2026 Final Election Predictions
US Senate
Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D
2026 Prediction: 53 D, 47 R
Democrats to pickup Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and one of the following: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina.
Notes:
* I'm going with Troy Jackson to flip Maine even though Susan Collins has a history of outperforming the polls. I will not be surprised if Collins wins.
* The final polls show the Democratic candidates leading in both Iowa and Kansas, a tiny edge for the independent candidate opposing the Republican incumbent in Nebraska, and a tie in South Carolina. But given the Republican lean to those states, I'm think the blue team has a strong chance of picking up one of those 4. Winning 2 is not out of the question.
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US House
Current Senate: 220 R, 215 D
2026 Prediction: 233 D, 202 R
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Governor's Races
Democrats to pickup Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Nevada.
Notes: Here I'm playing it a little aggressively for the Democrats.
* Georgia has a dead heat race, but I'm calling this one as a flip to the blue team based on low enthusiasm among Republicans. It looks like Democrat Jon Ossoff might win reelection to the Senate by 10 points or more, and there are only so many Ossoff voters who might vote for the Republican candidate in the gubernatorial race there.
* Kansas has looked all year like it's going to flip to the Republicans. Two high quality polls have just been released. Emerson has the Republican up by 5, while the Washington Post has the Democrat up by 6. So what the heck, I'll call this one a Democratic hold.
* There hasn't been much polling in Nevada and the incumbent Republican has looked tough to beat. But Democratic turnout looks good so far and the only recent quality poll of this race shows the Democrat up by 4.
