Harris to win the electoral college 325 to 213.
Here's why I'm calling all the swing states for Harris:
** More than one-third of the vote is already in. We know the demographics of which groups are turning out in force and which are not. We also have high-quality exit polls.
** Women are voting far more than men. Even a massive turnout by men on election day is hardly likely to close the gap. Harris leads female voters by 14% while Trump leads by only 6% with men.
** The vote is showing extraordinary crossover support for Harris by registered Republicans. Here's an example:
North Carolina:
Actual early voters: 55% Harris, 43% Trump, 3% others
Early voter party ID: Dem 33%, GOP 34%, Ind 33%
- Assuming virtually Democrats and about 60% of independents are voting for Harris, to get to 55% of the total vote Harris must be getting in excess of 10% of Republicans. PA and WI show similar rates of defection of Republican voters. The rate is even higher in AZ, GA and MI.
** Harris is doing well with the most crucial voting block: seniors. Minorities are not defecting to Trump the way Republicans have hoped. Younger men are not turning out the way Trump needs.
** Harris has outstanding get-out-the-vote operations. Trump's are a disaster.
** Harris has a massive fundraising lead.
** Democrats are way ahead in voter enthusiasm in a key Gallup poll.
** Late-deciders are breaking for Harris.
** And finally, a bombshell poll dropped yesterday: Harris by 3% in Iowa. This is from the highly-respected Selzer organization, who, for example, correctly predicted that Trump would win Iowa by 14% in 2020. If Harris is doing anything like as well as this poll suggests, Democrats will have a good night on Tuesday.
The Senate
Current Senate: 51 D, 49 R
New Senate: 50 D, 50 R
This forecast for the Senate may be overly-optimistic, but here we go.
* The Republicans will pick up West Virginia.
* Jon Tester has survived close contests before in Montana, but I think this one is out of reach. The Republican will probably win. (Or maybe Tester survives but we lose NV or OH).
* I'm calling Texas for Democrat Colin Allred. The polls are within the margin of error, and I expect Harris to lose Texas by only 3 points or so. That's close enough for Allred to knock off Ted Cruz, whom nobody likes.
The House
Current House: 221 R, 214 D
New House: 222 D, 213 R
Gubernatorial
Democrats to pickup North Carolina.
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