I think Republicans are likely to flip both the House and Senate in 2022; the party out of power usually does well in midterm elections. Add to that the fact that in most states Republicans will control House redistricting and will be able to stitch things up to their advantage.
On the other hand, it's just possible that Republicans will be too busy strangling each other to focus on anything else. Former President Donald Trump could be easing into retirement right now (and working on his legal defense for the many indictments he will soon be facing). But of course that's just wouldn't be Donald Trump. From Gabby Orr and Meridith McGraw of Politico.com:
"According to three people familiar
with the planning, Trump will soon begin vetting candidates at
Mar-a-Lago who are eager to fulfill his promise to exact vengeance upon
incumbent Republicans who’ve scorned him, and to ensure every open GOP
seat in the 2022 midterms has a MAGA-approved contender vying for it."
"Trump already has received dozens of requests from prospective candidates seeking to introduce themselves and nab his endorsement, and formal meetings with them could begin as early as March. Now that Trump has survived his second Senate impeachment trial, he has shifted his focus to post-presidential activism — a venture mostly bankrolled by his new leadership PAC, Save America, which had $31 million in its coffers at the start of this month."
"And on Saturday, Trump is expected to
make an appearance at a fundraising dinner for Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) at
Mar-a-Lago with guests including MAGA firebrands Rep. Matt Gaetz
(R-Fla.) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) according to an invitation."
"Others in Trump’s orbit have encouraged him to wait and see if
Republicans who’ve crossed him and are up for reelection next fall, such
as Govs. Mike DeWine of Ohio and Brian Kemp of Georgia, attempt a peace
offering before he launches a serious search for possible primary
challengers."
In other words, thanks to Trump a lot of elected Republicans might be facing expensive, embarrassing primary challenges from members of their own party. Worse, Trump will be helping the GOP become increasingly identified with batshit-crazy people like Congresswomen Lauren Boebert, a person who endorses the "QAnon" conspiracy theory that a powerful cabal in Washington DC, which includes Bill and Hillary Clinton, is sodomizing children in
secret underground tunnels while drinking blood as part of satanic ritual sacrifices.
One race I'm particularly enthused about in terms of Trump's meddling is the 2022 open-seat Senate contest in Pennsylvania. Former congressman Ryan Costello, a moderate Republican, is eyeing the seat. But team Trump of course want to derail Costello's candidacy, because Costello has criticized Trump. Winning this race might mean keeping control of the Senate for Democrats, so it's good news for them if team Trump manages to keep conservative voters from uniting against a strong, moderate candidate, and even better news if they can somehow beat Costello in the GOP primary and nominate a pro-Trump nut who cannot win the election.
But the GOP has more to worry about than just primary election battles: If Donald Trump is determined to make the Republican party all "MAGA" all the time, some Republicans would prefer to split off into a third-party. From Tim Ried of Reuters: "Dozens of former Republican officials, who view the party as unwilling to stand up to former President Donald Trump and his attempts to undermine U.S. democracy, are in talks to form a center-right breakaway party, four people involved in the discussions told Reuters."
More than 120 of them held a Zoom call last Friday to discuss the breakaway group, which would run on a platform of "principled conservatism," including adherence to the Constitution and the rule of law - ideas those involved say have been trashed by Trump."
I don't know if this third-party movement is going anywhere (I certainly hope it does), but the Republican civil war is already having repercussions. In Arkansas for example, state Senator Jim Hedren has left the GOP due to his ant-Trump sentiments, and is making noise about an independent political movement which may include him running for Governor. A strong independent candidacy on the right opens up the possibility of conservative voters being split, thus giving Democrats a chance in a race where they would otherwise have none.
Other problems for the GOP:
* As Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell is now effectively head of the Republican party. Nobody likes Mitch McConnell, least of all Donald Trump, who calls McConnell, "a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack".
* Voters are abandoning the Republican party in droves. Just 37% of adults say they have a favorable view of the party.
* President Biden's agenda is very popular.
To summarize the benefits of all this, from Jeet Heer of The Nation: "(T)his trend to a smaller and more divided Republican Party could give Joe Biden the breathing room he needs to govern. Such breathing room is crucial, because if Biden can push ahead with a robust stimulus, a large infrastructure bill, and a Federal Reserve committed to full employment, Democrats will have a much better chance of winning in 2022 and 2024.
Ultimately, Trumpism is a political
problem. Making sure the GOP suffers an extended electoral exile will
help drain Republican enthusiasm for their favorite demagogue. As long
as Republicans keep Trump as their de facto leader, there is every
reason for Democrats to keep hammering away at him."
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