Sunday, November 06, 2016

2016 Election Predictions

The Presidential Race
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton (D) 50.3%, Donald Trump (R) 45.7%, Other 4.0%

Electoral Vote:
Hillary Clinton (D) 323, Donald Trump (R) 215



The US Senate Races

Current Senate: 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats,
New Senate: 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans.

The competitive races:
We seem to have a bunch of coin-tosses.
Likely Democratic pickups: Illinois, Wisconsin
Leans Democratic pickup: NH, PA
Leans Democratic hold: NV
Toss up: IN, MO, NC. All three of these are almost impossible to call. But I'll go with Democrat Evan Bayh to narrowly win Indiana. Very recent polls have show Democrat Jason Kander losing momentum in Missouri, and with Trump way ahead of Clinton there, I have to go with the Republican Roy incumbent Blunt. I think Clinton is slightly ahead in North Carolina, and although Democrat Deborah Ross seems to trail every so slightly in the polls, I think Burr's recent remarks about Clinton will cost him.
Leans Republican hold: FL


The US House Races
Current House
: 248 Republicans, 187 Democrats.  
New House: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats.


The Gubernatorial Races

Democrats to pickup IN, MO, NC.
Republicans to pickup NH, VT.


Thanks for reading. Joe

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