Saturday, September 20, 2008

Gubernatorial Races 2008

New Senate race updates 9/20, click here.

Only 11 states hold their election for Governor in the same years as Presidential elections, and only three of those are competitive this year.

Missouri: A pickup for Democrats. State Attorney General Jay Nixon will defeat U.S. Representative Kenny Hulshof to replace retiring Republican Governor Matt Blunt. As a bonus, Democrats also have a good chance of picking up Hulshof's U.S. House seat.

North Carolina: It's a wild time in the Tarheel state, as the Presidential race, gubernatorial race, and the U.S. Senate race are all toss ups. Governor Mike Easley is prohibited from running for a third term, and Lt. Governor Bey Perdue is looking to move up, while the Republicans are running Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Despite the fact that a strong candidacy by Libertarian Michael Munger is siphoning support from McCrory, recent polls give McCrory a slight edge. This race is currently a draw.

Washington: No one in Washington has forgotten the wild race for the Governor's office in 2004, when, after multiple recounts, Christine Gregoire beat Dino Rossi by 129 votes out of more than 2.7 million cast. Gregoire's narrow win was indicative of limited support for her among Democrats and independents in Washington, as John Kerry beat George Bush in the state that year by a comfortable 53.3% to 46.0%.

This year is a rematch, and Gregoire is in trouble. Rossi outspent Gregoire 2-to-1 last month, and recent polls have shown him with a small lead. Today's Seattle Times describes Gregoire's newest tv ad as, "not quite true." Despite Gregoire's lackluster campaign, she does have some advantages. With the Republican party on the defensive everywhere, Democrats can afford to send a big name like Al Gore to the state to raise money and support just before the election. With six weeks to go, the race is a draw.


The Country Doc said...

I'd predict that Gregoire will get a little bump after last night's debate. She clearly out-performed Rossi. The question is, did anyone watch?

M. Joseph Goodfriend said...

A good observation, Doc. I watched it too. Gregoire was sharp, Rossi seemed frustrated and stuttered a lot.