Relaxing on a Sunday with The Republican Civil War

I think Republicans are likely to flip both the House and Senate in 2022; the party out of power usually does well in midterm elections. Add to that the fact that in most states Republicans will control House redistricting and will be able to stitch things up to their advantage.

On the other hand, it's just possible that Republicans will be too busy strangling each other to focus on anything else. Former President Donald Trump could be easing into retirement right now (and working on his legal defense for the many indictments he will soon be facing). But of course that's just wouldn't be Donald Trump. From Gabby Orr and Meridith McGraw of Politico.com: 

"According to three people familiar with the planning, Trump will soon begin vetting candidates at Mar-a-Lago who are eager to fulfill his promise to exact vengeance upon incumbent Republicans who’ve scorned him, and to ensure every open GOP seat in the 2022 midterms has a MAGA-approved contender vying for it."

"Trump already has received dozens of requests from prospective candidates seeking to introduce themselves and nab his endorsement, and formal meetings with them could begin as early as March. Now that Trump has survived his second Senate impeachment trial, he has shifted his focus to post-presidential activism — a venture mostly bankrolled by his new leadership PAC, Save America, which had $31 million in its coffers at the start of this month."

"And on Saturday, Trump is expected to make an appearance at a fundraising dinner for Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) at Mar-a-Lago with guests including MAGA firebrands Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) according to an invitation."

"Others in Trump’s orbit have encouraged him to wait and see if Republicans who’ve crossed him and are up for reelection next fall, such as Govs. Mike DeWine of Ohio and Brian Kemp of Georgia, attempt a peace offering before he launches a serious search for possible primary challengers."

In other words, thanks to Trump a lot of elected Republicans might be facing expensive, embarrassing primary challenges from members of their own party. Worse, Trump will be helping the GOP become increasingly identified with batshit-crazy people like Congresswomen Lauren Boebert, a person who endorses the "QAnon" conspiracy theory that a powerful cabal in Washington DC, which includes Bill and Hillary Clinton, is sodomizing children in secret underground tunnels while drinking blood as part of satanic ritual sacrifices.

One race I'm particularly enthused about in terms of Trump's meddling is the 2022 open-seat Senate contest in Pennsylvania. Former congressman Ryan Costello, a moderate Republican, is eyeing the seat. But team Trump of course want to derail Costello's candidacy, because Costello has criticized Trump. Winning this race might mean keeping control of the Senate for Democrats, so it's good news for them if team Trump manages to keep conservative voters from uniting against a strong, moderate candidate, and even better news if they can somehow beat Costello in the GOP primary and nominate a pro-Trump nut who cannot win the election. 

But the GOP has more to worry about than just primary election battles: If Donald Trump is determined to make the Republican party all "MAGA" all the time, some Republicans would prefer to split off into a third-party. From Tim Ried of Reuters: "Dozens of former Republican officials, who view the party as unwilling to stand up to former President Donald Trump and his attempts to undermine U.S. democracy, are in talks to form a center-right breakaway party, four people involved in the discussions told Reuters."

More than 120 of them held a Zoom call last Friday to discuss the breakaway group, which would run on a platform of "principled conservatism," including adherence to the Constitution and the rule of law - ideas those involved say have been trashed by Trump."

I don't know if this third-party movement is going anywhere (I certainly hope it does), but the Republican civil war is already having repercussions. In Arkansas for example, state Senator Jim Hedren has left the GOP due to his ant-Trump sentiments, and is making noise about an independent political movement which may include him running for Governor. A strong independent candidacy on the right opens up the possibility of conservative voters being split, thus giving Democrats a chance in a race where they would otherwise have none.

Other problems for the GOP:

* As Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell is now effectively head of the Republican party. Nobody likes Mitch McConnell, least of all Donald Trump, who calls McConnell, "a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack".

* Voters are abandoning the Republican party in droves. Just 37% of adults say they have a favorable view of the party.

* President Biden's agenda is very popular.

To summarize the benefits of all this, from Jeet Heer of The Nation: "(T)his trend to a smaller and more divided Republican Party could give Joe Biden the breathing room he needs to govern. Such breathing room is crucial, because if Biden can push ahead with a robust stimulus, a large infrastructure bill, and a Federal Reserve committed to full employment, Democrats will have a much better chance of winning in 2022 and 2024.

Ultimately, Trumpism is a political problem. Making sure the GOP suffers an extended electoral exile will help drain Republican enthusiasm for their favorite demagogue. As long as Republicans keep Trump as their de facto leader, there is every reason for Democrats to keep hammering away at him."

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Predictions: 2022 US Senate Races

Latest Updates: 8/28/22: All competitive races updated

Current Senate: 50 D, 50 R

Final prediction for 2022 Outcome:
51 D, 49 R
Democrats to pickup PA

Overview, 2/4/2021: "Democrats will expand their Senate majority in 2022" reads a headline from The Hill this week. I'm afraid I can't agree. While it's true that Republicans are defending more seats and will have to cope with a wave of retirements, I think as of today Democrats have only one strong pickup opportunity (PA) while several of their incumbents are very vulnerable. It is likely that Republicans will capture both the Senate and the House in 2022. Here's a good article that agrees with me that Republicans have the edge.

Update, 8/28/22: Three things creating hope for the blue team to hold the Senate:
1. Most Americans are not happy with the end of Roe v. Wade, and other things the Supreme Court has done recently.
2. Donald Trump is the leader of the Republican Party, and he is hurting it more than he's helping it.
3. The GOP had nominated a lot of bad candidates, and, seriously, can anyone tell me what their agenda is? I know Ron Johnson of Wisconsin wants to wreck social security and Medicare. So there's that.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. Open seat races stay on the competitive list by default. This post will be updated continuously through election day.

Competitive races:

Alabama
Rating: Guaranteed Republican hold
Republican: Businesswoman Katie Britt (incumbent Richard Shelby retiring)
Democrat: Democratic party organizer Will Boyd
Overview: (2/16/21) This race is competitive in name only; the Republican nominee will win. The only question here is: will Democrats be able to make this race something other than a total blowout? Like Georgia and a lot of other places, the population demographics of Alabama are changing in ways that don't favor Republicans, at least in the long term. Unfortunately, the Democratic party of Alabama is a complete mess.
(8/28/22) The very conservative Katie Britt might be a Senator for the next five decades.

Alaska
Rating: Likely Republican hold - Murkowski
Republican: Lisa Murkowski incumbent
Republican: Former state commissioner Kelly Tshibaka
Democrat: Educator Patricia Chesbro
Outlook: (7/13/21) Alaska has adopted a jungle-primary system and ranked-choice voting. What that means is all the candidates run together on one primary ticket, then the top 4 appear on the ballot in November. If no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the ranked-choice voting kicks in. This race has already gotten crazy: the Republican party has endorsed Kelly Tshibaka over the incumbent Murkowski. What does it all mean? On election day, Murkowski and Tshibaka will probably be the top vote-getters, followed by a Democrat, followed by a candidate from the conservative Alaska Independence party. And it's very likely the ranked-choice system will kick in. For the Democrats to have a chance they will need a strong candidate who can (1) finish in first or second place and (2) convince some voters to make him or her their second choice if not their first. I think Murkowski is still favored to win. In 2016, even Alaska Democrats voted for her because the third-party conservative candidates were so scary.
(8/28/22) Democrats are just about all-in for Murkowski, as she is seen as the lesser of two evils when compared to the more conservative Tshibaka. That should be enough for the win.

Arizona
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Mark Kelly (incumbent)
Republican: Businessman Blake Masters
Overview: Mark Kelly has been both lucky and good. Good, in that he so impressed Arizona voters in the 2020 special election that he outpolled his opponent Martha McSally by nearly 80,000 votes whereas Joe Biden beat Trump by only 10,000. He's also been lucky in that McSally was deeply unpopular, and, looking forward to the next election, Arizona Republicans are at war with each other. Republican Governor Doug Ducey would have been difficult for Kelly to beat, but Ducey (among others) has been officially censured by the Arizona GOP for failure to adequately endorse Trump's insanity. Now Ducey says he won't run, and Republicans might wind up with a nominee who's a complete looney tune.
(11/23/21) Attorney General Mark Brnovich is an ethically-challenged Trump syncophant. All things being equal, I'd say Kelly has the edge. But in a wave election, Brnovich is exactly the kind of Republican nut that will be propelled to office.
(8/28/22) Masters is a bit of a poster boy for this year's Republican newcomers: an ultra-conservative MAGA candidate who came out of nowhere with the help of Trump's endorsement. Kelly is leading in the polls, but some pundits are still calling this a tossup.

Colorado
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Michael Bennet (incumbent)
Republican: Businessman Joe O'Dea
Libertarian: Brian Peotter
Overview: Bennet is popular, and benefits from the fact that Colorado has been trending blue for years.
(8/28/22) Bennet is probably safe, as his Republican opponent is a bit of a nobody and because this race includes a Libertarian candidate who will probably eat some of the Republicans' lunch.

Florida
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: incumbent Marco Rubio
Democrat: Congresswoman Val Demings
Overview: 2020 was yet another year that Democrats had high hopes for statewide races in Florida, only to walk away with nothing. Now I think cynicism is setting in. This headline says it all: ‘What Democrat beats that guy?’: Top Dems flinch from Rubio challenge.
(8/28/22) Kudos to Val Demings who is making this a close race, but she's not going to win.

Georgia
Rating: Toss Up
Democrat: Raphael Warnock (incumbent)
Republican: Football player Herschel Walker
Libertarian: Chase Oliver
Overview: The biggest story to come out of any state in the 2020 election was Joe Biden carrying Georgia, and Democrats winning both of the state's Senate seats in January runoffs. Unfortunately, while Democrat Jon Ossoff won a six-year term, Raphael Warnock's special election win only got him two years. Winning a full six-year term will be an uphill climb; Democrats will need 100% of the enthusiasm generated in 2020 by the incredible grass roots campaign engineered by Stacey Abrams.
(3/15/21) After first saying he would, now David Perdue will not run in 2022. That's good for Warnock.
(11/23/21) From the NYT: "Herschel Walker, the former N.F.L. star, has been accused of a host of erratic and frightening behavior, including threatening his ex-wife’s life while pointing a gun to her head." In another year, in another place, Warnock would easily beat Walker. But in a wave election where the Republican party is working hard to end free and fair elections, anything is possible.
(8/28/22) Not much has changed here. Walker is a terrible candidate who is nevertheless polling more or less equally with Warnock. Warnock might be ahead by a hair, but of course this is Georgia where it's critical to get over the 50% mark on election night. Otherwise it's a Warnock-Walker runoff, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance.

Iowa
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Charles Grassley
Democrat: Retired Admiral Michael Franken
Overview: The past decade has been a total disaster for Iowa Democrats; Iowa is a red state now, and no amount of incompetent leadership by Republicans seems to have any effect. However, Democrats' hope in Iowa (and other states) comes from the possibility that in the post-Trump era, the GOP may nominate some candidates so crazy that Democrats have a shot. Grassley may or may not retire, but state Senator Jim Carlin has already announced his candidacy. Carlin is definitely all-in for Trump-style politics and might be beatable for Democrats.
(8/28/22) Franken is running a fine campaign, it's conceivable he could lose to Grassley by only 10 points.

Missouri
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Attorney General Eric Schmitt (incumbent Roy Blunt retiring)
Democrat: Trudy Busch Valentine
Overview: (2/4/21) "Democrats appear to be a spent force in Missouri" - Sabato's Crystal Ball. Missouri is a red state now, and it looks like the Republicans will have an unbeatable nominee. It would be great if disgraced former Governor Eric Greitens jumped in, but it looks like the chances of a Democrat winning this open-seat race are vanishingly small.
(11/23/21) Greitens is in and apparently leading in the polls. It defies belief.
(8/28/22) Any hope Democrats had here vanished when Schmitt won the GOP primary.

Nevada
Outlook: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Catherine Cortez Masto (incumbent)
Republican: Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt
Overview: (2/4/21) Recent elections in Nevada have been close while trending blue enough to let Democrats win the big races. Cortez Masto benefits from the fact that the Nevada GOP doesn't have any big names to go up against her.
(11/23/21) Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt has run in a bunch of races in Nevada and lost all but one of them, consistently underperforming the GOP ticket. Another crazy Trump syncophant who just might win in a big year for Republicans.
(8/28/22) Not much to report here. Cortez Masto has a small lead in the polls not conducted by Republicans; Democratic incumbents usually outperform the polls in Nevada due to strong union turnout in Las Vegas (see any race Harry Reid ever ran). Still, if the Republicans gain any momentum here, Cortez Masto is in trouble.

New Hampshire
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Maggie Hassan (incumbent)
Republican: Retired Army General Donald Bolduc
Overview: (2/4/21) Republican Governor Chris Sununu is wildly popular in New Hampshire; in his 2020 reelection he received huge crossover support from Biden voters. If he enters this race, he is highly likely to win. Kelly Ayotte, the incumbent Republican that Hassan defeated for this seat in 2016 by 1,017 votes would also be a strong candidate.
(11/23/21) Democrats have dodged a bullet with Sununu declining to run. I just noticed Hassan's likely opponent has a name that sounds like "Donald 'Bold' Duck". Sure, why not. He might even win.
(8/28/22) Hassan benefits from the fact that the GOP primary is very late - not until September 13. There are 11 candidates on that ballot, Donald Bolduc will win. This race will also feature to Libertarian candidate to eat some of the Republicans' lunch. Hassan is favored.

North Carolina
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Congressman Ted Budd
Democrat: Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley
Overview: Democrats saw crushing disappointments in North Carolina in 2020, including losing a Senate race that every poll said they would win. State Senator Jeff Jackson is a fine candidate, but considering that North Carolina is a purple-to-red state where Democrats rarely win, I think he faces an uphill climb.
(2/16/21) There's been plenty of talk about Donald Trump's hellspawn and their spouses running for office. Senator Lindsey Graham this month called Trump daughter-in-law Lara "the future of the Republican party", suggesting that she's going to run for and win this Senate seat to redeem the Trump name or something after retiring Senator Richard Burr voted to convict Trump in the impeachment trial. I have my doubts that any of the younger members of the Trump crime family have the same "charisma" Donald had.
(8/28/22) This one came out of nowhere. Cheri Beasley is running an outstanding campaign and is even or possibly ahead of Congressman Ted Budd. However, North Carolina is a purple-to-red state and I'm unlikely to call this for Beasley unless she's way ahead in the polls by election day.

Ohio
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Author J.D. Vance (incumbent Rob Portman retiring)
Democrat: Congressman Paul Ryan
Overview: Unless Republicans nominate someone who's a complete disaster as a candidate, they are guaranteed to win this race. Governor Mike DeWine, a Republican superstar, will be running for reelection at the top of the ticket, and the idea that there are a lot of DeWine voters who will crossover and vote for the Democrat in this Senate race is implausible.
(2/16/21) John Mandel is someone whom I hoped to never hear from again. Long-story short, the one-time rising star of the GOP turned out to be pretty crazy even by Republican standards. But after losing to Sherrod Brown in the 2012 Senate race, then running against Brown again in 2018 before dropping out of the race, he's turned up yet again. If he's the nominee, Democrats have a shot.
(8/28/22) It's good news in Ohio, but tough to forecast. Politics is probably finally rid of loony Republican Josh Mandel. Democrat Paul Ryan is running a brilliant campaign, J.D. Vance is running a terrible one. Polls are tied, but Ohio is so red that at the end of the day I'll probably have to call this for Vance.

Pennsylvania
Rating: Leans Democratic Pickup
Republican: Doctor Mehmet Oz (incumbent Pat Toomey retiring)
Democrat: Lt. Govenor John Fetterman
Overview: This race is the Democrats best, and possibly only chance to flip a Republican seat. If Lt. Govenor John Fetterman runs, I like his chances.
(2/16/21) Fetterman is in. On the Republican side, it's pretty quiet.
(11/23/21) Sean Parnell, the highest-profile candidate for the GOP, has just dropped out. Surprise, surprise: it's for wife-beating. I'm starting to like Fetterman's chances.
(8/28/22) The word "terrible" doesn't begin to describe how bad Mehmet Oz's campaign has been. Fetterman is ahead in the polls, but not comfortably ahead. Fetterman is favored.

Vermont
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Peter Welch (Pat Leahy retiring)
Republican: Army Veteran Gerald Malloy
Overview:(11/23/21) Democrat Peter Welch should have no trouble dispatching 'perennial candidate' Scott Milne.
(8/28/22) So the GOP found a new name to go up against Welch, but not one who can win.

Wisconsin
Rating: Toss Up
Republican: Ron Johnson
Democrat: Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes
Overview: This one is painful for me to write about., Here's what I said about the 2010 race between incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson: "So it's come to this. Russ Feingold, one of the smartest, most decent members of the Senate might lose to Rob Johnson, a man with no public policy experience who lies about his own background as he accepts the federal handouts that he claims to despise. What more is there to say? ...I just wish that if Russ is going to lose, it didn't have to be to such a completely meritless candidate." As if that wasn't painful enough, 2016 saw a Feingold v. Johnson rematch and despite polls showing Feingold leading most of the way, Johnson beat him again as Donald Trump carried Wisconsin. Johnson has said in the past he would only serve two terms in the Senate, but he hasn't announced retirement yet.
(8/28/22) Big surprise, Johnson lied about only serving two terms just like he lies about everything else. I continue to wonder if Johnson isn't secretly running an experiment to see if he can deliberately be the most meritless, dishonest candidate possible and still win. This year, Johnson big issue is going after social security and Medicare! Democrat Mandela Barnes in ahead in the polls, but that's what we said about Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin in 2016, wasn't it. If nothing changes, I will probably call this one for the blue team. Of course I did the same thing when Johnson ran in 2016 and 2010 so...

Races unlikely to become competitive:

Arkansas: Republican John Boozman incumbent. Outlook: It seems funny now that it was only a decade ago that Arkansas had two Democratic Senators. An age may unfold ere there is another competitive statewide race there.

California: Democrat Alex Padilla appointed incumbent. California has problems, and I wonder if they are bad enough to put Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom in jeopardy. His approval ratings are poor. Still I don't see any indication that will keep Alex Padilla from winning a full term as Senator; he's already won a statewide race as Secretary of State.

Connecticut: Democrat Richard Blumenthal incumbent. Outlook: The Connecticut Republican party has faded from relevance.

Hawaii: Democrat Brian Schatz incumbent. Outlook: Schatz has this seat as long as he wants it. The Hawaii GOP barely exists.

Idaho: Republican Mike Crapo incumbent. Outlook: With a name like Crapo, it has to be good.

Kansas: Republican Jerry Moran incumbent. Outlook: Quiz question: Who was George McGill? Answer: Mr. McGill was the last Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas. That was in..get ready...1932!

New York: Democrat Chuck Schumer incumbent. Outlook: Schumer has become one of the most respected and powerful Senators in party history.

North Dakota: Republican John Hoeven incumbent. Outlook: Hoeven is probably the safest bet of the year.

Oklahoma: Republican James Lankford incumbent. Outlook: Unbeatable.

Oregon: Democrat Ron Wyden incumbent. Outlook: The Oregon GOP has been on life support for a number of years now.

South Carolina: Republican Tim Scott incumbent. Tim Scott has some redeeming qualities, such as deep-sixing a few of Trump's more racist judicial nominees. Anyway, short of a major third-party challenge that would split the Republican vote, he's safe.

South Dakota: Republican John Thune incumbent. Outlook: Democrats didn't even bother to field a candidate against Thune in 2010.

Utah: Republican Mike Lee incumbent. Outlook: Why does Utah even bother to hold statewide elections?

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