Sunday, November 04, 2007

Election 2008 Preview

Hi! The 2008 election is one year from today. I'm expecting good news this time around, so I thought I'd like to see how accurately I can predict the outcome a full year ahead of the vote. Hopefully, these predictions will be as accurate as those I made for 2006.

The Presidential Race

The Nominees: Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. I predict that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee. While Romney is currently behind Giuliani in national polls, he's way ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire. Combine this fact with Giuliani's many scandals and his lack of conservative credentials and a Romney nomination becomes likely.

The Electoral College: 270 Electoral Votes needed to win

All of the Blue states above went Democratic in 2000 and 2004 except for New Hampshire. All of the Toss Up states went Republican in 2004. Since the Republicans are unlikely to carry any of the Blue states, in order to win they must carry nearly all of the Gray states in 2008, and a loss of Ohio or Florida would guarantee defeat.

The Prediction: Hillary Clinton will win the election, and will also become the first Democrat to carry 51% of the vote since 1964. The final tally in the electoral college will be 321 to 217.

The Senate:
Prospects for Democratic gains in the Senate are very bright.
Currently they have a 51-49 majority. I predict that they will gain 5 seats.
This will include:
Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia
one of these two: Minnesota, New Mexico
one of these four: Idaho, Maine, North Carolina, Oregon.

The House
The situation in the House is very fluid. When the House changes hands, as it did in 2006, the party on the losing end usually sees a large number of retirements among its incumbents in the next election. Several Republican incumbents in competitive seats have already announced that they will not run in 2008, and more retirements are expected in the next few months. This will create some good opportunities for Democrats. The only bright spot for Republicans is the opportunity to pick up a few of the seats they lost in 2006 in areas that usually vote Republican, such as those lost in Kansas, suburban California and rural Pennsylvania. The Democrats will pick up 8 or 9 seats.

1 comment:

Leo Klein said...

I think we'll do well in the general. I even think Hillary has a good chance if Romney is the Republican Candidate.

I distinctly remember these two Republicans wearing huge six-foot tall flip-flops at a Kerry Rally in Madison in '04. If Romney's the Republican Candidate, I'm going to try and track those two guys down and see if I can borrow their gear as part of my own coverage of the Republican Nominee.