2026 Senate Race Predictions

 Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D

Overview, 5/18/25: In 2005, Republicans controlled the Senate 56 to 44. Then Democrats netted 8 seats in 2006 and another 8 in 2008 for an incredible 60 to 40 majority. Alas, nothing like that is going to happen in the next four years. Even if the blue team does well, there are very few Republican Senate seats that will see competitive races. The goal of course is to net at least 3 seats in the next two elections so as to have a 50 to 50 majority with the vice presidential tie breaker in 2029, assuming the Democratic nominee wins the Presidency.

Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. Open seat races stay on the competitive list by default. This post will be updated continuously through election day.

Competitive and open seat races:

Alabama
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: ? (Tommy Tuberville incumbent apparently retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview: Tommy Tuberville isn't just the stupidest Senator, he's possibly the stupidest person alive. This race will not be competitive unless Republicans nominate pedophile Roy Moore again.

Alaska
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Dan Sullivan incumbent
Democrat: Former congresswoman Mary Peltola?
Overview: Alaska's ranked-choice voting system narrowly survived a challenge in the 2024 election. In theory, ranked-choice give Democrats a shot in any statewide race in Alaska in the same manner as Democrat Mary Peltola scored an unlikely win there in 2022. If only one Democrat enters the race, and multiple Republicans do, some Republican voters are likely to vote for the Democrat rather than another Republican as their "second choice". But more likely is an easy win for Sullivan in this race.

Florida 2026 Special
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Ashley Moody (incumbent)
Democrat: ?
Overview: Incumbent Marco Rubio left this seat to join the Trump cabinet and Ashley Moody was appointed for the last two years of Rubio's term. She is running in 2028 for a full term. The chances of a Democrat winning in Florida any time soon are negligible.

Georgia
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Jon Ossoff (incumbent)
Republican: Congressman Buddy Carter or state Insurance Commissioner John King (likely)
Libertarian: ?
Overview: Georgia is a reddish-purple state, but Ossoff has gotten lucky in that Republican Governor Brian Kemp has declined to run in this race.

Illinois
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton? (incumbent Dick Durbin retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: The Republicans looking at this race are all minor-leaguers. I'm not worried about this one.

Kentucky
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Mitch McConnell incumbent (likely retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview: Popular Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is not running in this race, so there's about a 99% chance the Republican nominee will win.

Maine
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Susan Collins incumbent
Democrat: ?
Overview: In one of the most frustrating races of all time, Democrats were very confident of beating Susan Collins in 2020. Polls showed Democratic nominee ahead by about 5%; she lost by 8.6%. This race will attract a lot of attention and money, but Collins is likely unbeatable.

Michigan
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: ? (incumbent Gary Peters retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: Democrats managed to elect Elaine Slotkin to the open Senate seat here despite Trump's narrow win in 2024. The blue team has the edge in this race, but a win is far from guaranteed.

Minnesota
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Lt. Governor Peggie Flanagan or Congresswoman Angie Craig (likely) (incumbent Tina Smith retiring)
Republican: ?
Overview: I'm encouraged by the fact that the Democrats will probably have a top-tier candidate in this race while the Republicans will not.

New Hampshire
Rating: Leans Democratic hold
Democrat: Congressman Chris Pappas (likely) (incumbent Jean Shaheen retiring)
Republican: Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown?
Overview: Yet another Democratic retirement. Sigh. OK, well, Chris Pappas has the edge here over the second and third-tier Republicans looking at this race.

North Carolina
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Congressman Thom Tillis
Democrat: Former Governor Roy Cooper?
Overview: Democrats saw crushing disappointments in North Carolina in 2020, including losing a Senate race that every poll said they would win. The blue team starts the 2026 election cycle with some hope here, as Democrat Josh Stein just won the gubernatorial election by 15 points. Any hope of winning back the Senate goes through North Carolina.

Texas
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: John Cornyn (incumbent) or state Attorney General Ken Paxton
Democrat: ?
Overview: Democrats will tell you they are playing the long game in Texas. A very, very long game. Population demographics keep changing in ways which would seem to favor Democrats, and Beto O'Rourke keeping registering new voters, yet the blue team just keeps getting stomped. And frankly, Democrats are getting tired of trying to get excited about statewide races in Texas (and Florida) only to lose every time. I would not even be writing about this race except for the fact that it looks like relatively-sane incumbent John Cornyn is going to lose a primary challenge to criminal nut-job Ken Paxton. In theory, this means Democrats have a chance. But come on, it's Texas.

Races unlikely to become competitive:

Arkansas: Republican Tom Cotton incumbent. An age may unfold ere there is another competitive statewide race here.

Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper incumbent. Colorado is surrounded by seven very red states, but I expect no trouble in this race.

Delaware: Democrat Chris Coons incumbent. At a time when transgender people are hated in America, it was nice to see Delware elect Sarah McBride to Congress. This seat is safely blue.

Florida 2026 Special: Republican: Ashley Moody incumbent. The state is hopeless for Democrats now.

Idaho: Republican Jim Risch incumbent. I've been to Idaho, it's beautiful. Let's quit while we're ahead.

Iowa: Republican Joni Ernst incumbent. I grew up in Iowa. It's unrecognizable to me now. No matter how disastrous Republicans policies are for the state, the GOP just keeps winning. There actually is some hope for the gubernatorial race in Iowa in 2026. But Iowans love them some Ernst for some reason.

Kansas: Republican Roger Marshall incumbent. Quiz question: Who was George McGill? Answer: Mr. McGill was the last Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas. That was in..get ready...1932!

Louisiana: Republican Bill Cassidy incumbent. Elections in Louisiana used to be interesting affairs with colorful candidates. Not any more.

Massachusetts: Ed Markey incumbent. Nothing to see here.

Minnesota: Tina Smith incumbent. Smith isn't going to win by double-digits, but I'd be shocked if this one is very close.

Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith incumbent. Studies often show that Mississippi is America's worst state to live in. So keep reelecting all its incumbents, right?

Montana: Republican Steve Daines incumbent. Montana used to be a somewhat purple state. Not any more.

Nebraska: Republican Pete Ricketts. In a state that just passed a constitutional amendment severely limiting abortion, I'm not sanguine about the Democratic party's chances.

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen incumbent. This one will be sort of close, but probably nothing to worry about.

New Jersey: Cory Booker incumbent. Trump got 46% in New Jersey, good grief. Nevertheless, I don't think Booker is in any trouble.

New Mexico: Ben Ray Luján incumbent. The New Mexico Republican party is pretty weak stuff. They didn't mount much of an offense in the 2024 Senate race there even though Trump made the race fairly close.

Ohio: Republican Jon Husted incumbent. Trump just carried Ohio by 11 points. I'd be shocked if this race became competitive.

Oklahoma: Markwayne Mullin incumbent. Senator Mullin's biggest accomplishment is trying to start a fistfight with the President of the Teamsters in a congressional hearing. Great job, Oklahoma.

Oregon: Jeff Merkley incumbent. Merkley is probably running and thus will win another term.

Rhode Island: Jack Reed incumbent. Reed is running and will win another term.

South Carolina: Republican Lindsey Graham incumbent. Graham's approval rating in South Carolina hovers around 30%. You'd think that would make him vulnerable. Well, this state is not known for its primary challenges even to the most unpopular politicians. And I can't remember the last time the Democrats fielded a competitive candidate in any statewide race here.

South Dakota: Republican Mike Rounds incumbent. The Dakotas just keep moving to the right.

Tennessee: Republican Bill Hagerty incumbent. Outlook: The Democratic party doesn't even bother to try to field serious candidates in statewide races any more. They might as well go with the strategy of letting Hagerty run unopposed, hoping that reduced Republican turnout will help Democrats in other races.

Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner incumbent. Virginia's not all that blue, but I anticipate no trouble here. Trump trying to hurt Virginia's large federal worker population isn't doing the GOP any favors.

West Virginia: Republican Shelley Moore Capito incumbent. The Republican will win another term with about 70% of the vote.

Wyoming: Republican Cynthia Lummis incumbent. Republicans control the Wyoming state Senate 29 to 2 and state House 56 to 6. So yeah.

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No, Harris Would Not Have Won If She'd Just Done the Opposite Of Everything She Did

There's an episode of The Simpsons where Homer attempts to coach Bart in miniature golf.

Homer: Keep your head down, follow through.

[Bart putts and misses]

Homer: Okay, that didn't work.  This time, move your head and don't follow through.


Democrats are experiencing something like that in the aftermath of the election. That is, the misbegotten belief that we would have won if we'd simply done the opposite of everything we did or did not do. This belief is wrong but has taken hold in the party to the point of mass delusion.

Kamala Harris ran a virtually flawless campaign. Before she became the nominee, her approval rating stood at 38%. By October, it had risen to 45%, exceeding that of Donald Trump. Her biggest accomplishment was pulling virtually even with Trump on the question of whom voters trust more on the economy; Trump had led Biden by 15% on that metric. Harris handily defeated Trump in their lone debate. She also raised a staggering $1.5 billion from donors, putting Republicans at a considerable resource deficit. On the issues on which she campaigned, she had overwhelming bipartisan support. And she did it all in just over 100 days.

The truth is, it was always extremely unlikely Democrats could win in 2024. Two reasons:
1. No party in power has ever won another term given such dismal voter sentiment. Specifically:
* 52% of voters say they are worse off than they were four years ago.
* Nearly half of voters say the economy was the most important issue of the election. But 75% rate the economy as fair or poor, only 25% as excellent are good. And 62% say the economy is getting worse.

2. The pandemic. From Cooper Burton of ABC News: "Among democracies that held elections this year, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose seats or vote share from the last election. That includes democracies of all kinds and in all corners of the globe."

And yes, I predicted Harris would win, despite an environment that I'm now describing as extremely unfavorable to her. I still think my call for Harris was reasonable under the circumstances. The polls underestimated Trump's support for the third consecutive election.

But as soon as the vote came in, the second guessing of Democratic strategy started. And Democrats, progressive thinkers and other pundits all seem to have the same reaction: Harris would have won if only she'd taken the opposite tack on one important issue or another. And of course no one offering this sage advice can agree with anyone else.

1. According to Pete Buttigieg, the campaign was too online, and did not make enough in-person connections.
The Daily Show's Jon Stewart says the opposite, mocking the Harris campaign for too much direct contact with swing-state voters.

2. Senator Bernie Sanders says the problem is that Harris abandoned the working class by not running to the left and talking more about social justice.
Senator John Fetterman says Harris should have run harder to the right, talking more about border security.

3. Some say Harris needed to embrace the Palestinian movement.
On the contrary others say Harris needed to distance herself from the Palestinian movement.

4. Or, you name it:
Harris was sunk by "woke" issues. (Never mind that Harris did not run on woke issues at all).
Harris needed to talk less about abortion.
Harris should not have asked billionaires to campaign with her.
Harris should not have tried to win over Republicans by campaigning with Liz Cheney.
Harris spent too much on celebrity appearances.


I thought this noise would die down after a few days, but it hasn't. I just read an article from Lucian K. Truscott IV on nationalmemo.com explaining that the problem was that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz were too cheerful. Yes, you read that right. "Kamala Harris’ smile, on display everywhere she went, was genuine. So was Tim Walz’s jolly demeanor. But voters didn’t want someone nice to take command of an economy and a country they saw as failing them." So Harris should have stopped smiling and being positive. Anything else?

Yes. According to Democratic pundit James Carville this weekend, if Joe Biden had dropped out sooner, Democrats would have won the election, "And it wouldn’t have been that close because we would have had so many frickin’ talented people that were running." So apparently the problem was that the nominee was not someone other than Harris herself. For the record, polls taken around the time Biden dropped out did not show any potential Democratic nominees other than Harris polling any better than she did against Trump.

Exactly twenty years ago, I was devastated by John Kerry's loss and did not know how to move forward. But Democrats found a way. And Donald Trump's second term is shaping up to be a complete complete train wreck as he appoints a cabinet made up entirely of insane criminals, conspiracy theorists and sexual predators, while at the same time embracing tariffs and deportations that will wreck the economy. If Trump does enough damage, the Democratic party will start performing better even if it can't find another Barrack Obama.

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2024 Final Predictions. I'm Calling It A Blue Wave. Here's Why.

Harris to win the electoral college 325 to 213.

Here's why I'm calling all the swing states for Harris:
** More than one-third of the vote is already in. We know the demographics of which groups are turning out in force and which are not. We also have high-quality exit polls.
** Women are voting far more than men. Even a massive turnout by men on election day is hardly likely to close the gap. Harris leads female voters by 14% while Trump leads by only 6% with men.

** The vote is showing extraordinary crossover support for Harris by registered Republicans. Here's an example:
North Carolina:
Actual early voters: 55% Harris, 43% Trump, 3% others
Early voter party ID: Dem 33%, GOP 34%, Ind 33%
- Assuming virtually Democrats and about 60% of independents are voting for Harris, to get to 55% of the total vote Harris must be getting in excess of 10% of Republicans. PA and WI show similar rates of defection of Republican voters. The rate is even higher in AZ, GA and MI.

** Harris is doing well with the most crucial voting block: seniors. Minorities are not defecting to Trump the way Republicans have hoped. Younger men are not turning out the way Trump needs.

** Harris has outstanding get-out-the-vote operations. Trump's are a disaster.

** Harris has a massive fundraising lead.

** Democrats are way ahead in voter enthusiasm in a key Gallup poll.

** Late-deciders are breaking for Harris.

** And finally, a bombshell poll dropped yesterday: Harris by 3% in Iowa. This is from the highly-respected Selzer organization, who, for example, correctly predicted that Trump would win Iowa by 14% in 2020. If Harris is doing anything like as well as this poll suggests, Democrats will have a good night on Tuesday.

The Senate

Current Senate: 51 D, 49 R

New Senate: 50 D, 50 R

This forecast for the Senate may be overly-optimistic, but here we go.
* The Republicans will pick up West Virginia.
* Jon Tester has survived close contests before in Montana, but I think this one is out of reach. The Republican will probably win. (Or maybe Tester survives but we lose NV or OH).
* I'm calling Texas for Democrat Colin Allred. The polls are within the margin of error, and I expect Harris to lose Texas by only 3 points or so. That's close enough for Allred to knock off Ted Cruz, whom nobody likes.

The House

Current House: 221 R, 214 D

New House: 222 D, 213 R

Gubernatorial

Democrats to pickup North Carolina.

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