Secretary of State Brian Kemp of Georgia just stole the election for Governor, and got away scot-free. He beat Democrat Stacy Abrams by about 55,000 votes out of nearly four million cast. Kemp stole the election by using the power of his office to make sure that voters unlikely to support him in his gubernatorial race lost their franchise. The scheme went like this:
* In 2017, (from Greg Palast of Truthout), "Brian Kemp, Georgia’s secretary of state canceled the registrations of over half a million Georgians because they left the state or moved to another county. Except they didn’t. The nation’s top experts in address location reviewed Kemp’s list of purged voters — and returned the names and addresses of 340,134 who never moved at all."
How does the scam work? It's "purge by postcard," used in Georgia and other mostly Republican-controlled states, and it disproportionately affects poor and minority voters who tend to vote Democratic. Again from Greg Palast: "If you miss an election, Kemp sends you a postcard. It looks like junk mail. But if you read the block of print carefully, it asks you to return the card to Kemp after you’ve filled in the address that’s already on the front of the card."
"However, in June of this year, the Supreme Court said election officials can purge voters if they miss elections and don’t return that postcard, but only if the failure to return the postcard is a reasonable indication the voter has moved."
"Kemp has steadfastly refused to look at evidence that would show a voter has not moved. (Heck, Kemp didn’t even wonder why the purged voters paid Georgia taxes if they had left the state.)"
Note that voters do not receive any notification when they are purged.
* Kemp put 53,000 new voter registration applications, mostly from black voters, on hold using Georgia's "exact match" registration verification process, which requires information on voter applications to precisely match information on file with the Georgia Department of Driver Services or the Social Security Administration. "Mismatches" occur under the law, (from Shannon Van Sant of NPR, "for such reasons as missing hyphens, accent marks and middle initials. Those who are flagged can still vote ("provisonally") if they settle the discrepancy by providing proof of identity."
So let's say you try to vote provisionally. Guess what? That system is broken. When Phoebe Einzig-Roth went to vote in Georgia, from Eliza Carney of The American Prospect, "Einzig-Roth —who was born in New York and grew up in Boston—was told that "she might not be a citizen of the United States," and was directed to a supervising official. That official ultimately handed her a provisional ballot, but gave her no receipt, and no instructions on how to ensure that it would be counted. Einzig-Roth’s confusion turned to anger when she later tried to verify her eligibility, and was rebuffed for the lack of a receipt. "THIS is what voter suppression looks like in Georgia,” she fumed in a widely-circulated Facebook post."
More problems: (Again from Greg Palast on Salon.com)
"My team went to the campus of Emory University on Tuesday night, where nearly all the students who showed up to vote were black (although Emory is not a historically or predominantly black institution). Long lines kept the polls open until 10 p.m., and they ran out of provisional ballots by 4. When Kemp’s office sent over a stack, students filled out more than 100 provisionals in this precinct alone. And that was just one of thousands in the state."
"How many provisional ballots were cast in this election? Given the number of purged voters, given the arcane rule of "exact match" of driver’s license data and voter forms, given Georgia’s racially targeted voter ID laws – I could go on – it’s reasonable to project provisional ballots reaching 50,000."
"Then there are voters like Yasmin Bakhtiari of Atlanta, who tried to vote and was flatly denied even a provisional ballot — she asked three times within two hours — in direct violation of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA).
They tried to do that to Ashlee Jones in DeKalb County. She had registered to vote twice on Kemp’s website and got no confirmation. Jones was told she could not even get a provisional ballot. (I admit I got a little heavy with the precinct officials, and turned on the cameras. Jones got her provisional ballot. But that tiny victory was Pyrrhic: She knows Kemp or his replacement is likely to shred it.) Our researcher Rachel Garbus called several rural counties whose supervisors told her that no purged voter would get a provisional ballot, only those who "deserved" it. Having witnessed the scary Kemp-Trump rally last Sunday, I can tell you the color of "deserving" voters.
So far, it appears that most provisional ballots, and stacks of absentee ballots, have simply been rejected. Yet there is zero evidence that even one of these voters who signed their ballot envelopes under penalty of perjury is not a qualified voter."
Were Georgia's provisional ballots ultimately counted in a legal manner? It's not entirely clear. On the one hand, the state, to its credit, instructed county election officials to count absentee ballots even if they lack a voter’s date of birth, as long as the voter’s identity can be verified. But State Election Board member David Worley, a Democrat, said he was, "deeply disturbed" by the Secretary of State's instructions . "It makes it sound permissive, that counties can reject an absentee ballot if they want to," Worley said. "It’s a cheap, underhanded trick to allow some counties to reject ballots that federal law requires that they count. Frankly, I think it’s despicable."
* Finally Georgia doesn't ignore the classic voter suppression tactics. From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "One-third of Georgia’s counties — 53 of 159 — have fewer precincts today than they did in 2012, according to the AJC’s count. Of the counties that have closed voting locations, 39 have poverty rates that are higher than the state average. Thirty have significant African-American populations, making up at least 25 percent of residents."
Though Stacy Abrams lost her race for Governor, she isn't giving up the fight for the right to vote in Georgia. From Richard Fausset of the New York Times, "Allies of Stacey Abrams, the Democrat who narrowly lost the Georgia governor’s race, filed a federal lawsuit on Tuesday calling for sweeping changes to the state’s election procedures, and accusing Brian Kemp, the Republican victor, of systematically disenfranchising poor and minority voters when he was secretary of state."
"The lawsuit...would seek "wide, large-scale reforms" to improve future elections. One of its demands is for renewed federal oversight to protect minority voting rights."
Lack of federal oversight is definitely a problem. In 2013, the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Acts, and the outcome has been predictable. Rob Arthur and Allison McCann of VICE.com noted recently that the end of federal oversight has precipitated the widespread closing of polling places in states where voter suppression was the norm during the 20th century:
"VICE News found that for every 10 polling places that closed in the rest of the country, 13 closed within the jurisdictions once under oversight. Policies that introduce barriers to voting — like Texas’ strict voter ID requirements and North Carolina’s elimination of same-day registration and limits on early voting — have been widely criticized for discouraging minority voters, who disproportionately vote Democratic. The vast majority of the jurisdictions once under federal supervision are in states with GOP leadership."
On a separate note, there's good news from another southern state with a long history of disenfranchising minority voters. Did you know that one out of every ten voting-age residents of Florida is a convicted felon? In that state "grand theft" of $300 or more is a felony, and felons permanently lose the right to vote. This has long been an easy way for Florida Republicans to keep the poor and minorities from voting. In November, Florida voters approved a ballot measure restoring voting rights to citizens convicted of certain felonies after they have served their sentences, including prison terms, parole and probationary periods. Florida Republicans are dragging their feet about implementing the new law, but appear to be resigned to let it go into effect.
Sunday, December 23, 2018
Saturday, December 22, 2018
Predictions: 2020 US Senate Races
Recent Updates: AK, GA-special, IA, MI
Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats
Current Prediction: 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
Republicans to pickup AL
Democrats to pickup AZ, CO, ME, NC and two of the following:
AK, GA, IA, KS, KY, MT, SC
Overview: (12/22/18) To gain control of the Senate in 2020, Democrats need to net at least four seats. That is, given that there's nearly a 100% chance that incumbent Democrat Doug Jones will lose in Alabama, four pickups for the blue team would mean 50 Senators each for both parties, with Democrats holding the tie-breaker presuming they win the Presidency. A very difficult task, but not impossible.Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats
Current Prediction: 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
Republicans to pickup AL
Democrats to pickup AZ, CO, ME, NC and two of the following:
AK, GA, IA, KS, KY, MT, SC
If you'd like to read what I wrote about this same class of Senators the last time they were up for reelection in 2014, click here. Races are categorized as either likely or unlikely to be competitive. This post will be updated continuously through election day.
Races likely to be competitive:
Alabama
Rating: Likely Republican pickup
Democrat: Doug Jones (incumbent)
Republican: Former Senator Jeff Sessions or football coach Tommy Tuberville
Overview: (12/22/18) Doug Jones ran in a special election to fill Alabama's open seat in 2017, and in a year that favored Democrats and against a Republican who is an insane, criminal pedophile, Jones still won by only 1.7%. There just isn't a plausible scenario where Jones wins this race.
(7/11/19) Republicans aren't thrilled that pedophile Roy Moore is running for this seat again, but I think they have little to worry about it. The chances of Moore getting the nomination are small, and I think if he someone got, he'd probably win.
(12/9/19) Jeff Sessions wants his old job back. He'll probably get it.
(5/10/20) The race for the GOP nomination is a runoff, with Sessions and Tuberville tied in polls. This race is more about Jones being able to keep the race close enough (will certainly still losing) to force Republicans to burn some capital here.
Alaska
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: Dan Sullivan (incumbent)
Democrat: Dr. Al Gross
Overview: (7/10/20) Cool! I almost never get to move a race from the 'noncompetitive' list to the 'competitive' list just a few month before the election. A new poll shows that Alaska is another state where the Republican ticket has reached a tipping point: Biden trails Trump by only 3, and little-known surgeon Dr. Al Gross trails Dan Sullivan by only 5. The same poll tantalizingly shows Democrat Alyse Galvin actually leading Don Young for Alaska's lone US House seat. (Young is the "Dean" of the House, having been in office since 1973.)
Arizona (special to fill the remaining two years of John McCain's term)
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Appointed incumbent Martha McSally
Democrat: Astronaut Mark Kelly (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) McSally was appointed to this seat despite losing the open Senate seat race in Arizona in 2018, a somewhat odd choice given that she ran a poor campaign and the voters took a pass on her. I expect Arizona to be competitive at the Presidential level.
(7/11/19) The field seems to be clear for astronaut and husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords to capture this nomination. I'm skeptical of the idea of a political novice running for US Senate, but polling shows this race a toss up and Kelly has a good chance to win.
(5/10/20) Arizona turning blue: Kelly and Biden both lead in current polls.
Colorado
Rating: Likely Democratic pickup
Republican: Cory Gardner (incumbent)
Democrat: Former Governor John Hickenlooper (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) In 2014, Democratic heavyweight picked the wrong year to run a bad campaign, and lost to right-winger Cory Gardner by 2% in what is increasingly a blue state. Colorado is the number one Democratic target.
(12/9/19) Former Govenor John Hickenlooper is in. He's almost a lock to win this race.
Georgia
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: David Perdue (incumbent)
Democrat: Journalist Jon Ossoff (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) Democrats have been making a lot of noise in trying to turn red-state Georgia more competitive, yet they continue to lose. A strong candidate for the blue team will make this a competitive race, but again, Georgia is still a red state, and incredibly effective in suppressing the Democratic vote.
(12/9/19) No top-tier Democrat has announced; should be easy for Perdue.
(5/10/20) Democrat Jon Ossoff is a good fundraiser and good at seizing the news cycle. This race will be competitive but it will take a Democratic tidal wave (including Biden carrying Georgia) for Ossoff to win.
Georgia (special to fill the remaining two years of Johnny Isakson's term)
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: appointed incumbent Kelly Loeffler Or Congressman Doug Collins (likely)
Democrat: The Reverend Ralph Warnock?
Overview: (1/29/20) Democrats are sanguine about running a competitive race against Trump in Georgia. On paper, that should also make this Senate race competitive. But until a top-tier Democrat announces for this race, Republicans are favored. One thing to make this interesting: The November election will be "jungle" style, with all candidates on one ticket and the top-two finishers forced to a runoff if no one gets 50% of the vote. A runoff is likely with two Republicans in the race.
(5/10/20) Collins is the likely nominee for the GOP, as Loeffler is mired in an insider stock trading scandal. The Democrats running are nobodies (Senator Joe Lieberman's son?); this seat is safe for the GOP.
(7/10/20) Democrat Ralph Warnock is polling pretty well vs. the scandal-plagued Kelly Loeffler, but I'm not sanguine about Democrats' chances here. First there's some possibility that Republicans Loeffler and Collins will actually finish first and second in the November primary, creating a runoff between the two. Second, a runoff election between a Republican and a Democrat will tend to favor the GOP.
Iowa
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Joni Ernst (incumbent)
Democrat: Businesswoman Theresa Greenfield
Overview: (12/22/18) Senator Tom Harkin was a hero of mine. When he retired in 2014, it looked at first like this would be an easy hold for Democrats. Then we were introduced to Joni Ernst. Among her many fine qualities, she opposed the Farm Bill, and she wants to abolish minimum wage, privatize social security, and prohibit same-sex marriage. On paper Ernst is beatable. On the other hand, Iowa's incredibly bad Republican Governor Kim Reynolds was just reelected, so I really don't have much hope for this race.
(7/11/19) Trump's trade war is deeply unpopular in Iowa. That should give hope to the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020, but I'm not holding out for that to spell trouble for Joni Ernst. Ernst is a very adept politician with a surprisingly high approval rating, and it increasingly appears that she'll face a third-tier opponent in 2020.
(12/9/19) Ernst has been revealed as flagrantly violating campaign finance law. But I'm not holding out an hope that Iowans are going to get their sanity back any time soon. How's that trade war working out for you?
(5/10/20) A recent poll shows the virtually unknown Theresa Greenfield only a point behind Ernst, and Biden trailing Trump by only two in Iowa. With Trump's reelection prospects starting to look like those of Iowa's own Herbert Hoover in 1932, I'm starting to have hope for this seat to go blue.
(7/29/20) Interesting thing about the last Des Moines Register poll. I've assumed that the only way for Greenfield to win is for Biden to carry Iowa for a big enough margin to compensate for conservative voters who refuse to support Trump but still vote for Ernst. But the DMR poll suggests this is not a concern - it shows Trump leading Biden by 1, but Greenfield leading Ernst by 3. If Ernst is that unpopular, I've reason to be optimistic Greenfield will win.
Kansas
Rating: Leans Republican hold
Republican: State Treasurer Jake LaTurner or former Secretary of State Kris Kobach (incumbent Pat Roberts retiring)
Democrat: State Senator Barbara Bollier (likely)
Overview: (12/22/18) Democrats haven't elected a Senator in Kansas since 1932. There is however a possibility that Roberts will retire, and while even an open-seat race is unlikely to be competitive, a strong third-party candidacy could shake things up. In 2014, Roberts was widely expected to lose to independent Greg Orman, but alas that was not to be.
(7/11/19) A lot of Kansas Republicans would like to be rid of Kris Kobach, who lost them to 2018 gubernatorial race and who has been fined by a federal judge for making "patently misleading representations to the court" regarding his insane theories about voter fraud. But like a bad penny, Kobach keeps turning up and may capture the Senate nomination. For the Democrats to have a chance here it will probably require Kobach as the GOP nominee, a Democrat who runs a flawless campaign, and probably a third-party candidacy that draws disaffected Republicans away from Kobach. Don't count on all that happening.
(5/10/20) There's every indication Kobach will be the GOP nominee. Democrat Bollier leads him in two recent polls. We could see polls showing the Democratic nominee leading right up to election day and I'd be disinclined to believe them.
Kentucky
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Mitch McConnell (incumbent)
Democrat: Marine Corps pilot Amy McGrath
Overview: (12/22/18) In 2008 McConnell was nearly beaten by third-tier candidate Democrat Bruce Lunsford. If the blue team had nominated a stronger candidate, they would have won. Too bad. And in 2014 McConnell faced a surprisingly strong challenge from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. But Kentucky has moved hard to the right, and McConnell is Senate majority leader.
(7/11/19) It's great to see Amy McGrath challenge McConnell. I'm sure she'll give him a run for his money. But while McConnell has an approval rating lower than most diseases, he's still highly likely to win.
Maine:
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: Susan Collins (incumbent).
Democrat: State Speaker of the House Sarah Gideon
Overview: (12/22/18) Democrats think Collins is vulnerable. They've thought that before, and always been wrong.
(12/9/19) Collins' approval rating has plummeted. An October poll showed her trailing a generic Democrat. Democrats should finally get the competitive race against Collins they've been hoping for.
(5/10/20) Gideon is polling well. Polls are also suggesting Biden could carry Maine by double digits; a 10-point margin at the top of the ticket would virtually guarantee a Democratic victory in this race.
Michigan
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Gary Peters (incumbent)
Republican: Businessman John James
Overview: (12/9/19) This race is probably a lock, but that's what they said about Hillary Clinton winning Michigan in 2016.
(7/29/20) The GOP has a good candidate in John James. If this were the 2014 election, there's a good chance he'd win. But polls indicate that Biden is ahead about 8 points in Michigan so Peters is pretty safe.
Minnesota
Rating: Likely Democratic hold
Democrat: Tina Smith (incumbent)
Republican: ?
Overview: Donald Trump nearly carried Minnesota in 2016, but in 2018 the state seemed to recover from its swing to the right, and I doubt Smith will be in trouble in 2020.
Montana
Rating: Toss up
Republican: Steve Daines (incumbent)
Democrat: Governor Steve Bullock
Overview: (12/9/19) Democrats somewhat improbably hold the Governor's office and the other Senate seat in Montana, so maybe a really great candidate could beat Daines? It's not impossible.
(5/10/20): Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is owning the news cycle every day with his state's excellent response to the covid crisis. He's ahead in recent polls. If Biden can lose Montana by only a few points to Trump (and polls suggest he can), Bullock look good to win this race.
North Carolina
Rating: Leans Democratic pickup
Republican: State House Speaker Thom Tillis
Democrat: Former state Senator Cal Cunningham (likely)
Libertarian: ?
Overview: (12/22/18) North Carolina incumbent Senators lose a lot when they run for reelection. Democrats intend to pull out all the stops to win this one, as there just aren't a lot of incumbent Republicans who appear vulnerable.
(7/11/19) Tillis must be unpopular indeed; two recent polls show him losing to two Democrats who don't have particularly high name recognition.
(5/10/20) North Carolina's other Republican Senator Richard Burr is mired in a stock trading scandal. Burr isn't Tillis, but some of the negativity of the Burr scandal may be spreading, as Cunningham is showing large leads in the polls against Tillis. Recent polls even show Biden carrying North Carolina. Feeling good about this one.
South Carolina
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: Lindsey Graham (incumbent)
Democrat: DNC Associate Chairman Jaime Harrison
Overview: (7/11/19) If this race is competitive, it's probably the Republican primary that makes it so. Lindsey Graham seems to have lost his mind. Of course, since when do Republicans care about that? Possibly a big name will emerge to challenge him for the nomination.
(5/10/20) Jaime Harrison is running a fine campaign. He's not going to win, but I think he'll force Republicans to waste resources here that they'd rather spend somewhere else.
Tennessee:
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Lamar Alexander retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview: This open-seat race is competitive in name only. Democrats thought they finally had a chance in Tennessee in 2018 when popular former Governor Phil Bredesen ran in the open-seat Senate race against ultra-righ-winger Marsha Blackburn. Yet Bredesen lost by over 10%.
Wyoming:
Rating: Likely Republican hold
Republican: ? (incumbent Mike Enzi retiring)
Democrat: ?
Overview: (7/11/19) Another open-seat race competitive in name only. The sun may go red giant before the Democrats win a Senate race in Wyoming. The fact that not one of the Democrats being talked about for this nomination is a current office holder should tell you something.
Races unlikely to become competitive:
Arkansas: Republican Tom Cotton incumbent. Unbeatable.
Delaware: Democrat Chris Coons incumbent. The Republican party is no longer much of a competitor in Delaware.
Hawai'i: Democrat Brian Schatz incumbent. Unbeatable.
Idaho: Republican Jim Risch incumbent. Unbeatable.
Illinois: Democrat Dick Durbin incumbent. Unbeatable.
Louisiana: Republican Bill Cassidy incumbent. It's funny that Cassidy is the first Republican to hold this seat since reconstruction, because it's hard to imagine a Democrat ever winning here again.
Massachusetts: Democrat Ed Markey incumbent. Unbeatable.
Mississippi: Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith incumbent. Hyde-Smith just won a special election to this seat in 2018, and now that the voters have gotten used to her there's no chance the Democrats are going to make this one competitive.
Nebraska: Republican Ben Sasse incumbent. Sasse is a "moderate", in that he supports everything Trump does while criticizing him on Twitter. Democrats did worse than hoped in Nebraska in 2018, and I think it will be a long time before we win a statewide election there.
New Hampshire: Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen incumbent. New Hampshire is trending blue.
New Jersey: Democrat: Cory Booker incumbent. Unbeatable.
New Mexico: Democrat Tom Udall incumbent. Udall has avoided any controversies that would tend to bring his approval ratings down, and the Republican bench in New Mexico is so thin you practically can’t see it.
Oklahoma: Republican James Inhofe incumbent. Inhofe will be 86 years old. Can't we please, please be spared another six years of the man who calls climate change the, "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people"?
Oregon: Democrat Jeff Merkley incumbent. The Oregon GOP is totally inept, and Trump unpopularity on the west coast isn't doing them any favors.
Rhode Island: Democrat Jack Reed incumbent. Blue-state Rhode Island is, if possible, becoming even more blue. Reed is one of the most popular, if least talked about, members of the Senate.
South Dakota: Republican Mike Rounds incumbent. Barring some kind of third-party candidacy that can take a lot of Republican votes from Rounds, I can't see a scenario where he loses.
Texas: Republican John Cornyn incumbent. Texas is slowly moving from red-state to purple-state, but Cornyn has little to worry about. As Republican Senators go, his crazy-quotient is fairly low.
Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner incumbent. Warner’s popularity makes him a good bet for another term, Virginia continues to trend blue.
West Virginia: Republican Shelley Moore Capito incumbent. Few West Virginians vote Democratic in Presidential election years.
Labels:
2020,
Election Predictions,
US Senate Races
Sunday, December 16, 2018
The Eclipse of American Democracy, Lucky Part Thirteen: Republican Sore-Loser Power Grabs
In an earlier post in this series, I discussed how in the mid-20th century, the nation of South Africa transformed from a country people thought of as a democracy (at least for whites) into a dictatorial, fascist junta supported by only a small fraction of the population. What happened in South Africa was not supposed to be a model for 21st-century America, but in the wake of November's elections several states dominated by Republicans are doing everything they can think of to continue to spite the will of the people.
One of my favorite observations on these recent developments comes from Jason Sattler in USA Today, "Republicans have given up on voters. America's future depends on whether Democrats can expand voting rights faster than the GOP can restrict them."
This is the thread that ties together everything I've discussed in this series on the many threats to America's democratic institutions. White, conservative Americans now see that in their lifetimes people of color will become a majority in this country, and they also see that the new multicultural majority is rejecting the neo-liberal politics of Ronald Reagan that seek to perpetually grow power for the wealthy while brutalizing the poor. And the old conservative white hegemony does not intend to let a little thing like democracy curtail their power.
Back to Jason Sattler for an overview of what Republicans in Wisconsin and Michigan since Democrats were elected as the next Governors of those two states:
"The GOP’s smash-and-grab "lame duck" agenda in the Badger and Wolverine states has unfolded rapidly and is blatantly aimed at keeping the right’s rejected policies in place long after Democrats are sworn in. This sort of disdain for the will of voters is possible in large part due the scourge of partisan gerrymandering that's likely illegal.
These unfair electoral maps gave the GOP huge majorities in the Wisconsin and Michigan legislatures when the party barely carried the states in 2016. Last month those maps helped them keep control of both state legislatures, even as Democrats won statewide offices from governor on down."
The changes in the law just signed by defeated incumbent Governor Scott Walker weaken incoming Democratic Governor Tony Evers' ability to put in place rules that enact laws and shield the state jobs agency from his control. They also weaken the attorney general's office (voters elected a Democrat to that office too) and handcuff the ability of the incoming administration to implement the Affordable Care Act. The icing on the cake: Republicans also decided to limit early voting, of course. And Republicans in the state legislature have little to fear from the voters in term of possible backlash to their power grab; gerrymandering of state House districts locks most of them in for as long as they care to stay in office. In last month's election, Republicans held 63 of 99 seats despite Democratic candidates receiving 190,000 more votes statewide.
And say, what justifications have Wisconsin Republican suggested for these power grabs? Well, Robin Vos, the Republican speaker of the Assembly said that in the past, "we made mistakes where we granted too much power to the executive." Yes, he's suddenly realized the Governor has too much power just as a Republican is about to be replaced by a Democrat. But it's all justified as, "We are going to have a very liberal governor who is going to enact policies that are in direct contrast to what many of us believe in."
Meanwhile, (back to Jason Sattler again):
"Republicans in Michigan, where I live, are also trying to deny Democrats elected to statewide constitutional offices the powers that their GOP predecessors took for granted. For instance, they’re trying to take away the secretary of state’s ability to enforce campaign finance laws after (Democrat) Jocelyn Benson was elected secretary of state on a platform of — you guessed it! — better oversight of campaign finance.
But that’s not nearly the most rotten thing going on in Michigan.
Faced with ballot initiatives that would have raised the minimum wage and established earned sick leave for all the state’s workers, Republicans instead passed both proposals last summer as a way to keep them off the ballot and make them easier to change. Now, surprise, they have amended those laws to deny the sick leave to 1 million workers, and slow the rise of the lowest acceptable wage to $12 by 2030 instead of 2022 and, for tipped workers, to $4.58 by 2030 instead of $12 by 2024."
Paul Krugman of the New York Times has also recently discussed how Wisconsin has become, "a state that may hold elections, but where elections don’t matter, because the ruling party retains control no matter what voters do." And he offers the significant observation that, "As far as I can tell, not a single prominent Republican in Washington has condemned the power grab in Wisconsin, the similar grab in Michigan, or even what looks like outright electoral fraud in North Carolina. Elected Republicans don’t just increasingly share the values of white nationalist parties like (Hungary's) Fidesz or Poland’s Law and Justice; they also share those parties’ contempt for democracy. The G.O.P. is an authoritarian party in waiting."
Krugman mentioned North Carolina. Yes, once again we turn to the state where Republicans seem most determined to destroy any semblance of democratic process. A new election is expected in the district in which Republican Mark Harris is credibly accused of hiring operatives who altered and illegally handled ballots.
But last month's election produced some good news regarding the continuing efforts of the Republican legislature to cement control of North Carolina despite the election of a Democratic governor last year. From Tierney Sneed of Talking Points Memo: "A Democrat beat the GOP incumbent for the state Supreme Court, after a failed Republican attempt to rig the election in favor of the incumbent judge. The GOP ballot initiatives that sought to usurp executive power from the Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper were defeated. Whether the GOP will maintain control of both legislative chambers is still too close to call. But it appears that the Republican super-majority— which has allowed the legislature to override Cooper’s vetoes — has been broken."
Finally a suggestion from Paul Krugman on how Democrats can take advantage of public disapproval of the sore-loser power grabs:
"If Democrats can offer a unifying indictment tying Republican attacks on democratic norms to Trump administration abuses, along with a coherent package of serious proposals to restore procedural fairness, voters will have a way of making sense of new examples of Republican sharp dealing. Proposals to shorten lame duck legislative sessions and to constrain their authority, for example, would reinforce the idea that Republicans have been the party of procedural abuses and unfairness while still setting forth a good neutral rule.
This is the alternative to doing nothing or making things worse: seek to punish Republicans in 2020 by offering a vision of how to make things better."
One of my favorite observations on these recent developments comes from Jason Sattler in USA Today, "Republicans have given up on voters. America's future depends on whether Democrats can expand voting rights faster than the GOP can restrict them."
This is the thread that ties together everything I've discussed in this series on the many threats to America's democratic institutions. White, conservative Americans now see that in their lifetimes people of color will become a majority in this country, and they also see that the new multicultural majority is rejecting the neo-liberal politics of Ronald Reagan that seek to perpetually grow power for the wealthy while brutalizing the poor. And the old conservative white hegemony does not intend to let a little thing like democracy curtail their power.
Back to Jason Sattler for an overview of what Republicans in Wisconsin and Michigan since Democrats were elected as the next Governors of those two states:
"The GOP’s smash-and-grab "lame duck" agenda in the Badger and Wolverine states has unfolded rapidly and is blatantly aimed at keeping the right’s rejected policies in place long after Democrats are sworn in. This sort of disdain for the will of voters is possible in large part due the scourge of partisan gerrymandering that's likely illegal.
These unfair electoral maps gave the GOP huge majorities in the Wisconsin and Michigan legislatures when the party barely carried the states in 2016. Last month those maps helped them keep control of both state legislatures, even as Democrats won statewide offices from governor on down."
The changes in the law just signed by defeated incumbent Governor Scott Walker weaken incoming Democratic Governor Tony Evers' ability to put in place rules that enact laws and shield the state jobs agency from his control. They also weaken the attorney general's office (voters elected a Democrat to that office too) and handcuff the ability of the incoming administration to implement the Affordable Care Act. The icing on the cake: Republicans also decided to limit early voting, of course. And Republicans in the state legislature have little to fear from the voters in term of possible backlash to their power grab; gerrymandering of state House districts locks most of them in for as long as they care to stay in office. In last month's election, Republicans held 63 of 99 seats despite Democratic candidates receiving 190,000 more votes statewide.
And say, what justifications have Wisconsin Republican suggested for these power grabs? Well, Robin Vos, the Republican speaker of the Assembly said that in the past, "we made mistakes where we granted too much power to the executive." Yes, he's suddenly realized the Governor has too much power just as a Republican is about to be replaced by a Democrat. But it's all justified as, "We are going to have a very liberal governor who is going to enact policies that are in direct contrast to what many of us believe in."
Meanwhile, (back to Jason Sattler again):
"Republicans in Michigan, where I live, are also trying to deny Democrats elected to statewide constitutional offices the powers that their GOP predecessors took for granted. For instance, they’re trying to take away the secretary of state’s ability to enforce campaign finance laws after (Democrat) Jocelyn Benson was elected secretary of state on a platform of — you guessed it! — better oversight of campaign finance.
But that’s not nearly the most rotten thing going on in Michigan.
Faced with ballot initiatives that would have raised the minimum wage and established earned sick leave for all the state’s workers, Republicans instead passed both proposals last summer as a way to keep them off the ballot and make them easier to change. Now, surprise, they have amended those laws to deny the sick leave to 1 million workers, and slow the rise of the lowest acceptable wage to $12 by 2030 instead of 2022 and, for tipped workers, to $4.58 by 2030 instead of $12 by 2024."
Paul Krugman of the New York Times has also recently discussed how Wisconsin has become, "a state that may hold elections, but where elections don’t matter, because the ruling party retains control no matter what voters do." And he offers the significant observation that, "As far as I can tell, not a single prominent Republican in Washington has condemned the power grab in Wisconsin, the similar grab in Michigan, or even what looks like outright electoral fraud in North Carolina. Elected Republicans don’t just increasingly share the values of white nationalist parties like (Hungary's) Fidesz or Poland’s Law and Justice; they also share those parties’ contempt for democracy. The G.O.P. is an authoritarian party in waiting."
Krugman mentioned North Carolina. Yes, once again we turn to the state where Republicans seem most determined to destroy any semblance of democratic process. A new election is expected in the district in which Republican Mark Harris is credibly accused of hiring operatives who altered and illegally handled ballots.
But last month's election produced some good news regarding the continuing efforts of the Republican legislature to cement control of North Carolina despite the election of a Democratic governor last year. From Tierney Sneed of Talking Points Memo: "A Democrat beat the GOP incumbent for the state Supreme Court, after a failed Republican attempt to rig the election in favor of the incumbent judge. The GOP ballot initiatives that sought to usurp executive power from the Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper were defeated. Whether the GOP will maintain control of both legislative chambers is still too close to call. But it appears that the Republican super-majority— which has allowed the legislature to override Cooper’s vetoes — has been broken."
Finally a suggestion from Paul Krugman on how Democrats can take advantage of public disapproval of the sore-loser power grabs:
"If Democrats can offer a unifying indictment tying Republican attacks on democratic norms to Trump administration abuses, along with a coherent package of serious proposals to restore procedural fairness, voters will have a way of making sense of new examples of Republican sharp dealing. Proposals to shorten lame duck legislative sessions and to constrain their authority, for example, would reinforce the idea that Republicans have been the party of procedural abuses and unfairness while still setting forth a good neutral rule.
This is the alternative to doing nothing or making things worse: seek to punish Republicans in 2020 by offering a vision of how to make things better."
Labels:
2018,
elections,
michigan,
North Carolina,
Paul Krugman,
Scott Walker,
sore-loser,
Wisconsin
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