. She's likely to face a political novice with little fundraising ability as her opponent.

New Jersey
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Andy Kim (likely)
Republican: ?
Overview (12/3/23): Incumbent Bob Menendez is going to jail. Although he hasn't said he's for sure not running for another term, it doesn't matter. The New Jersey Republican party is in bad shape and Democrats have little to fear in this race.

Texas
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democrat: Congressman Colin Allred (likely)
Overview (6/20/23): So Trump only carried Texas by 5 points in 2020. If the GOP ticket proves a total disaster in 2024 (Trump running from prison or something), Texas might actually go blue. That could spell trouble for Ted Cruz who only won by 3 points in 2018.
12/3/23: The $13 million Allred has raised sounds impressive until you realize that Cruz has raised $40 million. Democrats should not kid themselves about this one; it will take a miracle to win.

Utah
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: State House Speaker Brad Wilson? (incumbent Mitt Romney retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview 12/3/23: This race is competitive in name only. The Republican will win.

West Virginia

Rating: Guaranteed Republican pickup
Democrat: ? (incumbent Joe Manchin retiring)
Republican: Governor Jim Justice (likely)
Overview (12/3/23): This race is competitive in name only. Republican Jim Justice will win.

Wisconsin
Rating: Likely Democratic hold 
Democrat: Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)
Republican
: ?
Overview (6/20/23): So far no Republican has announced to run against Tammy Baldwin. She's looking like a pretty good bet in Wisconsin, which, after trending red for years has started swinging back a bit towards blue. Janet Protasiewicz's 11 point win in this year's Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a good sign.
Overview (12/3/23): It's still the sound of silence on the Republican side. That's good - the less interested Wisconsin Republicans are in voting in 2024, the more likely Joe Biden wins.

 

Unlikely to be competitive:

Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D). Republicans have had high hopes for Connecticut some years ago. Those hopes wnet nowhere.

Hawai'i: Mazie Hirono (D). Even in Republican-leaning years, the GOP has gotten nowhere in Hawai'i congressional races.

Maine: Angus King (I-Democratic caucus). King is quite popular, and Maine seems to like incumbents. 

Massachusetts (D). The only way Elizabeth Warren is not still a U.S. Senator years from now is if she runs for higher office.

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D). Strong approval ratings protect Klobuchar from vulnerability. Minnesota has bucked the trend in the northern prairie and trended blue.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R)As I noted in a post in 2008, here's how voting works in Mississippi in statewide races: white people vote Republican, black people vote Democratic. The population demographics needed for a serious challenge to Wicker just aren't there.

Missouri: Josh Hawley (R) is a contemptible human being; Missouri doesn't care.

Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) is running for another full term and Pete Ricketts (R) is running in a special to complete the term to which he was appointed. Democrats hope in Nebraska to continue to carry the single electoral vote of the Omaha area (NE-2) and maybe some day win a House seat. But a Senate seat ain't happening.
 
New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D) can expect an easy win as New Mexico trends blue.

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Extremely unlikely any Republican will win a statewide race in New York.

North Dakota. Kevin Cramer (R). Does this state even still have a Democratic party?

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. (D). Could become competitive but I'll believe it when I see it.

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Republicans have made serious inroads in a lot of what were considered blue states in the past few years. But not in Rhode Island.

Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) is the perfect representative of the ultra-right-wing politics that have gripped Tennessee.

Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I, Democratic caucus). There is no more popular Senator among his constituents than Bernie.

Virginia: Tim Caine (D). Democrats sometimes receive nasty shocks in Virginia, but with Biden likely to carry the state by double-digits this race is unlikely to be competitive.

Washington: Maria Cantwell (D). Republicans have become far less competitive in statewide races in Washington in recent years, and the blue team did great in 2022. The GOP nominee for this seat doesn't have a prayer.

Wyoming: John Barrasso (R). Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

 


Saturday, November 05, 2022

A Few Links to Dispel Conservative Myths Part Nineteen: Gender Inequality

2022 will long be remembered as the year when American women lost their constitutional right to control their own reproduction. This blog series is overdue to discuss the fight for women's equality, because it's another subject where conservatives believe a lot of things that just ain't so. Diving right in:

Myth: The gender pay gay and the "glass ceiling" do not exist.
From Forbes magazine: "There are many media reports of a gender gap, often claiming that women are paid only about 80% of what men are paid. But that number is comparing the total amount of salary paid to men and to women in this country. It does not take into account such crucial factors as profession, qualifications, type of employer, seniority, hours worked or many other things that go into deciding compensation. When these basic factors are taken into account, the gender pay gap vastly decreases."

Fact
: The Forbes author is partially wrong, and what he says that is not wrong is grossly misleading.

According to the Department of Labor: Women earn less than men in nearly all occupations. There are only a handful of occupations where women earn slightly more than their male counterparts, such as health care social workers. Furthermore, "Women are more likely than men to be employed in professional and related occupations, according to a 2019 BLS report. Within the professional category, however, the proportion of women in higher paying jobs is much smaller than that of men."

And an interesting thing about the Forbes quote. It lists "seniority" as one of the reasons men make more money than women. Well, yes. Time for: Some relevant stats on the glass ceiling: Employers overall promote 8.9% of their employees annually, with an average wage increase of 17.4%. Among them, women tend to receive promotions earlier in their careers than men, with an average of 6.6 years into their working life for women as compared to 7.3 for men. Women also women tend to stay with one company longer than men, and employees are more than 20% more likely to get promoted to management positions from within. However, things start to change as women move up the org chart. There’s a steep drop-off at the fourth level of management, as women only represent 23% of executives. Among the top brass or sixth level, women comprise only 15%.
 
A McKinsey study shows that a "broken rung at the first step up to manager is holding women back. For every 100 men who are promoted from entry-level roles to manager positions, only 87 women are promoted, and only 82 women of color are promoted. As a result, men significantly outnumber women at the manager level, and women can never catch up. There are simply too few women to promote to senior leadership positions."

 
Myth: Women want greater equality with men but reject the responsibilities that would accompany that equality. Examples: The military has lowered its standards for women to get the same jobs as men. Women still expect men to pay for dates.

Fact: The above are things repeatedly said to me on social media. The military has not lowered its  physical standards as it has opened combat jobs to women.

I have a hard time wrapping my head around the "But women want men to pay for dates" thing. First of all, what evidence there is suggests that women who expect a man to pay for a first date are in the minority. Second, even if some women do expect a man to pay for a first date, I don't think that alone justifies the patriarchy in the United States. Call me crazy if you want.