What's bigger than the federal budget? Not much, except maybe Americans' misunderstanding of it. The federal budget deficit is down by about two-thirds since President Obama came into office. Apparently most Americans would be surprised to learn this, if anyone bothered to tell them. According to a recent Bloomberg poll, 73% of Americans believe the deficit has increased in the last six years.
How can this be? I think it boils down to:
1. Republican leaders lie a lot, and their followers aren't exactly big on fact-checking. During the first Presidential debate in 2012, candidate Mitt Romney said the President had "doubled" the deficit.
2. Democrats are a disaster when it comes to talking about their successes. For some strange reason, they've decided that reducing the deficit by two-thirds is not worth mentioning. As John Stoehr of The Hill noted before last fall's election, "But mostly we haven't heard a word about the deficit because the
Republicans are so skilled at controlling the terms of debate. If they
don't say something is a problem, then it isn't a problem. Their mastery
of the narrative is evident in Obama's apparent decision not to broach
the subject for fear of inviting a Republican response, as well as in
the pains Democrats are taking to get as far away from the president as
they can."
3. Americans don't know because they don't care. When only one in five voters under 30 bothers to vote, what more can you say?
Well I care, and I'm going to keep dispelling conservative lies and nonsense. In the first three parts of this series I covered myths regarding Obamacare, climate change and immigration. In this post I'll be covering government taxation, revenue and spending as well as some general economic issues.
Part Four. The Economy and Federal Spending
Myth: The federal deficit has increased under President Obama
Fact: Since the President came into office, the deficit has fallen by 66%, from $1.413 trillion in fiscal year 2009 to $483 billion in 2014.
Myth: The President has dramatically increased federal spending and grown government.
Fact: Federal spending declined during President Obama's first term in office. For the first time in 40 years, the government sector of the American economy shrank during the first three years of a presidential administration (2009-2012). In 2013, the number of federal employees reached a 47-year low.
Myth: Democratic tax and spending policies, also known as demand-side economics or "Keynesianism", have repeatedly been demonstrated to not work. President Franklin Roosevelt's "New Deal" policies of the 1930s actually made the economy worse.
Fact: There's a lot to cover in here, dissecting decades of economic policy, but I'll try to keep it brief.
For most of a century, Democratic administrations have practiced demand-side economics. Demand-side policies, most famously suggested by economist John Maynard Keynes, propose that the public sector use monetary policy and fiscal policy in order to stabilize output over the business cycle. This counter-cyclical budget management mitigates the ebb and flow of economic cycles of glut and recession, and works to create full employment. Demand-side policies function on the idea that when money is injected into the bottom of the economy, that is, among working people and consumers, there is a multiplier effect that generates growth upwards through the economy. This is because an injection of extra income leads to more
spending, which creates more income. For example, extending unemployment benefits and increasing food stamps are among the fastest ways to stimulate economy. A 2008 study concluded that for every dollar spent on the food stamp program $1.73 is generated throughout the economy.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt's "New Deal" brought a demand-side approach to the crisis of the Great Depression in 1933. He raised taxes on businesses, backed legislation to regulate banks and financial markets and hired millions of unemployed Americans to build the country's infrastructure.
America's industrial production fell by half during the four years prior to FDR's inauguration. Non-farm unemployment stood at 37%. America was subject to widespread bank failures and farm foreclosures. During FDR's first two terms in office:
* US industrial production doubled, and GDP rose nearly 100%.
* Non-farm unemployment fell from 37% to 14%.
* Farm foreclosures fell by about 80%.
* Real disposable income nearly doubled, from $5,100 per capita to $9,100.
* Federal Deposit insurance was created in 1934. That year, 4,000 banks had failed before the FDIC went into effect. In the following years, the number that failed was close to zero.
* Among the many federal projects to build the country's infrastructure and improve conservation while putting the unemployed to work was the Works Progress Administration. From wikipedia:
"The WPA built traditional infrastructure of the New Deal such as roads, bridges, schools, courthouses, hospitals, sidewalks, waterworks,
and post-offices, but also constructed museums, swimming pools, parks,
community centers, playgrounds, coliseums, markets, fairgrounds, tennis
courts, zoos, botanical gardens, auditoriums, waterfronts, city halls,
gyms, and university unions. Most of these are still in use today. The
amount of infrastructure projects of the WPA included 40,000 new and
85,000 improved buildings. These new buildings included 5,900 new
schools; 9,300 new auditoriums, gyms, and recreational buildings; 1,000
new libraries; 7,000 new dormitories; and 900 new armories."
Other Democratic administrations have also been successful with demand-side policies. The US saw strong economic growth during the Kennedy-Johnson years, remembered for the "New Frontier" and "Great Society" programs. Kennedy's New Frontier expanded unemployment benefits, aid to cities to improve housing and
transportation, continued development of interstate highways, and passed a water pollution
control act and
an agricultural act to raise farmers’ incomes. It also passed a number of anti-poverty acts including increases in social security benefits and in the
minimum wage, several housing bills, and aid to economically distressed
areas along with expansions in rural
electrification, soil conservation, crop insurance and farm credit. In the 1990s the Clinton administration inherited an economy in recession and a record $293 billion budget deficit. Clinton increased taxes on high incomes and invested in infrastructure, leading to sustained economic growth and job creation, and, by the time Clinton left office, a balanced federal budget.
For a current lesson on demand-side economics as compared to conservative supply-side policies, compare California to Kansas. In Kansas, Republican Governor Sam Brownback decided to embark on an "experiment," cutting taxes on businesses and high incomes, slashing spending on
education, social services and the arts, and privatizing the
entire state Medicaid system. From Mark Benelli of Rolling Stone:
"Brownback himself went around the country
telling anyone who'd listen that Kansas could be seen as a sort of test
case, in which unfettered libertarian economic policy could be held up
and compared right alongside the socialistic overreach of the Obama
administration, and may the best theory of government win. "We'll see
how it works," he bragged on Morning Joe in 2012. "We'll have a real live experiment."
That word, "experiment," has come to haunt Brownback as
the data rolls in. The governor promised his "pro-growth tax policy"
would act "like a shot of adrenaline in the heart of the Kansas
economy," but, instead, state revenues plummeted by nearly $700 million
in a single fiscal year, both Moody's and Standard & Poor's; Poor's
downgraded the state's credit rating, and job growth sagged behind all
four of Kansas' neighbors."
Contrast this with the administration of Governor Jerry Brown of California. In 2009, California had a $42 billion budget deficit. The Brown administration raised taxes on high incomes and rolled back some corporate tax breaks, while dedicating new revenue to education and public safety. By 2013, California had a balanced budget. The unemployment rate there fell from 12.4% in the fall of 2010 to 7.3% in the fall of 2014.
Myth: Tax cuts will pay for themselves, because they stimulate the economy.
Fact: This myth is what Governor Brownback of Kansas was touting when he cooked up the his great "experiment" described above: lower taxes would encourage more investment, so that even as tax rates fall, total tax revenue increases. Known as supply-side or "trickle-down" this conservative economic theory has repeatedly been proven false. In 2012, the Congressional Research Service published a study analyzing the economics of tax rates since 1945. As discussed by Derek Thompson of The Atlantic:
"Analysis of six decades of data found that top tax
rates "have had little association with saving, investment, or
productivity growth." However, the study found that reductions of
capital gains taxes and top marginal rate taxes have led to greater
income inequality. Past studies cited in the report have suggested that a
broad-based tax
rate reduction can have "a small to modest, positive effect on economic
growth" or "no effect on economic growth."
Well into the 1950s,
the top marginal tax rate was above 90%. Today it's 35%. But both real
GDP and real per capita GDP were growing more than twice as fast in the
1950s as in the 2000s. At the same time, the average tax rate paid by
the top tenth of a percent fell from about 50% to 25% in the last 60
years, while their share of income increased
from 4.2% in 1945 to 12.3% before the recession."
Other studies have reached similar conclusions. In 2010, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office analyzed the short-term effects of 11 policy options and found that extending the tax cuts would be the least effective way to spur the economy and reduce unemployment. In 2014, a Dartmouth College study also concluded that individual tax reform does not create significant economic growth.
Myth: Federal revenue grew after the 1981 Reagan tax cuts, demonstrating the validity of trickle-down economic theory.
Fact: Federal revenue as a percentage of GDP rose under President Carter, reaching 21% in 1981. Under Reagan federal revenue as a percentage of GDP fell substantially, and did not reach 21% again until the Clinton years.
Myth: The Republican party is the more pro-business, pro-growth party.
Fact: The economy has consistently performed better under Democratic administrations rather than Republican in both GDP growth and job creation.
Myth: The 2009 Troubled Asset Relief Program bailout of banks and automakers was a disaster. The government lost a great deal
of money on it. The auto industry did not need federal bailout money.
Fact: The government bailout of bankrupt General Motors and Chrysler saved 2.6 million jobs and $284.4 billion in personal income. Regarding the bailout of the financial industry, Jonathan Yip of the Harvard Political Review said, "TARP was a hastily executed effort of unprecedented size to rescue
the US financial system from collapse. In that regard, TARP succeeded;
without the immense government intervention, the recession would have
been deeper, longer-lasting, and far more serious."
The TARP program returned a $15.3 billion profit to the taxpayers. General Motors could not, as suggested by Mitt Romney, have found private sector refinancing.
Myth: President Obama's 2009 economic stimulus plan didn't work.
Fact: A 2012 survey of economists showed widespread agreement among economists that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 lowered unemployment and brought net economic benefit to the country. Subsequent studies have shown this agreement as nearly universal among experts. In terms of specifics, the Congressional Budget Office, for example, said the stimulus boosted real GDP in the second quarter of 2010 alone by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent, adding at least $200 billion in economic activity.
Myth: President Obama promised that unemployment would not go above 8% if the Stimulus was passed.
Fact: In early January 2009, the President's economic team released a report noting that unemployment was projected to hit about 8.5% in 2009 and then
continue rising to a peak of about 9% in 2010. With the
stimulus, they predicted the unemployment rate would peak at just under
8% in 2009.
When the report was released, unemployment stood at 7.1%. By the first full month of Obama's Presidency, February 2009, the same month the Stimulus was passed, unemployment stood at 8.9%, already above the much-discussed 8% threshold. As previously noted, the Stimulus lowered unemployment as designed.
Myth: Lower unemployment statistics are a fraud. Unemployment only appears to be going down because (I.) more workers have stopped looking for work and thus are no longer counted as unemployed or (II.) more workers are accepting part-time work even though they want full-time work.
Fact:
I. Go to this page, check "Discouraged workers" and get the results:
"Includes those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks
for reasons such as thinks no work available, could not find work, lacks
schooling or training, employer thinks too young or old, and other
types of discrimination."
And the results are, in thousands:
9/2010: 1,209.
9/2012: 802.
9/2014: 698.
In other words, a 42% drop in the number of "discouraged workers" over a four-year period.
II. The percentage of jobs that are full-time rather than part-time is rising.
Myth: The United States taxes corporations at a rate higher than other leading industrialized nations.
Fact: While the Federal corporate tax rate of 35% appears high when compared to other nations, U.S. corporations pay an average effective tax rate of 12.6%. U.S. corporate tax collection totaled 2.6% of GDP in 2011, according to
the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That was the
eleventh lowest in a ranking of 27 wealthy nations. Many of America's largest and most profitable corporations pay no income tax at all. General Electric, for example, made $5 billion in profits in the US in 2010 and another $9 billion worldwide while paying no US income taxes.
Myth: President Obama is responsible for the unpopular "sequester" of government spending.
Fact: The 2011 Budget Control Act specified that the federal government would make automatic spending cuts in 2013 if a bipartisan congressional group failed to reach a larger resolution to reduce the federal deficit. In early 2013, Republicans widely embraced the sequester cuts. Then they quickly flip-flopped and blamed the President for the cuts when the sequester proved unpopular with the public. Turns out those spending cuts would mean the loss of jobs, and, among other things, longer security lines at airports. Eventually, House Republican leaders Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan admitted that they were in fact responsible for derailing a "Grand Bargain" with President Obama over the federal budget, resulting in the sequestration cuts.
Myth: President Obama is an enemy of the oil industry.
Fact: In 2013, the US became the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas. That same year, the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management (BLM) held 30
separate oil and gas lease sales, offering 5.7 million acres for lease
by industry, the most in a decade. It also opened up of an additional 59 million acres for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the site of a disastrous BP oil spill in April 2010.
Myth: The taxpayers lost money on President Obama's renewable-energy loan program.
Fact: The U.S. government expects to earn $5 billion to $6 billion from the program, supporting the President's goal of backing low-carbon technologies.
So, four posts on conservative myths and I still haven't touched minimum wage, welfare and a lot of other things. I'll try to wrap it all up next time. Good night, and good luck.
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Friday, November 07, 2014
A Few Links to Dispel Conservative Myths Part Three: Immigration
Four centuries ago, the first European colonists landed in North America. It took about five minutes for them to decide to start excluding other would-be immigrants from joining them. Catholics, Jews, Muslims, anyone not from northern Europe, no matter whom you are, at some point we've managed to come up with one reason or another why you shouldn't join us in the great melting pot of the USA.
And it doesn't look like hostility towards immigrants is going to wane any time soon. On the contrary, American conservatives are fighting any and all immigration with as much fervor as ever. Why? Because the Republican party has shown that it has no interest in trying to appeal to the interests of anyone except people who are non-Hispanic whites who practice Christianity. And those aren't the people who are going to make up America's potential immigrant population. The Republican party has enough problems with the fact that America is becoming less white and less Christian; it doesn't need any more of those same folks coming here.
I'll let a Republican explain the situation in his own words. Drew Turiano was a candidate for US House in this year's Republican primary in Montana. Mr. Turiano proposes a moratorium on all immigration because,
"Virtually all of the millions of illegal and legal immigrants who are coming into America and have come into America for decades are big-government people. They have only supported the party of big government – the Democrats. There is no evidence that most immigrants will support the party of small government today or in the future – the Republican Party."
"There is no good reason for any immigrant to support us in the GOP or tea party. They will always align themselves with the party that will give them free education, free health care, free housing, free welfare, free whatever."
So, "there is no good reason for any immigrant to support us in the GOP or tea party"? Hey, no argument here buddy. Consider though, that this means that either (1) Republicans are so bigoted that they believe that immigrants are too stupid to ever understand how voting Republican is in their interests, or (2) Republicans are aware that their message sucks.
Of course the 12 million undocumented immigrants already in the US represent an even bigger problem for Republicans. Americans overwhelmingly support immigration reform that would allow illegal immigrants an eventual path to citizenship. Even Fox News has discovered this. According to their June, 2013 poll, "74 percent (of voters) favor finding a way for the 11 million illegal immigrants already in the country to remain -- and eventually become citizens." And in 2013 -astoundingly- the Senate responded, passing a comprehensive immigration reform bill, with 14 Republicans voting in support. Alas, the House refused to take up the bill, with Speaker John Boehner saying, "We’ll do our own bill, through regular order and it’ll be a bill that reflects the will of our majority and the people we represent." That of course was a lie; the House did not pass an immigration reform bill.
It's also interesting that Boehner made it clear that the House the would pass a bill, "that reflects the will of our majority and the people we represent." In other words not the will of the three-quarters of the American people who want to see immigration reform implemented. And why would the House refuse to take up a reform that most people favor? Fortunately, we have Republican Congress Steve Stockman to un-muddy the waters for us. From Matter Fuller of Roll Call:
""That’s a non-starter," Stockman said, "because they’re asking the Republicans to put a rope around their neck and hang themselves."
When President Ronald Reagan gave amnesty to some 3 million people in the country illegally in 1986, Stockman said, the Republican Party lost control of the state of California, because the newly minted Americans went on to vote for Democrats, who they saw as more supportive of their plight.
There is a "direct correlation" between amnesty for illegal aliens and an increase in Democrat voters.""
Interestingly, the Republican party is showing no hesitation to sacrifice long-term appeal for short-term gain. Never mind that that the party's actions are making their tent smaller and smaller, the Republicans in power today were put there by people totally hostile to immigration reform. Or as of Fernando Espuelas of The Hill put it,
"Politically, the GOP is like a man standing on quicksand. After killing immigration reform in Boehner's House of Representatives, voting to deport the Dreamers and urging the faster deportation of the border kids, the party's chances of attracting a sizable percentage of Latino voters needed to win national elections recedes with every acrid declaration by Republican politicos seeking to court the far-right midterm election voters they need to win the Senate in November."And of course all of the above only covers the election-related reasons why conservatives hate and fear immigrants. I haven't even touched on the traditional reasons; those based on the prejudice that immigrants cannot be assimilated and, if allowed they are allowed to stay here they will transform our country out of recognition. John Gibson of Fox News, for example, had repeatedly expressed his fear that Muslims will be allowed into America in significant numbers, and force Americans to comply with the religious laws of Islam.
But enough with the motivations, let's get to:
Part Three. Immigration Myths
Myth: America's southern border is being flooded with illegal immigrants.
Fact: There is no net immigration to the United States from Mexico. Immigration from Mexico to the United States has fallen from nearly 700,000 in 2005 to only 140,000 in 2010.
Myth: The Obama administration has a lax attitude towards deporting illegal immigrants.
Fact: The Obama administration has deported more illegal immigrants than any previous administration. Between 2009 and 2013, it deported more than 2 million persons - more than President George W. Bush did in eight years in office.
Myth: In 2014, America experienced an immigration crisis in which more than 50,000 children from Central American attempted to enter the United States illegally. President Obama deliberately encouraged them to do so.
Fact: Obama expressly warned Central American families not to send their children across the border. Furthermore, persons presenting themselves at the border and seeking refugee status are not "illegal immigrants." What encouraged Central American families to send their children north? US law. Unaccompanied minors fall under the William Wilberforce Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2008, which passed the House and Senate unanimously and was signed into law by President George W. Bush. As Amy Campoy of the Wall Street Journal explained last month, those children, "who say they are scared to go back to their home country are screened to determine if they have "credible fear" of persecution or torture. In July, the most recent month available, 63% of those who claimed they were afraid to return were found to have met that criterion, down from 83% six months earlier, according to a report released to immigrant-rights groups by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services." Those granted asylum are released to family members in this country.
Myth: Illegal immigration is a huge cost to American taxpayers.
Fact: From the Hill: "An open letter to President George W. Bush in 2006, signed by around five hundred economists (including five Nobel laureates) stated the following: "While a small percentage of native-born Americans may be harmed by immigration, vastly more Americans benefit from the contributions that immigrants make to our economy, including lower consumer prices.""
From Policy.Mic: "Undocumented immigrants pay taxes every time they buy gas, clothes, or new appliances. They also contribute to property taxes — a main source of school funding — when they buy or rent a house or apartment. In addition, the Social Security Administration estimates that half to three-quarters of undocumented immigrants pay federal, state, and local taxes, including $6 billion to $7 billion in Social Security taxes for benefits they will never get using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number issued to them by the IRS. They can receive schooling and emergency medical care, but not welfare or food stamps as they lack the documents needed for those benefits."
Undocumented workers contribute about $13 billion per year to the Social Security Trust Fund, and only get back a small fraction.
Myth: Illegal immigrants increase violent crime.
Fact: Policy.Mic: "Nationally, since 1994, the violent crime rate has declined 34% and the property crime rate has fallen 26%, even as the number of undocumented immigrants has doubled. According to the conservative Americas Majority Foundation, crime rates during the period 1999–2006 were lowest in states with the highest immigration growth rates. During that period the total crime rate fell 14% in the 19 top immigration states, compared to only 7% in the other 31. Truth is, foreign-born people in America — whether they are naturalized citizens, permanent residents, or undocumented — are incarcerated at a much lower rate than native-born Americans, according to the National Institute of Corrections."
Myth: "The current practice of extending U.S. citizenship to hundreds of thousands of 'anchor babies' must end because it creates a magnet for illegal immigration into our country." - insane Congressman Steve King (R) of Iowa
Fact: The birth of a child in North America does not guarantee the child nor their parents the right to live in the United States. In the decade that ended with President Obama's first term in office, more than 100,000 parents of U.S.-born children were deported.
Myth: Illegal immigrants take jobs from Americans.
Fact: Studies overwhelmingly indicate that immigrants and American-born workers do not compete for the same jobs.
Myth: "Reports of illegal migrants carrying deadly diseases such as swine flu, dengue fever, Ebola virus and tuberculosis are particularly concerning. Many of the children who are coming across the border also lack basic vaccinations such as those to prevent chicken pox or measles." - Congressman Phil Gingrey (R) of Georgia
Fact: Ebola has never been reported in Latin America. And ironically, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Mexico – the four countries sending the largest numbers of unaccompanied minors to the US, all have higher measles vaccination rates than the US.
Myth: "The majority of the people that are coming to Arizona and trespassing are now becoming drug mules." - Arizona Governor Jan Brewer
Regarding undocumented immigrants brought to the US as young children, "For every one who's a valedictorian, there's another 100 out there who weighs 130 pounds — and they've got calves the size of cantaloupes because they're hauling 75 pounds of marijuana across the desert." - insane Congressman Steve King (R) of Iowa
(Do I really have to address this one? How do these people get elected?)
Fact: Illegal immigrants are rarely involved in drug trafficking. From Politifact: "Prosecutions stemming from immigrations and customs activities by the Department of Homeland Security...show that "immigration" charges accounted for almost 89 percent of cases, while drug and drug-trafficking charges accounted for just over 5 percent."
And it doesn't look like hostility towards immigrants is going to wane any time soon. On the contrary, American conservatives are fighting any and all immigration with as much fervor as ever. Why? Because the Republican party has shown that it has no interest in trying to appeal to the interests of anyone except people who are non-Hispanic whites who practice Christianity. And those aren't the people who are going to make up America's potential immigrant population. The Republican party has enough problems with the fact that America is becoming less white and less Christian; it doesn't need any more of those same folks coming here.
I'll let a Republican explain the situation in his own words. Drew Turiano was a candidate for US House in this year's Republican primary in Montana. Mr. Turiano proposes a moratorium on all immigration because,
"Virtually all of the millions of illegal and legal immigrants who are coming into America and have come into America for decades are big-government people. They have only supported the party of big government – the Democrats. There is no evidence that most immigrants will support the party of small government today or in the future – the Republican Party."
"There is no good reason for any immigrant to support us in the GOP or tea party. They will always align themselves with the party that will give them free education, free health care, free housing, free welfare, free whatever."
So, "there is no good reason for any immigrant to support us in the GOP or tea party"? Hey, no argument here buddy. Consider though, that this means that either (1) Republicans are so bigoted that they believe that immigrants are too stupid to ever understand how voting Republican is in their interests, or (2) Republicans are aware that their message sucks.
Of course the 12 million undocumented immigrants already in the US represent an even bigger problem for Republicans. Americans overwhelmingly support immigration reform that would allow illegal immigrants an eventual path to citizenship. Even Fox News has discovered this. According to their June, 2013 poll, "74 percent (of voters) favor finding a way for the 11 million illegal immigrants already in the country to remain -- and eventually become citizens." And in 2013 -astoundingly- the Senate responded, passing a comprehensive immigration reform bill, with 14 Republicans voting in support. Alas, the House refused to take up the bill, with Speaker John Boehner saying, "We’ll do our own bill, through regular order and it’ll be a bill that reflects the will of our majority and the people we represent." That of course was a lie; the House did not pass an immigration reform bill.
It's also interesting that Boehner made it clear that the House the would pass a bill, "that reflects the will of our majority and the people we represent." In other words not the will of the three-quarters of the American people who want to see immigration reform implemented. And why would the House refuse to take up a reform that most people favor? Fortunately, we have Republican Congress Steve Stockman to un-muddy the waters for us. From Matter Fuller of Roll Call:
""That’s a non-starter," Stockman said, "because they’re asking the Republicans to put a rope around their neck and hang themselves."
When President Ronald Reagan gave amnesty to some 3 million people in the country illegally in 1986, Stockman said, the Republican Party lost control of the state of California, because the newly minted Americans went on to vote for Democrats, who they saw as more supportive of their plight.
There is a "direct correlation" between amnesty for illegal aliens and an increase in Democrat voters.""
Interestingly, the Republican party is showing no hesitation to sacrifice long-term appeal for short-term gain. Never mind that that the party's actions are making their tent smaller and smaller, the Republicans in power today were put there by people totally hostile to immigration reform. Or as of Fernando Espuelas of The Hill put it,
"Politically, the GOP is like a man standing on quicksand. After killing immigration reform in Boehner's House of Representatives, voting to deport the Dreamers and urging the faster deportation of the border kids, the party's chances of attracting a sizable percentage of Latino voters needed to win national elections recedes with every acrid declaration by Republican politicos seeking to court the far-right midterm election voters they need to win the Senate in November."And of course all of the above only covers the election-related reasons why conservatives hate and fear immigrants. I haven't even touched on the traditional reasons; those based on the prejudice that immigrants cannot be assimilated and, if allowed they are allowed to stay here they will transform our country out of recognition. John Gibson of Fox News, for example, had repeatedly expressed his fear that Muslims will be allowed into America in significant numbers, and force Americans to comply with the religious laws of Islam.
But enough with the motivations, let's get to:
Part Three. Immigration Myths
Myth: America's southern border is being flooded with illegal immigrants.
Fact: There is no net immigration to the United States from Mexico. Immigration from Mexico to the United States has fallen from nearly 700,000 in 2005 to only 140,000 in 2010.
Myth: The Obama administration has a lax attitude towards deporting illegal immigrants.
Fact: The Obama administration has deported more illegal immigrants than any previous administration. Between 2009 and 2013, it deported more than 2 million persons - more than President George W. Bush did in eight years in office.
Myth: In 2014, America experienced an immigration crisis in which more than 50,000 children from Central American attempted to enter the United States illegally. President Obama deliberately encouraged them to do so.
Fact: Obama expressly warned Central American families not to send their children across the border. Furthermore, persons presenting themselves at the border and seeking refugee status are not "illegal immigrants." What encouraged Central American families to send their children north? US law. Unaccompanied minors fall under the William Wilberforce Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2008, which passed the House and Senate unanimously and was signed into law by President George W. Bush. As Amy Campoy of the Wall Street Journal explained last month, those children, "who say they are scared to go back to their home country are screened to determine if they have "credible fear" of persecution or torture. In July, the most recent month available, 63% of those who claimed they were afraid to return were found to have met that criterion, down from 83% six months earlier, according to a report released to immigrant-rights groups by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services." Those granted asylum are released to family members in this country.
Myth: Illegal immigration is a huge cost to American taxpayers.
Fact: From the Hill: "An open letter to President George W. Bush in 2006, signed by around five hundred economists (including five Nobel laureates) stated the following: "While a small percentage of native-born Americans may be harmed by immigration, vastly more Americans benefit from the contributions that immigrants make to our economy, including lower consumer prices.""
From Policy.Mic: "Undocumented immigrants pay taxes every time they buy gas, clothes, or new appliances. They also contribute to property taxes — a main source of school funding — when they buy or rent a house or apartment. In addition, the Social Security Administration estimates that half to three-quarters of undocumented immigrants pay federal, state, and local taxes, including $6 billion to $7 billion in Social Security taxes for benefits they will never get using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number issued to them by the IRS. They can receive schooling and emergency medical care, but not welfare or food stamps as they lack the documents needed for those benefits."
Undocumented workers contribute about $13 billion per year to the Social Security Trust Fund, and only get back a small fraction.
Myth: Illegal immigrants increase violent crime.
Fact: Policy.Mic: "Nationally, since 1994, the violent crime rate has declined 34% and the property crime rate has fallen 26%, even as the number of undocumented immigrants has doubled. According to the conservative Americas Majority Foundation, crime rates during the period 1999–2006 were lowest in states with the highest immigration growth rates. During that period the total crime rate fell 14% in the 19 top immigration states, compared to only 7% in the other 31. Truth is, foreign-born people in America — whether they are naturalized citizens, permanent residents, or undocumented — are incarcerated at a much lower rate than native-born Americans, according to the National Institute of Corrections."
Myth: "The current practice of extending U.S. citizenship to hundreds of thousands of 'anchor babies' must end because it creates a magnet for illegal immigration into our country." - insane Congressman Steve King (R) of Iowa
Fact: The birth of a child in North America does not guarantee the child nor their parents the right to live in the United States. In the decade that ended with President Obama's first term in office, more than 100,000 parents of U.S.-born children were deported.
Myth: Illegal immigrants take jobs from Americans.
Fact: Studies overwhelmingly indicate that immigrants and American-born workers do not compete for the same jobs.
Myth: "Reports of illegal migrants carrying deadly diseases such as swine flu, dengue fever, Ebola virus and tuberculosis are particularly concerning. Many of the children who are coming across the border also lack basic vaccinations such as those to prevent chicken pox or measles." - Congressman Phil Gingrey (R) of Georgia
Fact: Ebola has never been reported in Latin America. And ironically, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Mexico – the four countries sending the largest numbers of unaccompanied minors to the US, all have higher measles vaccination rates than the US.
Myth: "The majority of the people that are coming to Arizona and trespassing are now becoming drug mules." - Arizona Governor Jan Brewer
Regarding undocumented immigrants brought to the US as young children, "For every one who's a valedictorian, there's another 100 out there who weighs 130 pounds — and they've got calves the size of cantaloupes because they're hauling 75 pounds of marijuana across the desert." - insane Congressman Steve King (R) of Iowa
(Do I really have to address this one? How do these people get elected?)
Fact: Illegal immigrants are rarely involved in drug trafficking. From Politifact: "Prosecutions stemming from immigrations and customs activities by the Department of Homeland Security...show that "immigration" charges accounted for almost 89 percent of cases, while drug and drug-trafficking charges accounted for just over 5 percent."
"The lesson of these 236 years is clear –
immigration makes America stronger. Immigration makes us more
prosperous. And immigration positions America to lead in the 21st
century."- President Obama, July 4, 2012
Monday, November 03, 2014
2014 Election Predictions
US SENATE
Current Senate: 55 D, 45 R
Current Senate: 55 D, 45 R
Prediction*: 52 R, 47 D, 1 independent
Independent to win KS.
*Democrats shouldn't lose hope before all the results are in.
FACT: Democratic Senate candidates beat the polls by 3.7% in 2010 and 2.7% in 2012. If Democrats outperform the polls this year by 2% or more, they are likely to carry Alaska, Colorado and Iowa and are about even money to carry Georgia as well.
US HOUSE
Current House: 201 D, 234 R, 201 D
Prediction: GOP+7: 241 R, 194 D
GUBERNATORIAL
Democrats to pickup Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Republicans to pickup Arkansas and Massachusetts.
Independent to win Alaska.
That's all folks. Thanks for reading. Joe
Republicans to pickup Arkansas and Massachusetts.
Independent to win Alaska.
That's all folks. Thanks for reading. Joe
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