Thursday, August 14, 2025

A Few Links to Dispel Conservative Myths Part 21.2: Red State "Freedom" - Idaho

In a post last year I commented on the phenomenon of conservative folks who are moving to red states because they say they enjoy greater freedom and safety in MAGA America. In reality this "freedom" and "safety" are illusory. For example, columnist Glenn H. Reynolds of the New York Post said of new arrivals to the state of Tennessee (where he lives), "They come seeking a place where they are free from tyrannical governments, where their businesses and money are safe from destruction and confiscation, where they and their families feel safe and included." In reality, Tennessee government is downright draconian in many ways, has one of the most regressive taxation systems in the country, and is plagued violent crime.

I'd like to visit this topic one more time, as I was intrigued by this Fox News article about conservative Americans moving to Idaho, "Why are Americans fleeing the West Coast for this deep red state? Freedom and Friendliness". (The article may require a Fox News account to read, so I've pasted it in its entirety below.)

The article is actually, dare I say it, reasonably fair and balanced. It points out repeatedly that in a number of ways Idaho is NOT any more "free" than the blue states of the west coast. But let's sift through what immigrants to the Gem state are said in the article.

"
COVID restrictions, and Idaho’s lack thereof, were major factors that drove all the former West Coast residents Fox News spoke with east. But additional freedoms they found in Idaho won them over, and they weren't bothered by new restrictions, like prohibitions on marijuana."

"Nick Kostenborder and Ashley Manning, formerly of Portland, had a baby on the way in summer 2020 and were deeply unhappy with lockdowns and masking requirements. Government-imposed mask mandates didn’t end in Oregon and Washington until March 2022. Schools in all three West Coast states were among the last to re-open for in-person instruction.

By contrast, Idaho approved reopening plans in July 2020 and never had a statewide mask mandate. Lawmakers twice tried to pass legislation explicitly barring the government from ever requiring face masks in the future.

Manning recalled visiting North Idaho in November 2020, a couple of months after the couple’s son, Taylor, was born. Businesses were open. People were out in public, laughing and talking without anything obscuring their faces. It seemed so alien nearly nine months into the pandemic."

OK, let's break down a few things. To read this article, you'd think that due to COVID restrictions businesses on the west coast were closed and people required to mask outdoors in the fall of 2020. Neither of those things is the case. And it's not as if no one in Idaho was masking in public. Here's the Idaho state government itself encouraging masks in 2022. Schools in Idaho were still mostly distance-learning and/or in-person learning with masking and social distancing in 2020, the same as other places. And of course to me, preference for a world with no safety measures and poor adoption of vaccination during a pandemic is a strange kind of "freedom". A year after widespread vaccination for COVID became available, the rate of COVID deaths per capita in Idaho were nearly double that of Washington state.

To continue with the article: "My daughter’s educational health, my daughter’s mental health …. was being affected by just the garbage that is being taught in the public schools in Washington," he said."

What garbage? The article doesn't say. And of course the primary focus of Idaho's freedom is about guns.

"You go to Walmart, you're going to run into 15, 20 people that are open carrying," Zielinski said. "It's awesome. You know what we don't have here, is we don't have all the goofy crime that you see in western Washington."

Gun deaths per capita are far higher in Idaho than in Washington. Personally, I feel freer here in Washington where I'm less likely to get shot.

Just one more observation, this one not discussed by the article. Idaho's state income tax is a flat 5.7%. Washington state has no income tax. Which state's population do you think is freer from "tyrannical government"?

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COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho — North Idaho can bring a bit of culture shock for new arrivals. Walking around Coeur d’Alene, Seth Horst was amazed by how many people made eye contact, smiled, and said, "Hi." Many would even strike up a conversation.

"People want to interact, people want to engage with you," he said. "I think that’s what’s missing in a lot of society, and I think that’s why people like it here so much."

Horst, a former California Highway Patrol officer, and his family made that first trip to Coeur d'Alene in September 2020. Within three months, they sold their Chico home and moved to Idaho.

The Gem State's population has grown more than 12% since 2018 as thousands of families, primarily from the West Coast, have made similar moves. 

Families who left California, Oregon and Washington for Idaho all echoed similar sentiments when speaking with Fox News. They wanted to leave behind what they viewed as oppressive policies in their home states and live in a place where they could be "left alone," as Bryan Zielinski put it.

"It’s a very American culture," said Zielinski, who left the Seattle area last year and recently opened a gun store in Post Falls, Idaho. "It’s a culture of the West. Of extreme freedom and prosperity."

"We don't need to impose California, Oregon and Washington garbage into Idaho," he added. "We don't need it. We're perfect as we are." 

Schools, Second Amendment and safe communities: "Where they could be free"

COVID restrictions, and Idaho’s lack thereof, were major factors that drove all the former West Coast residents Fox News spoke with east. But additional freedoms they found in Idaho won them over, and they weren't bothered by new restrictions, like prohibitions on marijuana. 

Nick Kostenborder and Ashley Manning, formerly of Portland, had a baby on the way in summer 2020 and were deeply unhappy with lockdowns and masking requirements. Government-imposed mask mandates didn’t end in Oregon and Washington until March 2022. Schools in all three West Coast states were among the last to re-open for in-person instruction.

By contrast, Idaho approved reopening plans in July 2020 and never had a statewide mask mandate. Lawmakers twice tried to pass legislation explicitly barring the government from ever requiring face masks in the future.

Manning recalled visiting North Idaho in November 2020, a couple of months after the couple’s son, Taylor, was born. Businesses were open. People were out in public, laughing and talking without anything obscuring their faces. It seemed so alien nearly nine months into the pandemic.

"We were just blown away by how awesome it was," she said. "That was what we were hoping for, but we didn't know it was actually possible."

They moved to Sandpoint the next April and soon befriended several other ex-West Coast residents.

"They wanted to be somewhere where they could be free," she said. "And we just hope it stays that way."

Educational policies served as major catalysts for Zielinski, a conservative who previously lived in the Seattle area.

"My daughter’s educational health, my daughter’s mental health …. was being affected by just the garbage that is being taught in the public schools in Washington," he said. The family moved to Idaho last June and Zielinski said his daughter, now 13, is getting great grades. More importantly, she's happy again, he said.

Gun laws were another motivating factor for Zielinski, a vocal Second Amendment advocate who previously managed a large gun store in Washington, and opened his own a couple of months ago.

Washington has banned the sale of magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds, as well as "assault weapons" — primarily semiautomatic rifles — and many of the parts used to build them.

Idaho, meanwhile, is one of nearly 30 states with constitutional concealed carry, has no laws regulating high-capacity magazines or so-called "assault weapons," and even allows residents to own a machine gun as long as it’s registered, according to an NRA overview.

It’s common to see people around town with guns prominently holstered on their hips.

"You go to Walmart, you're going to run into 15, 20 people that are open carrying," Zielinski said. "It's awesome. You know what we don't have here, is we don't have all the goofy crime that you see in western Washington."

He added, "Everybody's happy. Everybody's nice."

Idaho has also tried to cash in on businesses and entrepreneurs fleeing its neighbors to the west. The Mercatus Center, a free market think tank at George Mason University, dubbed Idaho the "least regulated state" in 2020, after Gov. Brad Little announced the state had cut more than 1,800 pages of regulations.

"Idaho has been cutting regulations statewide while other states such as Washington [and] Oregon have been adding regulations," Sandpoint Mayor Jeremy Grimm said. "Although many regulations are good intentioned, they kind of live on forever."

 There are plenty of areas where Idaho is less free than its neighbors, but those are tradeoffs many movers either agree with or are willing to overlook.

While West Coast states have passed sweeping mandates surrounding transgender kids, Idaho lawmakers instead enacted a ban on transition drugs and surgeries for most minors, which the U.S. Supreme Court last month allowed officials to enforce.

The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing Idaho's abortion ban, one of the strictest in the nation. And possession of more than 3 ounces of marijuana remains illegal in the Gem State, punishable by thousands of dollars in fines and up to five years in prison.

Such restrictions don’t bother Kostenborder, even though he identifies as a libertarian.

"The last thing I'm going to do is be the libertarian from Portland, show up here and be like, ‘Hey man, this place is way better than where I came from. Now, you know what you knuckle-draggers need to do is start doing things the way we did them in Portland,'" he said. "I'm not pushing for legal pot in Idaho. I don't care. If they want to keep it illegal, that's fine with me."

"I see the Democrats as being far more oppressive than the conservatives," he added.

Much of Idaho's allure lies outside of politics, according to families Fox News spoke with. It's in the clean sidewalks and graffiti-free neighborhoods. The friendly banter with strangers and breathtaking scenery. The gut feeling one gets driving across the bridge spanning nearly two miles over the northern end of Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho’s biggest lake.

That last one is referred to as the "Long Bridge moment," Grimm said.

"You drive across this bridge on a beautiful day, and you see the Selkirk and Cabinet mountain range and the lake," he said. "And it's one of those moments of arrival."

Manning missed some elements of Portland after the move, particularly the food and abundance of entertainment options. But during the family’s most recent trip back to Oregon in April, she looked around and came to a realization.

"These aren’t our people anymore, because we feel so at home here and just like we belong," she said. "In Portland, it’s just not the case anymore."

Now, she commutes 10 minutes to a job she loves, where she feels free to share her opinions and be proud of her faith. She and Kostenborder have made friends with fellow expats, including those living right on their street.

"We felt like we had a family just within our own neighborhood," she added.

 

 

Sunday, May 18, 2025

2026 Senate Race Predictions

Most recent updates: 8/14/25 - NC and OH
 
Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D

Overview, 5/18/25: In 2005, Republicans controlled the Senate 56 to 44. Then Democrats netted 8 seats in 2006 and another 8 in 2008 for an incredible 60 to 40 majority. Alas, nothing like that is going to happen in the next four years. Even if the blue team does well, there are very few Republican Senate seats that will see competitive races. The goal of course is to net at least 3 seats in the next two elections so as to have a 50 to 50 majority with the vice presidential tie breaker in 2029, assuming the Democratic nominee wins the Presidency.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. Open seat races stay on the competitive list by default. This post will be updated continuously through election day.

Competitive and open seat races:

Alabama
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: ? (
Tommy Tuberville incumbent apparently retiring)
Democrat: ?

Overview: Tommy Tuberville isn't just the stupidest Senator, he's possibly the stupidest person alive. This race will not be competitive unless Republicans nominate pedophile Roy Moore again.

Alaska
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Dan Sullivan incumbent

Democrat: Former congresswoman Mary Peltola?
Overview:
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system narrowly survived a challenge in the 2024 election. In theory, ranked-choice give Democrats a shot in any statewide race in Alaska in the same manner as Democrat Mary Peltola scored an unlikely win there in 2022. If only one Democrat enters the race, and multiple Republicans do, some Republican voters are likely to vote for the Democrat rather than another Republican as their "second choice". But more likely is an easy win for Sullivan in this race.

Florida 2026 Special
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Ashley Moody (incumbent)
Democrat: ?
Overview: Incumbent Marco Rubio left this seat to join the Trump cabinet and Ashley Moody was appointed for the last two years of Rubio's term. She is running in 2028 for a full term. The chances of a Democrat winning in Florida any time soon are negligible.

Georgia
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Jon Ossoff (incumbent)
Republican: Congressman Buddy Carter or state Insurance Commissioner John King (likely)
Libertarian: ?
Overview: Georgia is a reddish-purple state, but Ossoff has gotten lucky in that Republican Governor Brian Kemp has declined to run in this race.

Illinois
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton? (incumbent Dick Durbin retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: The Republicans looking at this race are all minor-leaguers. I'm not worried about this one.

Kentucky
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Mitch McConnell incumbent
(likely retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview: Popular Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is not running in this race, so there's about a 99% chance the Republican nominee will win.

Maine
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Susan Collins incumbent

Democrat: ?
Overview: In one of the most frustrating races of all time, Democrats were very confident of beating Susan Collins in 2020. Polls showed Democratic nominee ahead by about 5%; she lost by 8.6%. This race will attract a lot of attention and money, but Collins is likely unbeatable.

Michigan
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: ? (incumbent Gary Peters retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: Democrats managed to elect Elaine Slotkin to the open Senate seat here despite Trump's narrow win in 2024. The blue team has the edge in this race, but a win is far from guaranteed.

Minnesota
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Peggie Flanagan or Congresswoman Angie Craig (likely) (incumbent Tina Smith retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: I'm encouraged by the fact that the Democrats will probably have a top-tier candidate in this race while the Republicans will not.

New Hampshire
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Chris Pappas (likely) (incumbent Jean Shaheen retiring)
Republican: Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown?
Overview: Yet another Democratic retirement. Sigh. OK, well, Chris Pappas has the edge here over the second and third-tier Republicans looking at this race.

North Carolina
Rating: Leans Democratic takeover
Republican: ? (incumbent Thom Tillis retiring)
Democrat: Former Governor Roy Cooper (likely)
Overview: Democrats saw crushing disappointments in North Carolina in 2020, including losing a Senate race that every poll said they would win. The blue team starts the 2026 election cycle with some hope here, as Democrat Josh Stein just won the gubernatorial election by 15 points. Any hope of winning back the Senate goes through North Carolina.
(7/2/25): Tillis is out. If the Democrats have a good nominee, and the Republicans anything less than a near-perfect nominee, this race will lean blue.
(8/14/25): Cooper is in. I like his chances.

Ohio:
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Jon Husted (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Senator Sherrod Brown
Overview: Republican Jon Husted was appointed to this seat. Appointed incumbents don't have a particularly good track record when it comes to winning a full term in the next election. Sherrod Brown had a kind of magic, winning three races in red-state Ohio before losing by 3 last year as Trump carried the state by 11 points. It will take a blue wave and then some for Brown to complete a come back.

Texas
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: John Cornyn (incumbent) or state Attorney General Ken Paxton
Democrat: ?
Overview: Democrats will tell you they are playing the long game in Texas. A very, very long game. Population demographics keep changing in ways which would seem to favor Democrats, and Beto O'Rourke keeping registering new voters, yet the blue team just keeps getting stomped. And frankly, Democrats are getting tired of trying to get excited about statewide races in Texas (and Florida) only to lose every time. I would not even be writing about this race except for the fact that it looks like relatively-sane incumbent John Cornyn is going to lose a primary challenge to criminal nut-job Ken Paxton. In theory, this means Democrats have a chance. But come on, it's Texas.

Races unlikely to become competitive:

Arkansas: Republican Tom Cotton incumbent. An age may unfold ere there is another competitive statewide race here.

Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper incumbent. Colorado is surrounded by seven very red states, but I expect no trouble in this race.

Delaware: Democrat Chris Coons incumbent. At a time when transgender people are hated in America, it was nice to see Delware elect Sarah McBride to Congress. This seat is safely blue.

Idaho: Republican Jim Risch incumbent. I've been to Idaho, it's beautiful. Let's quit while we're ahead.

Iowa: Republican Joni Ernst incumbent. I grew up in Iowa. It's unrecognizable to me now. No matter how disastrous Republicans policies are for the state, the GOP just keeps winning. There actually is some hope for the gubernatorial race in Iowa in 2026. But Iowans love them some Ernst for some reason.

Kansas: Republican Roger Marshall incumbent. Quiz question: Who was George McGill? Answer: Mr. McGill was the last Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas. That was in..get ready...1932!

Louisiana: Republican Bill Cassidy incumbent. Elections in Louisiana used to be interesting affairs with colorful candidates. Not any more.

Massachusetts: Ed Markey incumbent. Nothing to see here.

Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith incumbent. Studies often show that Mississippi is America's worst state to live in. So keep reelecting all its incumbents, right?

Montana: Republican Steve Daines incumbent. Montana used to be a somewhat purple state. Not any more.

Nebraska: Republican Pete Ricketts. In a state that just passed a constitutional amendment severely limiting abortion, I'm not sanguine about the Democratic party's chances.

New Jersey: Cory Booker incumbent. Trump got 46% in New Jersey, good grief. Nevertheless, I don't think Booker is in any trouble.

New Mexico: Ben Ray Luján incumbent. The New Mexico Republican party is pretty weak stuff. They didn't mount much of an offense in the 2024 Senate race there even though Trump made the race fairly close.

Oklahoma: Markwayne Mullin incumbent. Senator Mullin's biggest accomplishment is trying to start a fistfight with the President of the Teamsters in a congressional hearing. Great job, Oklahoma.

Oregon: Jeff Merkley incumbent. Merkley is probably running and thus will win another term.

Rhode Island: Jack Reed incumbent. Reed is running and will win another term.

South Carolina: Republican Lindsey Graham incumbent. Graham's approval rating in South Carolina hovers around 30%. You'd think that would make him vulnerable. Well, this state is not known for its primary challenges even to the most unpopular politicians. And I can't remember the last time the Democrats fielded a competitive candidate in any statewide race here.

South Dakota: Republican Mike Rounds incumbent. The Dakotas just keep moving to the right.

Tennessee: Republican Bill Hagerty incumbent. Outlook: The Democratic party doesn't even bother to try to field serious candidates in statewide races any more. They might as well go with the strategy of letting Hagerty run unopposed, hoping that reduced Republican turnout will help Democrats in other races.

Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner incumbent. Virginia's not all that blue, but I anticipate no trouble here. Trump trying to hurt Virginia's large federal worker population isn't doing the GOP any favors.

West Virginia: Republican Shelley Moore Capito incumbent. The Republican will win another term with about 70% of the vote.

Wyoming: Republican Cynthia Lummis incumbent. Republicans control the Wyoming state Senate 29 to 2 and state House 56 to 6. So yeah.


Sunday, December 08, 2024

No, Harris Would Not Have Won If She'd Just Done the Opposite Of Everything She Did

There's an episode of The Simpsons where Homer attempts to coach Bart in miniature golf.

Homer: Keep your head down, follow through.

[Bart putts and misses]

Homer: Okay, that didn't work.  This time, move your head and don't follow through.


Democrats are experiencing something like that in the aftermath of the election. That is, the misbegotten belief that we would have won if we'd simply done the opposite of everything we did or did not do. This belief is wrong but has taken hold in the party to the point of mass delusion.

Kamala Harris ran a virtually flawless campaign. Before she became the nominee, her approval rating stood at 38%. By October, it had risen to 45%, exceeding that of Donald Trump. Her biggest accomplishment was pulling virtually even with Trump on the question of whom voters trust more on the economy; Trump had led Biden by 15% on that metric. Harris handily defeated Trump in their lone debate. She also raised a staggering $1.5 billion from donors, putting Republicans at a considerable resource deficit. On the issues on which she campaigned, she had overwhelming bipartisan support. And she did it all in just over 100 days.

The truth is, it was always extremely unlikely Democrats could win in 2024. Two reasons:
1. No party in power has ever won another term given such dismal voter sentiment. Specifically:
* 52% of voters say they are worse off than they were four years ago.
* Nearly half of voters say the economy was the most important issue of the election. But 75% rate the economy as fair or poor, only 25% as excellent are good. And 62% say the economy is getting worse.

2. The pandemic. From Cooper Burton of ABC News: "Among democracies that held elections this year, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose seats or vote share from the last election. That includes democracies of all kinds and in all corners of the globe."

And yes, I predicted Harris would win, despite an environment that I'm now describing as extremely unfavorable to her. I still think my call for Harris was reasonable under the circumstances. The polls underestimated Trump's support for the third consecutive election.

But as soon as the vote came in, the second guessing of Democratic strategy started. And Democrats, progressive thinkers and other pundits all seem to have the same reaction: Harris would have won if only she'd taken the opposite tack on one important issue or another. And of course no one offering this sage advice can agree with anyone else.

1. According to Pete Buttigieg, the campaign was too online, and did not make enough in-person connections.
The Daily Show's Jon Stewart says the opposite, mocking the Harris campaign for too much direct contact with swing-state voters.

2. Senator Bernie Sanders says the problem is that Harris abandoned the working class by not running to the left and talking more about social justice.
Senator John Fetterman says Harris should have run harder to the right, talking more about border security.

3. Some say Harris needed to embrace the Palestinian movement.
On the contrary others say Harris needed to distance herself from the Palestinian movement.

4. Or, you name it:
Harris was sunk by "woke" issues. (Never mind that Harris did not run on woke issues at all).
Harris needed to talk less about abortion.
Harris should not have asked billionaires to campaign with her.
Harris should not have tried to win over Republicans by campaigning with Liz Cheney.
Harris spent too much on celebrity appearances.


I thought this noise would die down after a few days, but it hasn't. I just read an article from Lucian K. Truscott IV on nationalmemo.com explaining that the problem was that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz were too cheerful. Yes, you read that right. "Kamala Harris’ smile, on display everywhere she went, was genuine. So was Tim Walz’s jolly demeanor. But voters didn’t want someone nice to take command of an economy and a country they saw as failing them." So Harris should have stopped smiling and being positive. Anything else?

Yes. According to Democratic pundit James Carville this weekend, if Joe Biden had dropped out sooner, Democrats would have won the election, "And it wouldn’t have been that close because we would have had so many frickin’ talented people that were running." So apparently the problem was that the nominee was not someone other than Harris herself. For the record, polls taken around the time Biden dropped out did not show any potential Democratic nominees other than Harris polling any better than she did against Trump.

Exactly twenty years ago, I was devastated by John Kerry's loss and did not know how to move forward. But Democrats found a way. And Donald Trump's second term is shaping up to be a complete complete train wreck as he appoints a cabinet made up entirely of insane criminals, conspiracy theorists and sexual predators, while at the same time embracing tariffs and deportations that will wreck the economy. If Trump does enough damage, the Democratic party will start performing better even if it can't find another Barrack Obama.