Thursday, November 01, 2012

2012 Election Predictions

The Presidential Race
Popular Vote:
Barrack Obama (D) 50.8%, Mitt Romney (R) 48.2%, Other 1.0%

2012 will be the first Presidential election in which the incumbent President won a second term, but by a smaller margin of the popular vote than he won his first term.

Electoral Vote:
Barrack Obama (D) 332, Mitt Romney (R) 206
 The only state where I'm going against the consensus of the pundits is Florida. The polling average does show Romney ahead there by a tiny margin. However, those polls don't include the third party candidates. The vote for the Libertarian party may well have a devastating impact on Republican fortunes this year. Gary Johnson, their Presidential nominee, draws about 5% support nationally when he is included in the polls. I think he'll only get about one-tenth of that on election day. But even that would be enough to considerably improve President Obama's chances in several swing states.

The Senate Races

Since I started forecasting the Senate in 2006 I have called 105 races correctly and missed 1. Sorry, Alex Giannoulias. This year is proving tough, because there are a number of close races in small states with limited polling. But here goes. Click here for details on the predictions.

Current Senate: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans.  
New Senate: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans.

The competitive races:
Arizona: Carmona (D) over Flake (R) - Democratic gain
Connecticut: Murphy (D) over McMahon (R)
Florida: Nelson (D) over Mack (R)
Indiana: Donnelly (D) over Mourdock (R) - Democratic gain
Maine: King (I) over Summers (R) and Dill (D) - Democratic gain
Massachusetts: Warren (D) over Brown (R) - Democratic gain
Michigan: Stabenow (D) over Hoekstra (R)
Missouri: McCaskill (D) over Akin (R)
Montana: Rehberg (R) over Tester (D) - Republican gain
Nebraska: Fischer (R) over Kerrey (D) - Republican gain
Nevada: Berkley (D) over Heller (R) - Democratic gain
North Dakota: Berg (R) over Heitkamp (D) - Republican gain
Ohio: Brown (D) over Mandel (R)
Pennsylvania: Casey (D) over Smith (R)
Virginia: Kaine (D) over Allen (R)
Wisconsin: Baldwin (D) over Thompson (R)

The House Races

Current House: 242 Republicans, 193 Democrats.  
New House: 233 Republicans, 202 Democrats.

The House is most difficult to forecast after the decennial reapportionment of congressional seats. There are a lot more districts where we're just not sure what the vote is going to look like. What we do know is that because the Republican party did so well in the 2010 election (and the for that matter, the 2000 election) at the state level, they were able to gerrymander a lot of districts in their favor. To counter that, the Democrats have the opportunity to take back a lot of seats they shouldn't have lost in 2010, and the fact that their going to fare slightly better than Republicans nationwide in this election.

The Gubernatorial Races
In the four races that are still competitive, the blue team is playing defense. We'll win all but one.
Click here for details on the predictions.

Montana: Bullock (D) over Hill (R)
New Hampshire: Hassan (D) over Lamontagne (R)
North Carolina: McCrory over Dalton (D) - Republican gain
Washington: Inslee (D) over McKenna (R)

Washington State (Joe lives in Seattle). Some background.

Attorney General: Ferguson (D) over Dunn (R)
R-74: Marriage Equality - Approved. YAY!
I-502: Marijuana Legalization - Approved. YAY!
I-1240: Charter Schools - Approved. BOO!
I-1185: 2/3 majority to raise taxes - Approved. BOO!

Thanks for reading. Joe


LexiconNinja said...

I am inclined to agree with you on Florida. The polling is close (with lots of prognosticators giving it to Romney), but I think Obama might be able to pull off a win here.

I wish we had a better idea of the House. Everyone seems to be favoring the Republicans to keep most of their seats. With so little polling for this races I am not sure how or why that is, but after the infamous votes the Tea Party freshmen have taken in the last two years, I say shame on most of these districts if they re-elect most of these douche bags. I cannot believe so much of America actually wants a voucher + private insurance rather than Medicare.

M. Joseph Goodfriend said...

I'm not generally going to publish comments containing the words "douche bags" but in this case I'll make an exception. I'll have some choice words for the teabaggers in a few days.

M. Joseph Goodfriend said...

I see that PPP just published a poll showing Carmona down by 5 against Flake. I don't think I would have called Arizona for Carmona if I'd seen that. Oh well.

LexiconNinja said...

Sorry for my rude comments. I get heated when dealing with the Tea Party wing.

I am not sure Berkley is going to make it. Too bad. I thought for sure the Harry Reid machine would (once again) out do the polling. Heller looks to be victorious. Heitkamp could still pull out a win though.